Are we already in a new major nonswing?

Harry_Powell

Title says it all really. I've seen arguments from both rival gangs on here (the 'bears' and the 'bulls') and all of their data, debate and argument has only served to convince me that we will have a protracted period of stagnation in the housing market. We will have some months with gains, which will send the 'bulls' into raptures and the 'bears' into retreat and some months of drops, which will have the opposite effect. The debate in here will become as stagnant as the housing market.

The question for prospective buyers is when to buy. Those waiting for large drops will be dissapointed and will need to look for other financial triggers for their house purchases. I would advise comparing things like rent vs mortgage, quality of live as a tenant vs owner occupier, payback of overpayment of mortgage vs increasing deposit, etc. This isn't an exhaustive list by any means, and I'd be interested to see what other financial triggers people have.

robin_banks

Depends where you're looking I guess. In London supply and demand will I think lead to price rises, might be an entirely different matter elsewhere.

Blacklight

It'll all find it's new natural level in time. I suspect prices will be less where people earn less and more where people earn more.

There will be some rises in some areas and some falls in others.

One thing I am confident of now is that there will be no all mighty fall of 40% overnight. Anyone who consistently argues that view now sounds increasingly similar to David Icke's rantings as time goes on.

Loopgames

I'm both a bear and a bull:D

I hope the markets recover so that we can sell our flat at the best price and that my business expands ready for next year's Toy Fair exhibition in january but if there is a major kink in the economy then I have bought some gold too just in case:p

lemonjelly

I think there is still too much uncertainty out there at the mo, which means calling the situation is nigh on impossible.

The economic data we get keeps changing. One day loads of good news, the next, loads of bad news. You can almost tell by the current news stories who'll be on the board some days...

In example, yesterday we were told that the number of jobs in the UK market is up (by 1% hurray!), however, the rates of pay have fallen by 3% (boo!).

There is a lot of planning for reductions in services, and a significant number of projects will be pulled over the next few years. So it is very knife edge at the moment I feel. We're going to see the government spending £6bn less, a possible increase in the unemployment figures, and we still have to withdraw £200bn from the economy.

doire_2

It took around 5 to 6 years for the last crash to pan out.

Gordon has gone, the election he so dearly wanted to win has gone and so too has the money.

chucky

doire wrote: »

It took around 5 to 6 years for the last crash to pan out.

Gordon has gone, the election he so dearly wanted to win has gone and so too has the money.

actually you need to get your facts right - the price drops happened in the first 18 months. prices stagnated and didn't return to peak prices for about another 4 years.

a bit of what's happening now... except that with the possibility of inflation it makes it harder for those buying and easier for those that own property...

deflation would be more interesting.

Loopgames

lemonjelly wrote: »

I think there is still too much uncertainty out there at the mo, which means calling the situation is nigh on impossible.

The economic data we get keeps changing. One day loads of good news, the next, loads of bad news. You can almost tell by the current news stories who'll be on the board some days...

In example, yesterday we were told that the number of jobs in the UK market is up (by 1% hurray!), however, the rates of pay have fallen by 3% (boo!).

There is a lot of planning for reductions in services, and a significant number of projects will be pulled over the next few years. So it is very knife edge at the moment I feel. We're going to see the government spending £6bn less, a possible increase in the unemployment figures, and we still have to withdraw £200bn from the economy.

It does feel like it's all precarious - could go either way.

The question is - is the government trying to keep it together as long as possible until the major debt threat goes away or are the markets genuinely stabilising under the natural economics of things (i.e. supply and demand)

I get the impression that all this calm is artificial and the storm is brewing under it all...the longer the government keeps a lid on it the stronger the collapse. But that's my bear personality coming through.

Yakubu22

Loopgames wrote: »

I get the impression that all this calm is artificial and the storm is brewing under it all...the longer the government keeps a lid on it the stronger the collapse. But that's my bear personality coming through.

That's my view on this too. After all we were told this was the worst recession for several generations.

The analogy which springs to my mind if a pan of boiling water, about to overflow and spill over the place. Rather than turn the heat down and deal with the causes. We've just held a lid on the pan itself, thereby allowing us more time to manouevre. But the longer we wait the more the underlying conditions worsen.

Procrastinator333

I share this view, most likely stagnation, but falls more likely than increases.

As to a financial trigger, the other important one for me is interest rates available vs rental cost (as a %). We hve decided we want a bigger place and are going to keep saving for the moment. Once at a 20% deposit level, rates drop a lot.

Until rates are lower than rental yield in a stagnant Market, u r financially better of renting and buying later. So we will keep saving.

Dirk_Rambo

house prices are still falling at a rapid rate in my local area. that isn't stagnation in my book, more like a continuing crash