Nominal vs Real House Price Cycles

twadge_face

OK, so that's just a bit of fun (my previous post).

But...

- the First Sell Off in the infamous bubble chart does match the Q3 '89 peak.
- the Bear Trap does match the Q1 '93 and Q1 '95 supposed bottom.
- the "New Paradigm!!!" does match the Peak Q3 '07.
- the Bull Trap does match the Q1 '09.
- and, finally, the Back to Normal does seem like, er, now.

'sfunny. The last crash was just the beginning of the proper bubble*. According to this highly scientific analysis.

I henceforth look forward to buying my first home in 2012-2013 in cash.

I like the sciences.

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*yes, yes, I do appreciate the inflation mega-trend. Especially with all that QE money sloshing around.

FantomX

What Hamish and others do not realise is that Sterling has dropped by 1/3 against the Dollar since 2008. So to those like me whose wealth is in Dollars, UK house prices have crashed by over 1/3 since the start of the Broon bank bailout in 2008! Also, it takes far more pence and pounds to buy those things that required less before the bank bailout i.e. fuel and food! So their new found wealth means nothing in reality! It is always a trade off and only those at the top win!

Hamish and co...you have nothing to celebrate! In fact, you sould be getting out of UK property asap for it will fall further due to low mortgage funding! And don't forget the looming public sector cuts coming along! A Soviet style system has propped up property prices, but the coalition seem pretty commited to finishing that off!

You have been warned!

twadge_face

FantomX wrote: »

What Hamish and others do not realise is that Sterling has dropped by 1/3 against the Dollar since 2008. So to those like me whose wealth is in Dollars, UK house prices have crashed by over 1/3 since the start of the Broon bank bailout in 2008! Also, it takes far more pence and pounds to buy those things that required less before the bank bailout i.e. fuel and food! So their new found wealth means nothing in reality! It is always a trade off and only those at the top win!

Hamish and co...you have nothing to celebrate! In fact, you sould be getting out of UK property asap for it will fall further due to low mortgage funding! And don't forget the looming public sector cuts coming along! A Soviet style system has propped up property prices, but the coalition seem pretty commited to finishing that off!

You have been warned!

Surely we're alright as long as we don't holiday abroad?

I mean, as long as those investors from Qatar/Oman/generic-emirate-with-loads-of-gold-and-oil keep buying up prime London property, and thus assisting EVERYBODY ELSE* in the country by doing so, doesn't the devalued pound basically offer a PUBLIC SERVICE.

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*the poor, poor, impoverished homeowners. Ahhhh. Shame. Bless. Next generation? We don't need FTBs anymore, don'tchaknow! Social cohesion? Already de-cohesifying nicely, thanksverymuch.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

phil_b wrote: »

The bears are biting hard at this one hehe

They've not put this much effort in for a while. Photochop and everything.

It's obviously got them rattled.
:beer:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

FantomX
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1


Calling in the hpc reserves now......

twadge_face

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They've not put this much effort in for a while. Photochop and everything.

It's obviously got them rattled.

Potatochop? Nah. Simple with Excel and Paint.

And, as I said: just a bit of fun.

So... Where IS your sense of humour?

And I've got nothing to be rattled by. As if anything you say could change my own situation in any way. I have nothing to lose.

Interesting thing is that you have simply dismissed my analysis.

Perhaps I AM correct.

?

FantomX

!!!!!!_face wrote: »

Surely we're alright as long as we don't holiday abroad?

I mean, as long as those investors from Qatar/Oman/generic-emirate-with-loads-of-gold-and-oil keep buying up prime London property, and thus assisting EVERYBODY ELSE* in the country by doing so, doesn't the devalued pound basically offer a PUBLIC SERVICE.

---

*the poor, poor, impoverished homeowners. Ahhhh. Shame. Bless. Next generation? We don't need FTBs anymore, don'tchaknow! Social cohesion? Already de-cohesifying nicely, thanksverymuch.

I understand what you're saying !!!!!!_face, however, there is a serious issue. The UK govt decided to put the debt ridden first before those that did not overstretch themselves. The UK will never have a soveriegn credit downgrade as the move to 0.5 percent IR was effectively a downgrade...as one can see from the worth of the currency! This is odd to be honest as the UK govt put mortgage holders FIRST before those that hold the wealth in savings! In fact the move it 0.5 IRs just illustrates the fact that everything in the UK relies heavily on debt! However, you'll note that ONLY mortgage holders benefited from such a move...CC holders, HP Car Loan holders and personal loan holders did not benefit from it...hence why there is still I high level of defaulters of debt in the UK!

But...the Broon govt only cared about Mortgage holders and those in debt to the following banks especially: Lloyds, RBS and HBOS! And why those banks? Well those banks just happen to own a lot of our Schools and Hospitals through PFI...see where this going? It ain't just about house prices...it's about the freakin infrastructure of the UK...that Labour SOLD to mainly Scottish banks! Talk about Thatcher selling the family silver...Labour sold the lot!

And then seeing people like Gordon Mctavish and Chuky Darling celebrate HPI in the UK? There is no HPI in the UK! Prices have crashed...and by over 1/3 due to the currency! If you don't need to eat, keep warm, drive, wear clothes, smoke, drink etc then you'll be fine!

By the sounds of it, Hamish survives on fresh air alone and that's all! So well done to him!

FantomX

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1


Calling in the hpc reserves now......

No Gordon, it's common sense. Your property or whatever is worth over 1/3 less since the bank bailout.

twadge_face

FantomX wrote: »

No Gordon, it's common sense. Your property or whatever is worth over 1/3 less since the bank bailout.

Correct.

In gold it's even more depressing (unless you happen to hold gold, lol).

twadge_face

FantomX wrote: »

I understand what you're saying !!!!!!_face, however, there is a serious issue.

Don't knock the healing power of humour.