The Housing Shortage Timebomb

Cleaver

abaxas wrote: »

If there was a genuiune housing shortage, people would be breaking the law to obtain shelter.

It isn't a logical conclusion to assume that a housing shortage would cause an outbreak of homeless people who then 'break the law to obtain shelter'. A housing shortage, or indeed an inability for people to buy propety as it's too expensive, might lead to people living in flatshares, or with parents, or two couples to a house etc. etc. rather than buying their own home.

dgl1001

A few points to note (working in the industry with a good understanding of the subject)

• The housing target proposed by the NHPAU of 300k pa, is to meet current demand and is not considered sufficient to lower prices in the long term - about 400k pa annum would be required
• The target keeps on being lowered/ extended. When i was at Uni it was 3.3m homes by 2016 - we won't make that either.
• The household projections used to determine the level of growth have always UNDERESTIMATED demand
• the planning system cannot cope with the proposed build rates
• If the conservatives make in in they propose to change the planning system again, with a lower requirement to build houses (authoroities have stopped their development plans already because of this
• The picture is even worse for affordable housing as the Homes and Community Agency is quicky running out of money and funding for new homes is going to "fall off a cliff" in 2011. Please note that the delivery of new social housing is reliant upon open market housing coming forward
• In the medium to long term (and maybe the short term) prices are going to rise significantly
• Desipte the best efforts of Money Week, HPC.com and number of bears, the law of supply and demend does apply to the housing market
• This is a terrible state of affairs that will have massive implications for the UK
• The empty homes in the UK are emplty for a reason and will not address the long term shortage of housing
• Oh, and the worst part., the undersupply of housing has been going on for about 20 to 30 years

blue_monkey_2

RabbitMad wrote: »

I bet lots of people said that after the 91 crash.

People have short memories and house prices will bubble again (when I don't know - 1, 2, 5, 10, 15 or 20 years time maybe), they will certain increase in price as we are an anglo saxon economy and inflation just they way of life.

I disagree, I think a hard lesson has been learned this time. Back in 91 kids were not given the same information they are now, it was basic stuff, I think parents - and kids - are more clued up because of the likes of this site and because of the acess to news and the Internet. Knowledge is power. I think there is a shock coming as parents accept that their kids are going to be with them for much longer and just make their house a bit bigger to accomodate them. Back in the 30's there would be generations living together - the same is coming. In fact it has already started.

20 years ago you could have gone and bought a house falling apart and done it up and have a nice house to live in. Now that house is being bought by an investor who wants to either knock the one house down and stick 4 shoebox houses in it's place or turn it into bedsits. You could have bought a house on one wage and a couple could have had children and mum be home to look after them. Times have changed drastically and mum and dad both work, kids are shipped off to childminders. These are parents who do not WANT to have to do this but NEED to do this to have somewhere to live. And since they have bought house prices have risen much further. My husbands pay rise was certinaly not in line with House Price Rises - and he was lucky to get one!!

I think that some people will be desperate for having their own place so will buy, however, people will not be buying like they were and this is the key thing. The houses that do sell are people who are desperate to move so there may be some movement - however, the majority of For Sale signs have been replaced with To Let signs - and a lot of those people living in those rented houses are getting Housing Benefit also.

dgl1001

Blue Monkey - i'm really struggling to understand what you you are trying to say - are you saying that there is is not shortage of housing?

blue_monkey_2

Also to add that 20 years ago people generally had one family home each. Now people have a home and a 'holiday home' and each 'holiday home' is a house that is unoccupied for 90% of the year, another home that is unavailable for a family to live in.

I have a timeshare and put it in a bank, if I go into the bank to see what I can exchange for there are loads of houses and cottages in Cornwall available for exchange, houses that could be perfect family homes but are probably empty for 50% of the year, maybe more, because the buyer has stuck them all up as timeshare.

On reflection, I think it quite sad that while people are crying out for somewhere to live there are lots of houses like these standing empty because someone has bought somewhere and only wants to use it for weekends in July and August if they can get the time off. And if they are not in the Algarve that weekend.

I guess we'll just be playing a waiting game, waiting for the parents to pop their cloggs so the kids are left with it and have to sell it to pay the IHT, and then another overpriced house will be back on the market..... but where are the buyers this time?? Still at home with Mum & Dad?? Because they will not have the £320k+ asking price.

We have a long way to go yet, no doubt we will still be here in 20 years time talking about our kids being under our feet and generally having a good whinge about it.

Laethia

In a way I echo blue_monkey..

I think our attitude towards housing as a nation needs to change. Yes, we have a lot of people in this country, and not enough suitable properties to cater to the needs of our changing society.

However, I remember as a child hearing that my grandparents lived with two other couples in a house share when they were first married, for about 2 years until they had their first child. No shame in this for them, apparently that was what all but the super-wealthy did. But nowadays we put the pressure on ourselves that we must have a place to ourselves, and that place must be nicely furnished and meet our needs perfectly.

I know most people on this website tend to be more enlightened but the above perspective does seem to be the standard view!

