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Debate House Prices
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BBA: Mortgage Approvals up 5% in March
Comments
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I think they will be slaves to a huge debt they really can't afford.
According to the CML:
The average FTB mortgage never crossed 3.5 times income even at peak... It's lower today.
The average 2TB mortgage never crossed 3 times income even at peak. Again it's lower today.
People could afford such multiples when mortgage rates were at 15%+, let alone when they are less than a third that amount.
Your perception, that the masses buy housing at high multiples, just doesn't match with the reality.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
People are waiting till after the election in the most part to see where prices go, everyone excluding those with vested interests are stating we've still got years of slow growth ahead, if any - best case scenario.
There is no logical reason for house prices to rise, they still need to drop further for a sustainable market. The assumption that a change in government and their policies won't affect prices, is merely clutching the proverbial.
It's happened before and there is no reason why it can't happen again?
Do you think any government who gets in power cares about the price of your house, once they have a new term?
Because they don't...0 -
i tend to agree with much of your post but........ the bold bit isn't true.People are waiting till after the election in the most part to see where prices go, everyone excluding those with vested interests are stating we've still got years of slow growth ahead, if any - best case scenario.
There is no logical reason for house prices to rise, they still need to drop further for a sustainable market. The assumption that a change in government and their policies won't affect prices, is merely clutching the proverbial.
It's happened before and there is no reason why it can't happen again?
Do you think any government who gets in power cares about the price of your house, once they have a new term?
Because they don't...
markets don't work on logic, otherwise there would be many more people making millions of pounds each day0 -
That is so true chucky, why it is - I have no idea.0
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »According to the CML:
The average FTB mortgage never crossed 3.5 times income even at peak... It's lower today.
The average 2TB mortgage never crossed 3 times income even at peak. Again it's lower today.
People could afford such multiples when mortgage rates were at 15%+, let alone when they are less than a third that amount.
Your perception, that the masses buy housing at high multiples, just doesn't match with the reality.
Self Cert :cool::cool:
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From the Press Release:
*GTS: There are lots of ways of measuring the money supply. M4 includes the amount of money created or destroyed by banks lending money or not lending money. During a credit crisis, changes in M4 should have a bigger impact on inflation or deflation than usual. That's my theory anyway, not one from proper economics.
Gen, I am with you. Slow deflationary price collapse over the next 10 years.
Money will be going long in the SM once we have the next correction, FTSE250 instead of paying down mortgage. Only way out of this is to Export. We need to get our trade deficit down, public sector down and business investment UP.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »According to the CML:
The average FTB mortgage never crossed 3.5 times income even at peak... It's lower today.
The average 2TB mortgage never crossed 3 times income even at peak. Again it's lower today.
People could afford such multiples when mortgage rates were at 15%+, let alone when they are less than a third that amount.
Your perception, that the masses buy housing at high multiples, just doesn't match with the reality.
it doesnt matter what the average is...
the fact is with only 3% bad debts, or even as high as 5% banks nearly folded. if nobody borrowed at more than 3.5times, then how come there were defaults? This was BEFORE the recession, hence why northern rock suffered.
People could afford 15% for the short periods they were that high in late 80s early 90s, people cannot cope with extended periods at those rates or even half those rates.
if you mortgaged up at tracker at 4% ie base plus 3.5% then you can only flex to about 15% before if takes 100% of your net income... the normal rates then were 7% + so 15% was only double the norm... most people would Baulk at the sigh of 7% rates now, and would REALLY struggle for prolonged period, well for as long as the credit card company would allow it ;-)
Well it will happen, wait until rates go back to 4.5% ie 8% mortgage rate... see how much your repayment is then!!!Plan
1) Get most competitive Lifetime Mortgage (Done)
2) Make healthy savings, spend wisely (Doing)
3) Ensure healthy pension fund - (Doing)
4) Ensure house is nice, suitable, safe, and located - (Done)
5) Keep everyone happy, healthy and entertained (Done, Doing, Going to do)0 -
if you had any sense you would have remortgaged to a better rate.Well it will happen, wait until rates go back to 4.5% ie 8% mortgage rate... see how much your repayment is then!!!
with a differential of 3.5% on those trackers even paying the redemption fees (if the redemption period hasn't ended by then) will save you money within 12 months.
unless people cannot remortgage (which there should be very few) and you get caught out by the rates rises you have no sense at all.0 -
Self Cert :cool:
Another discredited bear meme....:cool:
If self cert was responsible for average LTI being less than 3.5 at peak, then average LTI should have risen dramatically when self cert ended 2 years ago.
But instead of rising when self cert ended, average LTI fell almost exactly in line with prices.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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