Lib Dems surge following Chancellor debate

Spartacus_Mills

Emy1501 wrote: »

In the latest poll Tories are down one or two are are Labour and the Lib Dems up 4 so your comment does not make sense as the Tories have not gained anything in latest poll

Utter rubbish.

The latest poll, which you mention in your post, is actually the Yougov daily.

Yougov daily - Tories up 1, Lib Dems no change, Labour down 1

So well done, completely wrong.

These are the other two polls from yesterday.

ICM - Tories down 1, Labour down 2, Lib Dems up 4 (result !!!)
TNS/BRMB - Tories down 1, Labour up 2, Lib Dems static.

Emy1501

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Utter rubbish.

The latest poll, which you mention in your post, is actually the Yougov daily.

Yougov daily - Tories up 1, Lib Dems no change, Labour down 1

So well done, completely wrong.

These are the other two polls from yesterday.

ICM - Tories down 1, Labour down 2, Lib Dems up 4 (result !!!)
TNS/BRMB - Tories down 1, Labour up 2, Lib Dems static.

What? The poll for the guardian is the one people have been talking about on the TV and this puts the Tories down at least 1 point. So how has the their issue on NI helped them? My point is the Lib Dems are up 4 and the Tories are down so clearly Hamish is wrong?

Spartacus_Mills

Emy1501 wrote: »

What? The poll for the guardian is the one people have been talking about on the TV and this puts the Tories down at least 1 point. So how has the their issue on NI helped them? My point is the Lib Dems are up 4 and the Tories are down so clearly Hamish is wrong?

Yes, people would talk about the ICM poll on the TV as there is an inherent anti-Tory bias on the BBC certainly (not that I am bothered about that I have some bias against them) but there were three polls last night. All use different methodology and they have to be taken as a group.

Instead of just watching the TV and trying to see things that are not there you need to look at the trend and the trend is for the Tories an upward move in the polls.

Hamish made a reasonable point. Did I just say that time for a lie down after a bottle of Crabbies :rotfl:

Emy1501

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Yes, people would talk about the ICM poll on the TV as there is an inherent anti-Tory bias on the BBC certainly (not that I am bothered about that I have some bias against them) but there were three polls last night. All use different methodology and they have to be taken as a group.

Instead of just watching the TV and trying to see things that are not there you need to look at the trend and the trend is for the Tories an upward move in the polls.

Hamish made a reasonable point. Did I just say that time for a lie down after a bottle of Crabbies :rotfl:

OK there were 3 polls yesterday 2 put them down 1 point and 1 put them up one point. I still cant see how that shows their popularity is rising.

Generali

I think the margin of error for these polls is 3% so a change of less than that is meaningless.

Spartacus_Mills

Generali wrote: »

I think the margin of error for these polls is 3% so a change of less than that is meaningless.

Well said Sir, which is why the 4% rise for the LD's is meaningful.

The trend is useful though. The Tories were polling in the region of 36/37% and Labour 32/33% a few weeks back. The Tories have inched up and Labour have inched down. This may be MOE but over a group of polls it makes a trend and for anoraks like me it is interesting in the impact it can have on the election especially when you have positions on 30 constituencies.