Ireland - Hero to zero!

halight

I would say that even if they dont wont the bailout money Germany and france are going to push them to have at least some, to stop the crisis spreding to other countrys that are treading a fine line.

de1amo

a 'city' person told me the exposure to irish debt by the British banks is approximately 230billion dollars which dwarfs the ECBs 175 bln exposure so far!--we are in it up to the neck in İreland!--the British loans arent to the banks but to mortgage and private lenders mainly.
İf ireland is allowed to default and as i saw last night the spanish economy is now coming under pressure due to the domino effect as confidence exits --then there is another problem with the hedges that banks have based on the system--jp morgan alone has trillons of these ticking 'bombs' just waiting to explode.-no ones money is safe in any bank!
i dont think the ecb can let ireland default but they would if they could!!-i saw late last night on bloomberg that emergency talks were happening between the irish and the ecb.-lets hope for all our sakes ireland doesnt go

GDB2222

Generali wrote: »

The yield is the interest payable on a bond divided by it's current market price. The higher it is, the less investors want to lend you money. This is what happened to Irish yields yesterday in graphic form:



From Reuters via the FT.

I haven't checked the yields on Bunds but I guess that's a 5% differential. Do you think the Irish have a 5% pa chance of defaulting completely on all their government debts? I wonder sometimes whether the risk premium, on top of the default risk, is simply too large? It's difficult to diversify away the risk, ofc, as once one of these euro countries defaults the rest are quite likely to follow.

Generali

GDB2222 wrote: »

I haven't checked the yields on Bunds but I guess that's a 5% differential. Do you think the Irish have a 5% pa chance of defaulting completely on all their government debts? I wonder sometimes whether the risk premium, on top of the default risk, is simply too large? It's difficult to diversify away the risk, ofc, as once one of these euro countries defaults the rest are quite likely to follow.

I think the most likely outcome for Ireland is what is known as a haircut. They'll stop making interest and capital repayments for a while

de1amo

İf they take this haircut how would that leave the type of exposure debt the uk banks have to İreland? The economic situation would be dire as they try to escape the mire and i am sure property prices will decline and the number of bankruptcies will escalate leaving our banks very exposed. İ saw someone say they were contemplating 'destroying' the excess property stock which was probably built with loaned money(from the uk banks).

worldtraveller

Irish Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan said Ireland is likely to receive a very substantial loan from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Honohan, who is also a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, made the remarks in a phone interview today with Dublin-based broadcaster RTE.

On loan talks:

Honohan expects the loan to amount to tens of billions, without specifying a currency.

I don't know that any precision has been put on the size of a loan at this stage.

On Ireland's banks:

I don't think there's any question of it all going into the banks.

It's true that the banks need additional confidence. Our efforts and huge sums of money that have been put in by the government to support the banks have not generated sufficient confidence yet.............

Bloomberg

Conrad

I had a peek at Irish prices in Cork yesterday and it's as if nothing has happened. New appartments at 200k euros, ordinary 3 bed semis at 230e. My budget is £20k cash!

worldtraveller

Conrad wrote: »

I had a peek at Irish prices in Cork yesterday and it's as if nothing has happened. New appartments at 200k euros, ordinary 3 bed semis at 230e. My budget is £20k cash!

Not in the city, but....

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=543490

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=418900 (Has potential?! )

HugoRune_2

the name of irelands leading property website says it all really....

Mr_Mumble

FT - Irish showdown over corporate tax

French and German officials are pressing Ireland to increase its low corporate tax rate in return for an aid package, setting the stage for a showdown over a policy long resented by Dublin’s European partners.

Ireland views the corporate tax rate, set at 12.5 per cent, as the cornerstone of its industrial policy. On Thursday, Irish officials reiterated their determination to protect it. “It’s non-negotiable,” Mary Coughlan, deputy prime minister, told parliament.

French, German and European officials told the Financial Times that the tax rate has emerged as a major point of contention as negotiators from the European Union and International Monetary Fund arrived in Dublin to discuss a potential bail-out.

One European official involved in the talks said that the corporate tax increase would be a casus belli with the Irish, and said that Dublin’s strident objections could well keep it out of any final package.

This could get very ugly.