The next phase of the house price crash.

Pobby

doire wrote: »

40% in NI and still falling :j

OK no-one gives a !!!! about NI...probably the same way most dont give a !!!! about Aberdeen either ....but im happy anyway

I do ( sadly these days very little ) business out there. They are nutters!!!! I thought that they would have learned a lesson from Southern Ireland. The funniest ( saddest ) housing ponzi scheme going. In some parts of NI, housing was still falling up to about 2003. Then bang. It went nuts! Little terraces in Belfast, like the Falls Road, were hitting £150,000.

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

This could have been a credible argument 12-18 months ago.

It falls flat on it's face once you look at what Lloyds have been doing recently setting up their RMBS deals. There obviously an appetite for RMBS otherwise the Lloyds deals wouldn't have been that popular.

The moneyweek editors are getting desperate trying to peddle the same old news to the HPC cult...

Not for those expecting cheap mortgages though. As the money is being borrowed at between 1.15 - 1.30 bps above Libor. The issue last October was at 1.70 bps above libor.

Lloyds will relending this money at rates 3.75% upwards.

My assumption is that is all part of getting HBOS's balance sheet stabilised. £2.5 billion is small beer in the scheme of the overall numbers.

As HBOS would need to find £165 billion to repay the SLS by the end of 2015.

HammerSmashedFace

bouche wrote: »

You need to jump on that bandwagon!

Buy now - before its too late

ain't nothing like the real thing - baby:)

Join date Jan 2010 ?, I guess I can forgive you for not knowing my circumstances, so just to be clear, I bought outright a few months ago, however unlike most who own a house I do not get butterflies in my stomach or p!ss my pants with glee when I see rising house price indices, it is folly to believe that ever increasing prices, shared ownership, 70 hour working week to service mortgage debt, children stuffed in childecare for 10 hours a day.... etc is good for society, IMO it's plainly not.

There are far more important issues out there than making a few quid, although unfortunately it seems many don't share my view.

doire_2

Pobby wrote: »

I do ( sadly these days very little ) business out there. They are nutters!!!! I thought that they would have learned a lesson from Southern Ireland. The funniest ( saddest ) housing ponzi scheme going. In some parts of NI, housing was still falling up to about 2003. Then bang. It went nuts! Little terraces in Belfast, like the Falls Road, were hitting £150,000.

For a 'country' massively reliant on the public sector for jobs, i feel there is a lot more pain to come for NI.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Not for those expecting cheap mortgages though. As the money is being borrowed at between 1.15 - 1.30 bps above Libor. The issue last October was at 1.70 bps above libor.

Lloyds will relending this money at rates 3.75% upwards.

so you now think that 3.75% is a high rate to pay on a mortgage???
so from the OP saying there is no money to lend as RMBS is dead, to now there is RMBS money to lend and now 3.75% is expensive.
i really have heard it all from the bear spinmeisters... keep it up...

Thrugelmir wrote: »

£2.5 billion is small beer in the scheme of the overall numbers.

small beer for you maybe but that is 20,000 mortgages for each issue. that's two now and it's an extra 40,000 approvals on top of current numbers... HSBC, Barcap and Goldmans are currently preparing issues but there just small beer. :T

obviously an extra 40,000 approvals is small beer for just one lender and i'm just ramping and not actually being realistic at all:)

Cleaver

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

Join date Jan 2010 ?, I guess I can forgive you for not knowing my circumstances, so just to be clear, I bought outright a few months ago, however unlike most who own a house I do not get butterflies in my stomach or p!ss my pants with glee when I see rising house price indices...

There are far more important issues out there than making a few quid, although unfortunately it seems many don't share my view.

Sorry Mr Face, I always enjoy reading your posts but often find I disagree with them.

I don't think 'most people who own a house' get "butterflies in [their] stomach" or "p*ss [their] pants" when they read house price news. Most people, in my opinion, don't really take that much notice. They have a vague idea which way house prices are heading, but people on this forum (including myself) are pretty much the only people I've ever encountered who enjoy, and even look foward to, the Nationwide releasing house price figures and then devour them, arguing back and forth about seasonal adjustments, ups and downs, bias, VI etc. etc.

Most people buy or rent a property, live in it, enjoy their life and then probably take a passing interest in house prices. People who take a real interest will be weird obsessives (like us), a minority of people who find themselves both in negative equity and financial trouble and... well, I think that's it. Even most first time buyers I know in real life who can't afford to buy don't really care that much because whether they rent or own a house isn't really that high up in the list of factors that makes their life enjoyable.

To summerise, I think the majority of people out there do share your view that there is more important aspects in life than making money. How many people actually sold their house to rent in 05/06/07/08 to make a load of cash? Not very many at all. Most were happy with their lot and happy just living in their house. I sometimes think we're all guitly of thinking this forum or various newspaper articles and the media represents the mood, views and feeling of the general public when in fact nothing could be further than the truth.

HammerSmashedFace

Glad you like some of my posts mate, it's healthy to have disagreement about issues, not everyone can have the same outlook, and I'm pretty sure not many people would want mine.:D

carefullycautious

Listening to radio 4 this morning about the 'Lost Generation' ie our young who have no jobs to go to.

So who will be buying these overpriced homes in the future. Certainly not our next generation.

silvercar

carefullycautious wrote: »

Listening to radio 4 this morning about the 'Lost Generation' ie our young who have no jobs to go to.

So who will be buying these overpriced homes in the future. Certainly not our next generation.

Their parents, having made money on the back of HPI.

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

so you now think that 3.75% is a high rate to pay on a mortgage???
so from the OP saying there is no money to lend as RMBS is dead, to now there is RMBS money to lend and now 3.75% is expensive.
i really have heard it all from the bear spinmeisters... keep it up...


small beer for you maybe but that is 20,000 mortgages for each issue. that's two now and it's an extra 40,000 approvals on top of current numbers... HSBC, Barcap and Goldmans are currently preparing issues but there just small beer. :T

obviously an extra 40,000 approvals is small beer for just one lender and i'm just ramping and not actually being realistic at all:)

The large tranche of £6 billion including fees is costing Lloyds 1.85% above Libor. So with a 2.5% margin would mean LlloydsHBOS are relending this at 5%.

This isn't new money. Its merely refinancing existing debt for liquidity or in simple terms "cash".

I see no relevance to this being a bear or bull issue. Its basic commercial reality.

By cheap money I am refering to mortgage deals with a margin below 2% above BOE base. Something which property investors seem to be banking on, in order for HPI to resume.