MSE News: UK economic growth weaker than expected 6 April 2010 at 1:54PM edited 23 April 2010 at 12:56PM in Debate House Prices & the Economy 32 replies 309 views

Former_MSE_Natasha

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"The fragility of the UK's recovery was highlighted today as official estimates showed weaker than expected economic growth in the first three months of 2010 ..."

Read the full story:

UK economic growth weaker than expected

These threads have been merged to avoid duplication. Thanks to Graham_Devon for the original post.

Graham_Devon

The UK economy continued to recover from recession in the first three months of the year, according to official estimates.
GDP grew by 0.2% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
That was weaker than the 0.4% growth predicted by many economists, but the figure may be revised.
The last quarter of 2009 saw GDP growth of 0.4% - revised up from an initial estimate of 0.1%.
The ONS said the bad weather seen at the beginning of the year may have had an impact on output - particularly in the retail and industrial sectors.

Obviously subject to revision, the figure has dissapointed many who predicted around 0.4% growth.

0.6% growth in finance and business. Hotels, restaurants etc fell 0.7%.

Doesn't include retail figures, which apparently has taken a big knock over this period, so we shall see what the revisions do.

The figures have sparked an election row, with the tories claiming the country needs new leadership, and labour insisting recovery is underway.

George Osbourne is quoting as saying these figures are dissapointing. Brown has said any growth at all was against all odds.

Really2

Likely to be revised nearer forecast.

The forecasts now seem more accurate than the preliminary. I think IM mentioned this last time as many traders were getting peed off with the prelim as it was usually way out then getting revised nearer to forecast.

A._Badger

Of course, this is always assuming you can believe the figures. Frankly, I don't. We are, after all, governed by proven liars (and, before the Labour Glee Club starts piling in, I should add, we will continue to be, whoever wins the next parish council election).

My impression is that things are far worse than anyone is admitting.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Likely to be revised nearer forecast.

The forecasts now seem more accurate than the preliminary. I think IM mentioned this last time as many traders were getting peed off with the prelim as it was usually way out then getting revised nearer to forecast.

I'm not sure what figures we are missing. I do know that we are missing retail though, and what with the weather, VAT increase, and a hangover from christmas, news articles reported quite a drop in retail if I recall correctly? Wasn't there a thread on here about it?

Really2

But growth is growth so no double dipper at the moment.

I think most company's are now seeing things pick up. You can see it on the high street now.

As for retail GD they have grown. I believe they are seasonally adjusted on GDP so yes they will be lower than Oct-Dec but that will be expected.


last YOY release was they were up 4.4%

chucky

de wedder in Jan and Feb might have something to do with it being lower innit...

but that's just going to sound like excuses... Q2 will tell us more...

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

But growth is growth so no double dipper at the moment.

I think most company's are now seeing things pick up. You can see it on the high street now.

As for retail GD they have grown.


last YOY release was they were up 4.4%

That shows that retail since december has fallen. From 113.1 (ish) to 112.7 (ish).

What I meant to say was were missing the bulk of figures.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That shows that retail since december has fallen. From 113.1 (ish) to 112.7 (ish).

What I meant to say was were missing the bulk of figures.

you only get about 40% of the figures I believe - it's the way the info is returned and collated.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That shows that retail since december has fallen. From 113.1 (ish) to 112.7 (ish).

What I meant to say was were missing the bulk of figures.

They will seasonal adjustment on GDP though I believe you expect Sales in Oct-Dec to be Higher than Jan-march?

To add.
http://www.brc.org.uk/details04.asp?id=1726&kCat=53&kData=2

UK retail sales values rose 4.4% on a like-for-like basis from March 2009, when sales had dropped 1.2%. Good Friday and Easter Saturday falling in the March trading period this year but in April 2009 boosted the year-on-year comparison. On a total basis, sales rose 6.6% against only 0.6% growth in March 2009.

For the period we saw a Jan 2.2% increase. -0.7% for Feb and Up 4.4% March.

Graham_Devon

Were not comparing anything to March 2009 though.

Maybe I should have added "spin away people" to the opening post?