Interesting Population Prediction App from ONS

nickmason

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/populationestimates/flash_pyramid/EW-pyramid/pyramid6_30.html

Is fascinating, particularly when you look at what I assume is an immigration bubble (inasmuch as the cohort of 9-year-old's in 2000 grows by 25% from 700,000 to 875,000 29-year-olds in 2020, so doesn't make sense as a birth bubble)

It dwarfs the baby boom(s) for instance.

kennyboy66_2

Ace - if you move the time bar, its like an animated Rorschach test.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

nickmason wrote: »

Is fascinating, particularly when you look at what I assume is an immigration bubble (inasmuch as the cohort of 9-year-old's in 2000 grows by 25% from 700,000 to 875,000 29-year-olds in 2020, so doesn't make sense as a birth bubble)

It dwarfs the baby boom(s) for instance.

It certainly does.

The demographics argument so often seen on here about boomers selling up and house prices falling completely ignores the fact that the subsequent generations are now even bigger than the boomers because of immigration.

Another bear meme bites the dust.....

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It certainly does.

The demographics argument so often seen on here about boomers selling up and house prices falling completely ignores the fact that the subsequent generations are now even bigger than the boomers because of immigration.

Another bear meme bites the dust.....

Not really as it depends on what purchasers can afford to pay - demand at any price is the number of people willing and able to pay don't forget.

Very few can afford to pay £500,000 for a house and there are an awful lot of houses in the South East of England worth that and more owned by ageing people.

purch

its like an animated Rorschach test

It's gonna keep me occupied for hours :T

jamesd

You can find the reports behind that projection at National Statistics Population Projections. Take a look at the latest 2008-based volume 27.

On page 2, figure 1.1 you can see the age mixture for 2033 overlayed on 2008. Observe how the working population increases but the retired population increases a lot more as a percentage. Move on to table 11. on page 3 and you see:

2008 aged 16-64: 39,944 aged 65 and over: 9,932 % 65 over: 19.9%
2033 aged 16-64: 42,436 aged 65 and over: 16,422 % 65 or over: 27.9%

An increase from 19.9% 65 and over to 27.9% 65 and over should make the potential for future tax pain paying pension and other benefits to the retired clear. Increasing state pension age to 68 will help but not enough.

Here are the percentages 65 and over compared to retired plus working for the other projection years.

2008: 19.9%
2011: 20.6% (the 1945-46 babies reach 65)
2021: 23.7%
2031: 27.2%
2041: 28.9%
2051: 29.5%
2061: 31.0%
2071: 31.2%
2081: 32.3%

So a change from five to one working to retired now to three to one. I wouldn't want to be betting on the state pensions increasing with inflation. Except that all of those retired people will be a really big chunk of the electorate and able to vote for higher taxes for their children and grandchildren. The increase in state pension age moderates this quite a bit.

Structural deficit? Oh yes.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

Not really as it depends on what purchasers can afford to pay - demand at any price is the number of people willing and able to pay don't forget.

Very few can afford to pay £500,000 for a house and there are an awful lot of houses in the South East of England worth that and more owned by ageing people.

So who will buy these £500,000 houses?
If no-one can buy, will they be passed on to younger family members.
what would they do with it? sell it at an achievable price or move in themselves and sell their property.

One things for sure, the market has set the price at £500,000 due to people being able to and willing to pay that much for those properties.

There may be few that can afford but it would seem there is sufficient numbers that can afford, otherwise the price would drop.

IveSeenTheLight

This is certainly interesting in that they are projecting a net population growth in England and Wales only of 400,000 per year.

Again a question needs to be considered is that is there enough housing being built to support this year on year increase.

If not, what impact is there to the supply and demand ratio.