So, IMO, we have a housing shortage that does need to be addressed. But as we all know, these things can't just change overnight especially if the shortage has been a problem for 20-30 years as dgl1001said! In the mean time, and taking into account our recent problems with the economy I think there will be a shift in the way we live. More people sharing homes where they wouldn't have before, perhaps older people living with their relatives, young people living at home for longer (its already happening). Hopefully society will see the effect family breakdown has on society as a whole (socially and economically) and more steps to keep families together where possible. All these things could reduce the number of single resident dwellings that have increased so dramatically in recent years.

Just my rather ill-informed "two cents"

dgl1001

blue_monkey wrote: »

Also to add that 20 years ago people generally had one family home each. Now people have a home and a 'holiday home' and each 'holiday home' is a house that is unoccupied for 90% of the year, another home that is unavailable for a family to live in.

I have a timeshare and put it in a bank, if I go into the bank to see what I can exchange for there are loads of houses and cottages in Cornwall available for exchange, houses that could be perfect family homes but are probably empty for 50% of the year, maybe more, because the buyer has stuck them all up as timeshare.

On reflection, I think it quite sad that while people are crying out for somewhere to live there are lots of houses like these standing empty because someone has bought somewhere and only wants to use it for weekends in July and August if they can get the time off. And if they are not in the Algarve that weekend.

I guess we'll just be playing a waiting game, waiting for the parents to pop their cloggs so the kids are left with it and have to sell it to pay the IHT, and then another overpriced house will be back on the market..... but where are the buyers this time?? Still at home with Mum & Dad?? Because they will not have the £320k+ asking price.

We have a long way to go yet, no doubt we will still be here in 20 years time talking about our kids being under our feet and generally having a good whinge about it.

Can i ask a question? is the fact that your kids are still at home a sign that there is a shortage of housing?

blue_monkey_2

dgl1001 wrote: »

Blue Monkey - i'm really struggling to understand what you you are trying to say - are you saying that there is is not shortage of housing?

I am saying that IF there is a shortage of housing then people will deal with it.

There IS a shortage of affordable/social housing.

I can drive around my town and see no end of houses being available. However, they are not ones that people can afford to buy nor rent.

I myself, with my family, faced homelessness 2 years ago because my mother was selling the house we was living and maintaining for her (there is a long story there, we got shafted big time but it is not for now). We had been on the housing list (back up really) for a long time but they told us that if my mother wanted us out she would have to take us to court etc... which is what she did.

My husband earns an average wage, I am a carer for my son who is disabled, we have no childcare so working is not an option for me as no-one will look after hime. Likewise as was not moving as my husband needed to stay in this srea for his job.

There was no end of houses we could have gone to live in but..... my husband had to be BRINGING HOME 3 times the rent before we could even look at a propert. The cheapest rents of which were £900 a month. The council told me that it was an 'exeuctive wage' and I said that is what they are asking for. Buying was obviously not an option as we had ploughed all of our money into my mothers house (don;t even get me started on that one...).

So there was plenty for us to rent but not that we, average wage earners, could afford.

Locally they built lots of apartments - could not sell any and they are now occupied by people from the HA.

Long winded sorry but felt there needed and explaination.

So, no, I do not believe there is a 'housing shortage', the papers are full every week with houses, many have vacant possession. There is however a shortage of affordable housing and this is what most people are in need of.

There is a programme on Monday called How Money Changed Us - BBC2 9.00 I think. Might be very interesting to watch.

Laethia

PS when my Grandparents bought their own house it cost £95...they lived in it until they died in 2001 when it was worth £120k!

I think we will also start seeking our own solutions to the housing shortage. Adult children living at home unable to afford their own accomodation will likely start better utilising the space in their parents home...eg garage conversions/"granny" flats...even those log cabin houses that can be built in the garden as a seperate bungalow! I think planning permission will eventually be easier to get for such constructions out of neccessity. I'd be quite happy to move into a log cabin with my partner in my mothers garden if the planning rules for her area allowed it!

blue_monkey_2

dgl1001 wrote: »

Can i ask a question? is the fact that your kids are still at home a sign that there is a shortage of housing?

It will be a sign that the houses are too expensive for them to buy.

I myself flitted from place to place because my childhood was miserable and I wanted out. I hope that my children have a much happier life with me and if they have to stay here then it'll not be an issue.

We do not own BTW but are in a HA house. We are just your typical average family. 10 years ago my husbands income would have been more than enough to afford us a nice house and I could have raised the kids, now there is no chance. We do not get any benefits (except DS Disability money) and we live comfortably. We do most of the work in the house ourselves new kitchen coming, new bathroom, we have a car we take holidays, 10 years ago we could have bought somewhere like this. Not now. So we have to rely on social housing.

In fact we worked out that, say, we live to 80 the amount of rent we pay here will be less than if we had a mortgage and interest to pay. We pay £120 pw for our rent but there are no deposits and we have a secure tenancy. Plus, if the kids are still living here when we are old the tenancy can be passed over to them as well. It is all about security for me to be honest though.