How many by-elections are there in one term usually?

Blacklight

Could it just tip the scales in favor of the Tories later on?

zygurat789

Blacklight wrote: »

Could it just tip the scales in favor of the Tories later on?

This parliament won't go anywhere near full term. The last time this happened in 1964 the largest party with the momentum took office and about a year later called another election which they won.

Generali

Blacklight wrote: »

Could it just tip the scales in favor of the Tories later on?

At a guess 1-3 pa. The 1974-9 Lab/Lib Lab Govt lost their majority because of by- elections.

silvercar

Already going to be one where a candidate died before polling day.

Generali

Now I'm at home I counted the by-elections listed on Wiki and came up with 127 since 1979. That's in 31 years so about 4 a year or 20 over the 5 years of a Parliament.

Mr_Mumble

silvercar wrote: »

Already going to be one where a candidate died before polling day.

afaik that should be a relatively easy Conservative win. We're likely to have a new national election in the next 6-12 months anyway especially if the Lib-dems demand electoral reform. Labour have many first past the post supporters in the north (they're not going to be turkeys voting for Christmas) while Fraser Nelson has just tweeted this:

"In entering coalition talks, Cameron tests his authority within party. Inquiry into electoral reform? The Spectator cannot support this."

:eek:

Blacklight

Mr_Mumble wrote: »

We're likely to have a new national election in the next 6-12 months anyway especially if the Lib-dems demand electoral reform.

What's the evidence for this and why don't you think that DC's proposal to the Lib Dems to make some concessions in exchange for support (or lack of opposition as I read it) is unworkable 6-12 months from now?

torontoboy45

Generali wrote: »

Now I'm at home I counted the by-elections listed on Wiki and came up with 127 since 1979. That's in 31 years so about 4 a year or 20 over the 5 years of a Parliament.

which is why major lost his majority 92 -97 of 21(?) and was forced to rely on the DUP to shore up the gov.

even if cameron had achieved a working majority of -say- 15 today it would only be a matter of time before he was forced to seal a deal with the LD's/DUP or seek fresh mandate.

torontoboy45

Mr_Mumble wrote: »

afaik that should be a relatively easy Conservative win. We're likely to have a new national election in the next 6-12 months anyway especially if the Lib-dems demand electoral reform. Labour have many first past the post supporters in the north (they're not going to be turkeys voting for Christmas) while Fraser Nelson has just tweeted this:

"In entering coalition talks, Cameron tests his authority within party. Inquiry into electoral reform? The Spectator cannot support this."

:eek:

this is where cameron's problems start before he actually has problems.
going into a deal with the LD's isn't something the party faithful are going to like; he's got his work cut out already.
should he convince them he then faces the key LD demand for reform (and the LD's are unlikely to be fobbed off with yet another 'enquiry').
additionally, he knows that some unpleasant decisions will have to be made re economy sooner rather than later, and the country won't like it. which makes an autumn election more than a bit tricky.

poor old dave; he's still not through the door of no.10 and already I feel sorry for him!

Degenerate

torontoboy45 wrote: »

which is why major lost his majority 92 -97 of 21(?) and was forced to rely on the DUP to shore up the gov.

Nope. Major lost his majority because a substantial group of Tory MPs rebelled against the party line on the Maastricht Treaty and had the whip withdrawn. The "whipless ones" (or the "!!!!!!" as Major liked to refer to them) were a huge thorn in the side of Major's government.

Oh, and it was the UUP. I think DUP had only one or two MPs back then.

robin_banks

Generali wrote: »

At a guess 1-3 pa. The 1974-9 Lab/Lib Lab Govt lost their majority because of by- elections.

Ditto Major?.

I think the longest period in a parliament without a by-election was 13 months.