Predictions for NW Jan 2010 MOM rises

nollag2006

With house prices now 10% above their lows of last Spring, how much do you think the Nationwide January 2010 MOM rise will be?

I think the strong end to 2009, and the cold snap in early Jan might mute house price rises for the month, and would probably think it has only been 0.5% or so, but will rise back up in the months to come

baileysbattlebus

nollag2006 wrote: »

With house prices now 10% above their lows of last Spring, how much do you think the Nationwide January 2010 MOM rise will be?

I think the strong end to 2009, and the cold snap in early Jan might mute house price rises for the month, and would probably think it has only been 0.5% or so, but will rise back up in the months to come

I think I can say without fear of contradiction NW figures for Jan will show a 1.2% rise......

They've already been published..... on the 29th I think.

nollag2006

Up 0.25 to 1%

Oooh !! So they have:
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jan_2010.pdf

How embarassing !!

Mental note to self - learn to Google first !!

Good to see that they are up so strongly though!

Dan:_4

Up 1 to 1.5%

LOL Brit still got it miles out

nollag2006

Up 0.25 to 1%

Dan: wrote: »

LOL Brit still got it miles out

Oh dear !! Poor old bears !!

:j

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Down: 0.25 to 1%

nollag2006 wrote: »

Oh dear !! Poor old bears !!

:j

Just edit the thread and make it for Feb, as what happens next is quite interesting.

I'm voting for the February data now, and I think it'll be slightly down, as surely the end of the stamp duty holiday caused some competition and an increase in sales that lagged into Jan, but Feb and possibly Mar could be much quieter.

So slightly down in Feb, and slightly up in Mar, would be my best guess.

boomerangs

nollag2006 wrote: »

How embarassing !!

You said it! Yet more poor bait from nollag. He doesn't even know what month of the year it is. :rotfl:

nollag2006

Up 0.25 to 1%

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So slightly down in Feb, and slightly up in Mar, would be my best guess.

I'd probably agree with that. TBH some slowdown would be no bad thing to allow FTBs and investors to get into the market before prices go out of reach.

In fact, I think the market could well be subdued up until the election, and then it should start to pick up momentum assuming the incoming government, of whatever hue, has the mandate to address the size of the government deficet.

nollag2006

Up 0.25 to 1%

boomerangs wrote: »

You said it! Yet more poor bait from nollag. He doesn't even know what month of the year it is. :rotfl:

I'm not quite as embarassed as those on here who are predicting the return of the 2007 property crash in March of this year will be when the figures don't back them up. Looking at a 1.2% increase over the usually quiet month of January doesn't augur well for them

:eek:

Still, much like the 70% drop by Christmas 2009 prediction, they will claim that it wasn't March this year that they were talking about but any particular March at some point over the next 15 - 20 years !!

:rotfl:

System

Brit, hahahah

Could this thread be a halifax one instead?