'What'll happen to house prices?' poll discussion

Former_MSE_Lawrence

Poll between 08-15 March 2010:

What’ll happen to house prices?

Annual UK house rises of around 4.5% have been reported for the last year, though figures for last month show a slight dip. So it's time for our regular poll to ask you where you think they’ll go next.

What do you think’ll happen to UK house prices over the next 12 months?

A. Increase over 20% (big boom) - 1% (142 votes)
B. Increase 10-20%. (boom) - 1% (150 votes)
C. Increase 5-10%. - 12% (1270 votes)
D. Increase 2-5%. - 29% (3166 votes)
E. No real change. - 25% (2720 votes)
F. Decrease 2-5%. - 11% (1140 votes)
G. Decrease 5-10%. - 7% (809 votes)
H. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash). - 5% (540 votes)
I. Decrease over 20% (crash). -4% (459 votes)
J. I really have no idea. - 4% (460 votes)

Voting has now ended but you can still click 'post reply' to discuss below. Thanks

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IveSeenTheLight

At 1000 votes 74% of the voters think house prices will stay the same or rise in the next 12 months.

Only 21% think house prices will be lower in the next 12 months.

beer_tins

True, but only 16% predict rises of more than 5%. So safe to say most people aren't expecting a boom. A change of between 0 and 5% seems about right to me.

GSXRCarlos

I said no real change, but i'm expecting things to pick back up again

There are a number of people (like myself) who are (were - lol) first time buyers, looking to capitalise on cheap(er) prices.

I had savings in the bank and was waiting for the right time for me, property value dropping, has made people like me move, and therefore started to generate supply and demand shifts

beingjdc

They will go pretty much nowhere for the time being. Then it will depend whether serious recovery and inflation kicks in first (in which case they'll start going up and it'll be self-sustaining for a while) or merely inflation-panic and an increase in interest rates to 'normal' levels, in which case they'll fall again by about the same as they did in the mini-crash we just had.

See also available bank funding levels, Government decisions about the phasing out of direct support, international money flows, value of the currency, number of foreign buyers, changes in the tax system, etc etc. Too many unknowables to say anything for sure - but at present prices any interest rate in the normal historic range makes it cheaper to rent, which means they're still overvalued.

as12111

StiflersMom wrote: »

Good for you Carlos !!

:j

I did the same thing, and bought this time last year too. Everyone around me told me I was mad - but I'm glad I did now.

My little flat is up well over £20k, and still rising !

:beer:

Good for you. Now other people will have to fork out an extra £20k and pay over the odds should they be in the unfortunate position of needing to find a house/flat due to change of job or relocation. There won't be and shouldn't be any government bail outs through quantative easing or ridiculous help schemes for those in negative equity next time round.

teddyco

I don't see that the UK news services have covered this yet, but in the USA there is more trouble expected in the mortgage industry and it relates to two types of mortgages called Alt+A and Option Arm. These are mortgages that were sold with initial low repayments that balloon after 5 years.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are fearful that this may cause more unrest in the financial markets when these mortgages 'reset/recast' between 2010 and 2012.
The problem is that Option Arm and Alt+A mortgages were wrapped up and sold in the same way that sub prime mortgages were, and when folks start defaulting on these, it might possibly send another shock wave through the markets.

There are currently $1 Trillion worth of Option Arm and Alt+A mortgages that are expected to reset to higher payments starting in 2010.

Will this create more financial trouble for the UK? Wait and see........

Here is an investigative U.S. news show '60 Minutes' first broadcast in Dec. 2008 that details the problems headed for 2010 and 2011.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n

as12111

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

At 1000 votes 74% of the voters think house prices will stay the same or rise in the next 12 months.

Only 21% think house prices will be lower in the next 12 months.

They should be much lower because they're over-valued in this country. For the same price as a 1 bedroom flat in this country you can buy a 5-6 bedroom house in some other countries I have heard. As a consumer I would resent having to move house to certain areas for the sake of a new job or school for my children.

GSXRCarlos

as12111 wrote: »

Good for you. Now other people will have to fork out an extra £20k and pay over the odds should they be in the unfortunate position of needing to find a house/flat due to change of job or relocation. There won't be and shouldn't be any government bail outs through quantative easing or ridiculous help schemes for those in negative equity next time round.

I'm not sure on teh point you're trying to make, do you resent the poster for buying at the right time for them?

crankup

Topical for me. We fancy moving, but work order book doesnt give me quite enough confidence to go for it.
Still a lot of people getting laid off, frozen wages. No pay rise for me this year either.
Round here the prices have stayed the same for last year, a huge amount of flats struggling to be sold too. If prices seem to drop back a bit then we'll get in amongst it. Maybe.

geoffky

Its interest rates doubling you all have to worry about,,,,,coming to you quicker than you .realise...