GDP Figures can't be trusted

Degenerate

michaels wrote: »

What like the 3.5% pa growth estimates going forward in the last labour fictional budget?

One person's future guess compared to another's is a very weak basis for argument, especially when all the actual real statistics are coming out the other way.

Thrugelmir

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

But if its taking 2 weeks to produce an accurate data set it is obviously a systemic failure rather than a little IT crash....

ONS data is supplied in the main by companies themselves.

Have compiled these forms on many occassions some are very onerous. Particularly if you are in a market sector where your company is a significant player. The forms are normally due within 30 days of a quarter end. Though with one company I worked for , we often received 1-2 month extensions on the submitting the returns. As we didn't have the data to hand in a format to answer the questions directly.

So in the meantime the ONS would have been forecasting its published data and progressively changing it for factual data as it received it.

purch

Perhaps the "independent" OBR needs to look at it - and conclude that the figures are sound just like they did for the rest of the economy....

If they could do that it certainly would be helpful.

The reliability of ONS statistics is not something to have confidence in.

Generali

Well there first secondary effect of the late GDP stats has been announced. The Bank of England is unable to release the numbers for Mortgage Equity Withdrawal.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2010/056.htm

As a result of the 29 June 2010 announcement by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) that the Q1 2010 Quarterly National Accounts release has been postponed to Monday 12 July (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/qnanr0610.pdf), the Bank of England will now release Housing Equity Withdrawal for Q1 2010 on Thursday 15 July 2010 (previously scheduled for 5 July 2010) (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/hew/current/index.htm).
The delay is because the compilation of Housing Equity Withdrawal data depends partly on ONS statistics to be included in the Q1 2010 Quarterly National Accounts.

What a mess!

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Generali wrote: »

Well there first secondary effect of the late GDP stats has been announced. The Bank of England is unable to release the numbers for Mortgage Equity Withdrawal.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2010/056.htm



What a mess!

Domino effect.

No data at all from anywhere worth anything for 2 weeks then....

sabretoothtigger

Our largest trading partner, usa job figures are out friday, no one cares about the uk anyway :laugh:

tomterm8

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Our largest trading partner, usa job figures are out friday, no one cares about the uk anyway :laugh:

From what I've heared, they are going to be very disappointing... all the signs are, they are losing jobs not gaining them. Vive la recession!

[ hope everyone I've spoken to is a McMoron, because it would be helpful if America actually started working again ].