Mortgage lending in May

Dirk_Rambo

nembot wrote: »

Maybe it's a little too hot for buyers at the moment!!

its so hot now that prospective purchasers are literally fainting in the street. thats the only reason why nobodys buying and house prices are falling. falling house prices has nothing to do whatsoever with nobody having any money.

chucky

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

its so hot now that prospective purchasers are literally fainting in the street. thats the only reason why nobodys buying and house prices are falling. falling house prices has nothing to do whatsoever with nobody having any money.

i like you Dork because you've got a sense of humour...

you're like the other noisy frothers who don't understand very well but at least you try to be funny...

with a small rise in approvals house prices for this month house prices fell on the Halifax Index by 0.4% but rose on the Nationwide Index by 0.5% for the month of May... when you can figure out that one out then have a chat with some of the other clowns on this thread who reckon this is bad news...

Generali

This graph from the BBA website shows pretty clearly what is happening to lending at present:



Saving up, lending down. Not great news for prices of houses, goods or services probably (if you think higher prices = good).

chucky

but mortgage lending would be net lending including remortgages which have fallen off a cliff.

if that's what your chart is displaying - why would you remortgage if your on a nice SVR or tracker deal?

Generali

chucky wrote: »

but mortgage lending would be net lending including remortgages which have fallen off a cliff.

if that's what your chart is displaying - why would you remortgage if your on a nice SVR or tracker deal?

If you remortgage to get a better deal rather than MEWing, change in net lending = 0.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

If you remortgage to get a better deal rather than MEWing, change in net lending = 0.

the chart was annual growth rates of mortgage lending amounts or
fair enough

i'm not totally convinced by the graph - firstly because it's YoY and then it doesn't make sense when the number of approvals has been increasing gradually and the amount being borrowed for new mortgages is increasing each month.

ps - i'm not in denial that their is deflationary pressure where people are saving more than they are borrowing or even spending.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

the chart was annual growth rates of mortgage lending amounts or
fair enough

i'm not totally convinced by the graph - firstly because it's YoY and then it doesn't make sense when the number of approvals has been increasing gradually and the amount being borrowed for new mortgages is increasing each month.

ps - i'm not in denial that their is deflationary pressure where people are saving more than they are borrowing or even spending.

From the horse's mouth:

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=17892

The annual growth in the banks' net mortgage lending of 4.3% (unchanged from last month) still substantially exceeds annual growth of just 0.9% in April for the mortgage market overall.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks said:
"High street banks are the main providers in the mortgage market, supplying 75% of all new lending and approving more than 35,000 loans for house purchase each month.
"The low interest rate environment is resulting in customers choosing to reduce or pay off borrowing, particularly personal loans, rather than saving.
"Lending to non-financial companies continues to be slow as demand for loans remains subdued.".

The thing is, I keep read qualitative pieces on here about how lending is rising or mortgage lending is rising but when you look at the actual cold numbers from the BBA or BoE who really don't have an axe to grind IMO you find that lending just keeps on falling and savings keep on rising.

Another thing which I just noticed is that the BBA YoY figures show nominal changes in net lending. 4.3% rise is a fall in lending in real terms.

MoM comparisons are problematic IMO. May has an extra day in it compared to April (in other words it's more than 3% longer). Also, April had Easter this year although admittedly May has 2 public holidays too.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

From the horse's mouth:

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=17892



The thing is, I keep read qualitative pieces on here about how lending is rising or mortgage lending is rising but when you look at the actual cold numbers from the BBA or BoE who really don't have an axe to grind IMO you find that lending just keeps on falling and savings keep on rising.

Another thing which I just noticed is that the BBA YoY figures show nominal changes in net lending. 4.3% rise is a fall in lending in real terms.

MoM comparisons are problematic IMO. May has an extra day in it compared to April (in other words it's more than 3% longer). Also, April had Easter this year although admittedly May has 2 public holidays too.

some very good points.

when i've taken the monthly transactions against the new borrowing - the average mortgage amount has been increasing and generally is in line with the monthly house price changes. i'd say just under about 10% in the last year.

i know that may seem one dimensional but surely that means that new lending is increasing.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

some very good points.

when i've taken the monthly transactions against the new borrowing - the average mortgage amount has been increasing and generally is in line with the monthly house price changes. i'd say just under about 10% in the last year.

i know that may seem one dimensional but surely that means that new lending is increasing.

Presumably that is the case and I've followed your perfectly logical argument about this over the past few months with interest.

The odd thing is, we're both using apparently good numbers from good sources and coming up with results that are directly contradictory. I will have to put my thinking cap on.

Anyhoo, it's 2.20am over here and I need to drag my weary, FIFA World Cup 2010(TM) battered body to bed before I fall alseep on my keybhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

nembot

Don't mind me chaps, just having a little bit of a laugh - few days off, with sunshine and an England win (a rare mix indeed).

:j