70% club unmasks the great housing myth

macaque_2

We keep being told that we need to build 240,000 new homes every year to keep up with housing demand.

http://www.building.co.uk/story.asp?storycode=3130886

Where did that number come from? No one is living in tents so there must be enough houses for people at the moment. In fact, there are more than 1m empty homes and probably many millions more when you take into account holiday homes.

So why do we need another 3 million homes? Is it natural population growth?


http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=369

Clearly not!. The birth rate is not enough to sustain the current population.

How about immigration?


According this we are seeing a rapid reversal in net migration. If you extrapolate between 2004 and 2008 net migration is heading into negative territory by 2015. If you extrapolate between 2007 and 2008, we might already into negative migration territory.

People living longer? Well this might have an effect but old people tend to live in communal homes.

Is it because more people are living on their own? That makes no sense since single person dwellings are going begging.

So how many new homes do we really need? Based on the above numbers, we need no more than 50,000 new homes every year but quite possibly less than zero. Based on annualised stats from Q4 of 2009 we are now building over 120,000 new homes each year.

http://www.nhbc.co.uk/NewsandComment/UKnewhouse-buildingstatistics/Year2009/Name,39637,en.html

So there we have it. This story about needing 240,000 new homes every year is a huge myth. When people subtract building starts from 240,000 and declare a chronic under build problem, they are just fooling us. Its a scam.

In fact, it would seem from the above numbers that we are already building far more homes than we actually need! How long is this stupid spin going to go on for?

StevieJ

macaque wrote: »

We keep being told that we need to build 240,000 new homes every year to keep up with housing demand.

http://www.building.co.uk/story.asp?storycode=3130886

Where did that number come from? No one is living in tents so there must be enough houses for people at the moment. In fact, there are more than 1m empty homes and probably many millions more when you take into account holiday homes.

Ask Dopester he is living in his mums back room

phil_b_2

GO Team 70%!!!!!

Batchy

I think you will find its mortality rates,.. ie the age people die at... with people unable to afford to drink and not able to afford to smoke, and unable to eat sufficiently... I think the only thing we can blame early death on is obesity.

People tend to live longer now due to advance in medical provisions and people being aware of things and health and having regular checks and medication innovation.

so where someone would live to 70-90 it could very well be 90-110 in the future.

Although my great nan lived till a ripe old 92 many years ago, not everyone was so fortunate.

hethmar

And the fact immigrants tend to have much larger families.

System

Housing shortage does not mean homeless people. Think about all the 20-30's living with parents still.

Harry_Powell

Apart from people living longer, and being healthier so that the majority don't need to go into sheltered accomodation or old folks homes, there is also a larger number of single people. The days of 'staying together for the kids' are long gone.

Also there is VAT charged on repairs to existing properties, whereas new builds are zero rated. It's therefore cheaper to knock down and rebuild properties than to renovate existing ones. A mad waste of resources.

hayley_jayne

Interesting points

However

but old people tend to live in communal homes.

That trend is starting to reverse. Within the Transformation of Adult Social Care a huge emphasis is being made on supporting people in their own homes. That is driven by a will for people to have better outcomes and also it is far cheaper for people to remain independent than be in residential care.

H x

adr0ck

macaque wrote: »

Based on annualised stats from Q4 of 2009 we are now building over 120,000 new homes each year.

http://www.nhbc.co.uk/NewsandComment/UKnewhouse-buildingstatistics/Year2009/Name,39637,en.html

your link shows that were not building 120,000 homes a year

have you got a link that shows were building over 120,000? (did you put in the wrong link?)

IveSeenTheLight

Yawn to the OP and the thread

[sing]
Here we go round the mulberry bush, the mulberry bush, the mulberry bush
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