File On 4 on the banks exposure to commercial property

chucky

Kohoutek wrote: »

Did you read the rest of my post? Why do think a 50% drop in Northern Irish residential property over the next eight years is impossible, in a region where 30% of the workforce is in the public sector.

thanks for that - 50% off house prices!!! lol.

Kohoutek

chucky wrote: »

thanks for that - 50% off house prices!!! lol.

Whatever mate. Back to fantasy land, where you refuse to believe house price bubbles exist in capitalist economies.

Pobby

50%, a distinct possibility, certainly for certain areas. I know Wales very well and was travelling there on a regular basis throughout the boom. This is my take on it.

Cardiff, like a lot of the U.K started to rocket in price. The surrounding areas were much slower to follow suit. The valley towns, were cheap to buy in. Say 20 to 30 thousand pounds for a terraced house. Indeed, in those areas a nice detached was maybe 60 or 70 thousand. Cardiff became way to expensive so folk started moving out to the old mining towns and it was then prices began to rocket.

Even the locals felt that it was way to dear. Friends of mine, some 11 odd miles from Cardiff, considered 65k for a 3 bed room terraced was way to dear.

Looking at Rightmove, there are pages and pages of properties at under £70k , indeed many at below £50k. Prices like that 3 years ago, imho, would have been hard to come by.

Bear in mind, I searched a 20 mile radius of Cardiff so the places mentioned are in easy reach of either Cardiff or indeed Swansea.

bernard_shaw

It was interesting to hear just how much it was Scottish developers, Scottish property funds and Scottish banks who were/remain involved in this commercial property bubble.

So much for the Scottish reputation for thrift.

fc123

Unfortunately, we are (reluctantly) considering taking on something modest in central London for a year or 2....studio space in W1/Soho/Noho.

It's really hard to research rents but they seem to be stuck @ approx £25 - £30 sq ft with some 'media' style (the difference is brick walls instead of plaster) @ £45+.
I have found something undesirable and shabby in a 70's build on wrongish side of Oxford St @ £15 sq ft....is it a teaser rate ?? (or silly serrvice charges per sq ft to make the rent seem cheap)..I will find out tomo.
We will only consider something on our terms, no long lease, no PG's (but a rent deposit of 6 months is OK) and there seems to be masses of empty office/studio space in the area....loads of basements too. Found one 450 sq ft in Soho @ £80 pwk...but I can't face working in a basement).

Probelm I have is I have no idea what the 'boom' rents were..I only know a lot of rag trade people who have left the area as it got too expensive.