Britain faces 'oil crunch' within five years, Richard Branson warns

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Kohoutek wrote: »

Suburban living for example becomes impossible if energy prices are so high that the average family cannot afford to run a car.

But perfectly possible, if we build new nuclear power stations from existing proven technology, and drive electric cars which are commercially available today.

In the event of a severe oil shortage and subsequent price spike, society will migrate to different technologies for most transport, and could do so relatively quickly if forced to. Within a decade at most.

Removing most transport and energy generation from oil demand would massively extend the lifespan of remaining reserves, and oil prices would revert to lower levels for the few essential uses for which we don't (yet)have a cost effective alternative.

HammerSmashedFace

Kohoutek wrote: »

One of the biggest problems I think is that our economic system is based on the idea of infinite growth, but the fact is we're living on a planet with finite resources. The price of energy going up and up is not going to be good for any economy, to put it mildly.

Indeed, the main reason for the perception that infinite growth is somehow achievable is that the earth has given us a massive surplus of stored energy that has been formed over a couple of billion years, that stored energy has been used at an alarming rate in the last century, which as bought us to the the peak we now find ourselves at.

Growth that we have seen over, say, the last 60 years will not be repeated again, given the global population and the expectations of that population. The party is coming to an end whether people want to admit it or not.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Kohoutek wrote: »

The price of energy going up and up is not going to be good for any economy, to put it mildly.

But it's not the price of ALL energy.

It's only the price of SOME forms of energy.

And as the price of oil energy rises, society will adopt other forms of energy, economy of scale will kick in, and the price of energy will come back down.

HammerSmashedFace

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But perfectly possible, if we build new nuclear power stations from existing proven technology, and drive electric cars which are commercially available today.

It just doesn't work mate, nuclear power stations use massive amounts of fossil fuels to construct, the same with cars, we also have the spectre of peak uranium within 3 decades, less if it's used in greater quantities. If we had time we could get around some of these issues, we simply do not have the time to change such fundamental issues for a global population.

For instance 90% of the world's oil consumption is used to transport people and goods, how does anyone think it can humanly be possible to fundamentally change this on a global scale with 15 years or so, it simply cannot be done.

Davesnave

Kohoutek wrote: »

Suburban living for example becomes impossible if energy prices are so high that the average family cannot afford to run a car.

Agree with most of what you say, but what does this mean? I seem to remember living in the suburbs of London with no car in the 50s.

Kohoutek

Davesnave wrote: »

Agree with most of what you say, but what does this mean? I seem to remember living in the suburbs of London with no car in the 50s.

Hopefully people can adapt. But if you've got a job and only realistic option to get to work is driving, then you're stuck, the same problem with people who drive their kids to school several miles from home.

I think we're better prepared than many countries in the sense that we've got quite a extensive rail network, for all the criticism it gets.

Davesnave

Forget cars. In an oil starved future, producing food will be of primary importance, so supplying sufficient of it to make fertilizer will be of paramount importance. Much of the rest will be needed for distribution.

Heating cold houses might come a poor third; I'm not sure.:(

Davesnave

Kohoutek wrote: »

Hopefully people can adapt. But if you've got a job and only realistic option to get to work is driving, then you're stuck, the same problem with people who drive their kids to school several miles from home.

I think we're better prepared than many countries in the sense that we've got quite a extensive rail network, for all the criticism it gets.

We'd cope. It was only two years ago that my daughter regularly walked 3.5 miles to school, and back, just because she enjoyed it!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

For instance 90% of the world's oil consumption is used to transport people and goods, how does anyone think it can humanly be possible to fundamentally change this on a global scale with 15 years or so, it simply cannot be done.

Of course it could be done, and it will be when the cost benefit equation makes it neccessary.

The ONLY transport without an already existing and commercially viable alternative is aviation. Which only uses a few percent. No doubt that will be a priority use, along with the few petrochemical processes for which there is no alternative.

But transport will switch when using other energy sources becomes cheaper. And remaining stocks of oil will be reserved for critical applications, for which there will be plenty for a very long time to come.

ILW

Davesnave wrote: »

Forget cars. In an oil starved future, producing food will be of primary importance, so supplying sufficient of it to make fertilizer will be of paramount importance. Much of the rest will be needed for distribution.

Heating cold houses might come a poor third; I'm not sure.:(

No point in producing all that food if you can't drive to Tescos to pick it up.