Are we already in a new major upswing?

Dirk_Rambo

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

The price data says otherwise.

They make the price data up to suit though.

IveSeenTheLight

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

They make the price data up to suit though.

I guess not then

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Interesting.
Local areas can react much differently to the overall UK average.
Care to share your locality so that we can discuss in more detail?

tomstickland

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Your signature is apt "oh dear"

Asking prices is not the same as selling prices.

Yes, I know.
I'm confident that selling prices are not rising.

marklv

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

More and more regions and cities are hitting double digit inflation. I suggested last year that we're in another boom, and with London, South West and South East all since experiencing massive rises, it's certainly beginning to feel like it.

No massive rises in Berkshire. Maybe in parts of London favoured by the City millionaires, but nowhere else.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

More and more regions and cities are hitting double digit inflation. I suggested last year that we're in another boom, and with London, South West and South East all since experiencing massive rises, it's certainly beginning to feel like it.

Cracking data you have there.....



Or is it just crack?

Kohoutek

Very big regional differences, but OP is correct that several regions are experiencing double digit increases in prices from last year.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=505522&in_page_id=57&expand=true

morag1202

tomstickland wrote: »

Yes, I know.
I'm confident that selling prices are not rising.

Land Registry report for your area seems not to agree with this.

The BBC house price link for Stroud gives an annual increase of 11.1% and a quarterly increase of 2.4% with 291 sold in the first quarter.

PasturesNew

An area, as a whole, might show growth, but down on the ground, when you're looking for a particular style/size of house, the picture might show an entirely different trend. I am seeing lots of falls where I am. Holiday homes I've had my eye on for the past 9 years are now back to less than half their peak ... and not selling. The new ones that were released 3-4 years ago are up at 30% off, and not selling.

If identifiable holiday homes are doing this, then the hidden holiday homes (regular houses bought and used as holiday homes) can be faring no better.

Lots of reductions where I am all the time. (far, far South West).

BritRael

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

More and more regions and cities are hitting double digit inflation.....

Yes, some are hitting 'double digit' inflation.

But +0.01% is not really that impressive is it?

Davesnave

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Asking prices is not the same as selling prices.

If a house was sold for £100k last year and marketed this year at £130k, then lowered to £125k, then lowered to £120k before selling at £115k

Has that house lowered in value or increased?

If a house did that it would be a fairly rare kind of house.....

Ah, but we are discussing theoretical houses here, so that's OK.

Out there, in the real world, people thinking of buying look only at a small section of the housing market in a relatively small area of the country. They may miss the big picture, but they know their own patch pretty well.

These latent buyers look at the houses they've seen on the market for some time, they see the asking prices reducing and they sleep easy in their beds. Tom and Pastures are two of those, but there are thousands more. Yes, the houses they see reducing may have been well overpriced in the first place, but they were then financially unattractive.

At some point, these potential buyers will see something they really like at a price they are happy with, and buy it (or maybe they won't if they believe their crystal ball is telling them not to. ) It might be something new to the market that stands out as an obvious good buy, or it might be an old chestnut with an owner capitulating. I have certainly seen good examples of both this year.

In this kind of market, with much still not moving quickly, it's possible to take a view like yours, based on pure data, or take a view like Tom's. It doesn't mean either is 'better,' because people will do what they feel works for them and what they are comfortable with.