House Prices Up 4.9% in last 3 months alone....

chucky

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

lol, thanks Chucky. Was I was just using that to make the unrelated point that whether bull or bear or neither people give the figures that suits their position ie Hamish using (pointless) non seasonally adjusted figures.

i'm an unadjusted man, you get the real numbers and a better sentiment of the situation - none of those massaged numbers for me

interesting that you never put the house price movement for that month...

Henry_P_Chester

chucky wrote: »

i'm an unadjusted man, you get the real numbers and a better sentiment of the situation - none of those massaged numbers for me

interesting that you never put the house price movement for that month...

as I said it was to make a point of how people use figures to suit themselves. The figures given were purely as an example of how that can be done.

I would advise you to read this post about why non seasonal adjusted figures are meaningless without reference:

In spring house prices nearly always rise and in winter prices nearly always fall. So if in spring prices rose 1.5% then the only way to gauge this figure as an indicator of Market conditions is to compare it to the same time in previous years. This way you can tell if the Market is doing well or not for the time of year. Seasonal adjustment does this for you to save you time comparing vast amounts of yearly data. Non seasonally adjusted figures offer no insight into the actual Market without comparisons.

Take, for example, last weeks bank of England mortgage approval data. The data we discussed on this forum was seasonally adjusted. Here's how it compares:

...................NSA..........SA...
31 Mar 10....57945.......49008
30 Apr 10....53650.......49871

Source: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mfsd/...C=112&Filter=N

if you take the NSA figure it shows a 7.5% drop from the previous month and looking at this alone you would be inclined to think that the Market had collapsed from march to April! But it hasn't because a drop like this is a standard seasonal variation between march and April. So if you remove that variation you left with a rise 0.2% showing that the Market dropped slightly less than you would expect for a standard march - April.