Cml: mortgage approvals plummet in April!

Henry_P_Chester

mortgage lending down 9% in April.
15 Jun 10

First-time buyers made up the lowest proportion of house purchase loans since September 2007, according to new data released today by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. They accounted for 35% of all house purchase mortgages, down from 39% in March and 38% in April 2009. The low!share of the market!shows that getting a mortgage remains problematic for first-time buyers who tend not to have a substantial deposit.!

Overall, there were 40,000 loans advanced for house purchase in April worth £5.7 billion, down from 45,000 (worth £6.3 billion) in March but up from 35,000 (worth £4.5 billion) in April 2009. April's seasonal dip was expected due to the Easter break and the underlying trend is of a gradual recovery in house purchase lending.

No first time buyers. Oh dear and now the pent up supply is coming out. Not looking good...

Blacklight

*opens popcorn*

chucky

i don't think that you've thought this one through...

this isn't really good news that you thought that it would be...

there were 40,000 loans advanced for house purchase in April worth £5.7 billion, down from 45,000 (worth £6.3 billion) in March but up from 35,000 (worth £4.5 billion) in April 2009

40,000 loans worth £5.7 billion in April is an average mortgage of £142,500
45,000 loans worth £6.3 billion in March is an average mortgage of £140,000

the average mortgage amount for house prices went up which means that people were paying more for their house...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

April's seasonal dip was expected due to the Easter break and the underlying trend is of a gradual recovery in house purchase lending.

Nope.

I don't think he's thought this one through at all.:D

Henry_P_Chester

Hmmm. Two bank holidays in a month causes almost 10% drop In mortgages.

17% less FTBs in April than march, despite having the extra incentive of no stamp duty. I don't think even you two could put a positive spin on that....

chucky

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

Hmmm. Two bank holidays in a month causes almost 10% drop In mortgages.

17% less FTBs in April than march, despite having the extra incentive of no stamp duty. I don't think even you two could put a positive spin on that....

lmao - it's not positive spin it's facts and 100% facts...

when you see the number of mortgage approvals drop with the average mortgage drop then you can be all happy... but this wasn't really the good news that you [STRIKE]frothed[/STRIKE] thought or hoped it was.

make sure you udnerstand what you start a thead on next time...

Henry_P_Chester

I think you need to understand the thread before you reply chucky. A drop in mortgage approvals shows a drop in demand at a time when supply is surging.

Using your logic 1000 approvals at a total value of £10bn making the average mortgage £1m would be indicative of a very healthy housing Market.

That fact that the average loan has increase is a consequence of the lack of FTBs. There are many more higher value properties selling with the lower cost FTB Market dead. This mirrors exactly what I and many others have been seeing in local areas for several months now.

chucky

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

I think you need to understand the thread before you reply chucky. A drop in mortgage approvals shows a drop in demand at a time when supply is surging.

Using your logic 1000 approvals at a total value of £10bn making the average mortgage £1m would be indicative of a very healthy housing Market.

That fact that the average loan has increase is a consequence of the lack of FTBs. There are many more higher value properties selling with the lower cost FTB Market dead. This mirrors exactly what I and many others have been seeing in local areas for several months now.

oh i understand very well... what you and few others on here are not understanding is that the number of mortgage approvals can drop, the number of FTB's can drop but they haven't dropped to levels to cause house prices to fall...

if these numbers fall for the next few months to a point below the neutral level of approvals; yes house prices will fall but those falling numbers aren't guaranteed to happen whatever anyone tells you on here.

until mortgage approvals don't fall below the neutral level of approvals house prices ain't falling...

40,000 loans worth £5.7 billion in April is an average mortgage of £142,500
45,000 loans worth £6.3 billion in March is an average mortgage of £140,000

house prices are up with 5,000 less approvals

Blacklight

That fact that the average loan has increase is a consequence of the lack of FTBs. There are many more higher value properties selling with the lower cost FTB Market dead. This mirrors exactly what I and many others have been seeing in local areas for several months now.

Do you camp 'in your local area' (whatever that means) for several months at a time asking everyone who's going in and out of houses with for sale signs if they're a first time buyer?

35% of those buying are first time buyers by your own submission. You're clutching a straws man.

Henry_P_Chester

chucky wrote: »

oh i understand very well... what you and few others on here are not understanding is that the number of mortgage approvals can drop, the number of FTB's can drop but they haven't dropped to levels to cause house prices to fall...

if these numbers fall for the next few months to a point below the neutral level of approvals; yes house prices will fall but those falling numbers aren't guaranteed to happen whatever anyone tells you on here.

until mortgage approvals don't fall below the neutral level of approvals house prices ain't falling...


house prices are up with 5,000 less approvals

I agree with what you are saying there. Put simply there could be just 10 mortgage approvals but with only 5 sellers prices will rise.

But this is at a time when supply is increasing causing an imbalance which will feed through into agreed sale prices in the coming months.

The fact remains this is not a good report for the Market.

chucky

Blacklight wrote: »

Do you camp 'in your local area' (whatever that means) for several months at a time asking everyone who's going in and out of houses with for sale signs if they're a first time buyer?

35% of those buying are first time buyers by your own submission. You're clutching a straws man.

he definetly is

looking at the HPC bible that HPC.co.uk is... they've got the average % of FTBers at 34% in recent times. a movement up to 35% indicates that there are more FTBers.

Q1 2008 38%
Q4 2007 36%
Q3 2007 34%
Q2 2007 35%
Q1 2007 36%
Q4 2006 35%
Q3 2006 35%
Q2 2006 36%
Q1 2006 38%
Q4 2005 38%
Q3 2005 38%
Q2 2005 39%
Q1 2005 30%
Q4 2004 30%
Q3 2004 28%
Q2 2004 28%
Q1 2004 30%
Q4 2003 28%
Q3 2003 28%
Q2 2003 31%
Q1 2003 33%
Q4 2002 39%
Q3 2002 38%
Q2 2002 37%
Q1 2002 40%

it's very nice of you to bring us some good news Henry that more FTBs are buying than the recent average...

i don't think Henry really knew what he was posting...