Is the UK heading for a double-dip recession?

MSE_Martin

Paul and Maytid - I dont think you're disagreeing that much its a question of teminology.

As I wrote in a blog (aimed at much more mass market than the two of you) http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2008/11/28/recessionll-end-soon-the-joy-of-maths/

The fact is under the general definition we are out of recession - but we are not out of the woods, things are nothing close to being back to the boom time. The economy has stopped shrinking by the extent that was due, but that certainly doesn't mean the good times are back (or the borrowed good times are back)

charlee

I have no economic / financial quaifications, however here is my tuppence worth...

Terminology asside, I do think things will get worse over the next 12 months. For many of the reasons listed already.

From a personal perspective, I have a small child and have struggled to find part time work to complement my new role as a mother - my full time employer was only too happy to refuse my request to be part time, which saved them the trouble of paying me off with redundancy (which in fairness has happened twice in my former company). Of course part time I am looking at earning about 1/3 of my previous income pro rata - as often part time jobs just dont pay big bucks. We are looking to have another baby - we always wanted 2 - but are now seriously reconsidering due to finances.

I am struggling to find another job and am on an agency - so income is sporadic and you cant be sure if you will remain in active employment day to day, and as the govmt have said 20% VAT from Jan plus the freeze on child benefit and cap on child tax credits - I find myself budgetting harder than ever and doing my best to preserve the family savings at all costs.

In turn I am not making any extravagant purchases (I am now growing my hair so save on the monthly hairdresser costs), and my weekly shopping bill is much reduced, therefore (if others are in the same boat) the shops are not making as much profit so more redundancies - its a viscious circle.

However I don't believe that a positive outlook (as mentioned in a previous post) will help the situation that much, as although I an sure some shrinkage in spending is due to the psychological effect of the current climate, in my situation (and may others) its the reality of trying to just keep afloat.

Don't get me wrong though, I do firmly believe the Govmt had to do something. The counrty cannot carry on as it has done. However would a simpler answer be:
1. Suspend immigration for a few years - get our country in working order with jobs for all before opening the doors
2. Dont overly cut govmt spending - yes its a nice headline grabber, but where will the subsequently redundant staff go for work next - arnt they just shifting the problem?
3. Get out of European Union - I believe it costs a lot of our taxes to be in it.

:(