February House Sales Double

HammerSmashedFace

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Proving housing bears wrong......

Again.

It's pretty obvious to most, that prices have risen in only a fraction of the country, most places have seen stagnation or falls, this is despite funny money low IR's etc. We also have the cold hard facts of a £200 billion funding gap and approvals that can't seem to get to 50% of pre-crash activity, which is of no surprise given the funding gap.

The media/government's favourite card to play last year was the 'YoY' figures, as they were being compared to the effects of the quickest crash in history, so were bound to show improvement.

They won't have that advantage this year, we also have the spectre that after the election we are going to have to start paying the country's debt down or face a sterling crisis that could put IR's above 10% within months, destroying house prices.

YoY I see prices down by the end of the year, unless transactions/aprrovals dip again, then they might hold steady, but as a say only in a fraction of the country.

googler

February's figures were double those in Januaury - but January was way down on December!

So all that this shows is a big dip in January, and February's figures getting back to where they were.....? Unfortunately, we can't tell this for certain from their percentages - some real numbers would help.



November - listings down 9.0% sales down 8.3%December - listings down 46.3% sales down 33.2%2010January - listings up 38.2%sales down 18.0%February - listings up 91.5%sales up 136.6%

Generali

I make that listings up 30% since November FWIW.

abaxas

So let me get this right.

The amount of properties on the market is increasing but the amount of mortgage funds available is not.

Hmmmmm

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

So let me get this right.

The amount of properties on the market is increasing but the amount of mortgage funds available is not.

Hmmmmm

the first part i agree with - the 2nd (bold) part, is this really the case?

abaxas

chucky wrote: »

the first part i agree with - the 2nd (bold) part, is this really the case?

About 1/3 of the available mortgage funds disspeared in late 2007 with the demise of the UK subprime lenders (GE, Morgan Stanley etc etc).

There is no sign of them returning to the market, if anything they continue their attempts to bail out of their current commitments.

Maybe the amount of funds is actually decreasing, who knows.

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

About 1/3 of the available mortgage funds disspeared in late 2007 with the demise of the UK subprime lenders (GE, Morgan Stanley etc etc).

There is no sign of them returning to the market, if anything they continue their attempts to bail out of their current commitments.

Maybe the amount of funds is actually decreasing, who knows.

if you're comparing to 2007 and the peak of the market you are correct.

your post comes across as there isn't enough funds to lend for the current number of (increasing) transactions. that's not the case.

abaxas

chucky wrote: »

if you're comparing to 2007 and the peak of the market you are correct.

your post comes across as there isn't enough funds to lend for the current number of (increasing) transactions. that's not the case.

So let me get this right, you beleive the banks will lower lending to business to lend more to property buying?

If they do, the 70% club will look like bulls.

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

So let me get this right, you beleive the banks will lower lending to business to lend more to property buying?

If they do, the 70% club will look like bulls.

not sure i said that in my post - where did you get that from?

chucky wrote: »

if you're comparing to 2007 and the peak of the market you are correct.

your post comes across as there isn't enough funds to lend for the current number of (increasing) transactions. that's not the case.

Generali

abaxas wrote: »

About 1/3 of the available mortgage funds disspeared in late 2007 with the demise of the UK subprime lenders (GE, Morgan Stanley etc etc).

There is no sign of them returning to the market, if anything they continue their attempts to bail out of their current commitments.

Maybe the amount of funds is actually decreasing, who knows.

FWIW, my guess is it's rising but very slowly. M4 lending is barely rising and mortgage lending is a big proportion of total lending in the UK IIRC.