Blanchflower: House price rises reflect unreliable property data

IveSeenTheLight

tommy75 wrote: »

Nothing rising in the 100k to 200k area throughout the areas im watching, this includes areas around Chester, Northwich, Macclesfield and Altrincham apart from the odd seller putting their house up a couple of grand on a house that isn't selling anyway. There is an increased number of 'sstc' in all areas though. I have also looked at other areas throughout Lancashire such as Preston and Bolton and this is the same. You welcome to check yourself.. This is why I asked if it was the 'million' pound homes pushing prices up.

Quite a wide distance in the areas, but all contained within the cheshire region.
Again looking at LR it would seem on average they are rising.
Even looking at the properties between £100k and £200k (see property type breakdown below)

Semi-detached increased from £129,861 to latest figures at £135,864
Terraced increased from £100,485 to latest figures at £105,130
Maisonette / Flat increased from £141,048 to latest figures at £147,568
I've only omitted Detached (which also increased) because they are above the £200k limit you set.
As you can see, this property breakdown eliminates your theory that million pound properties are skewing the figures

Remember these are all average sold figures, not asking prices.

doire_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Pretty sure we haven't been invaded by Italians waving big wads of Euro's up here....... I think I'd have noticed the food getting better if we had.

I thought all the restaurants in your area were jammed packed. A sure sign the recession must be over

tommy75

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Quite a wide distance in the areas, but all contained within the cheshire region.
Again looking at LR it would seem on average they are rising.
Even looking at the properties between £100k and £200k (see property type breakdown below)

Semi-detached increased from £129,861 to latest figures at £135,864
Terraced increased from £100,485 to latest figures at £105,130
Maisonette / Flat increased from £141,048 to latest figures at £147,568
I've only omitted Detached (which also increased) because they are above the £200k limit you set.
As you can see, this property breakdown eliminates your theory that million pound properties are skewing the figures

Remember these are all average sold figures, not asking prices.

Right ok, I did a search on Rightmove for Macclesfield + 3 mile radius with the price range 100k to 200k : http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?searchType=SALE&locationIdentifier=REGION^890&insId=1&radius=3.0&displayPropertyType=houses&minBedrooms=2&maxBedrooms=&minPrice=100000&maxPrice=200000&retirement=&partBuyPartRent=&maxDaysSinceAdded=&includeSSTC=true&_includeSSTC=on&x=48&y=10&sortByPriceDescending=&primaryDisplayPropertyType=&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=&oldDisplayPropertyType=&oldPrimaryDisplayPropertyType=&newHome=&auction=false

This gives me 42 pages of results.Of these 42 pages there is only 3 houses with asking prices higher than when the house was first marketed. There is one on page 1, one on page 16, and the other 23. This is out of 414 homes that are the same price or lower than when they first came to market. From this information we can we conclude the trend in Macclesfield and surrounding area is still down for homes in the 100k to 200k area?

chucky

tommy75 wrote: »

This gives me 42 pages of results.Of these 42 pages there is only 3 houses with asking prices higher than when the house was first marketed. There is one on page 1, one on page 16, and the other 23. This is out of 414 homes that are the same price or lower than when they first came to market. From this information we can we conclude the trend in Macclesfield and surrounding area is still down for homes in the 100k to 200k area?

i think that you may be looking at different things - ISTL is looking at the sold prices which are increasing while you're looking at asking prices which are dropping.

the actual percentage of the asking price achieved by the seller (actual sale price) has been increasing month on month.

i say this is happening in average in general as i don't know your area.

Really2

tommy75 wrote: »

This gives me 42 pages of results.Of these 42 pages there is only 3 houses with asking prices higher than when the house was first marketed. There is one on page 1, one on page 16, and the other 23. This is out of 414 homes that are the same price or lower than when they first came to market. From this information we can we conclude the trend in Macclesfield and surrounding area is still down for homes in the 100k to 200k area?

Are asking price increase on RM based on houses coming on to the market not ones on the market putting their price up.

People increasing the price of a unsold house is not a sign of rising prices.
Even in a rising market the majority of houses on the market either stays the same or lower.

Cant see how you conclude sales prices are down on the data you provided.

IveSeenTheLight

Really2 wrote: »

Are asking price increase on RM based on houses coming on to the market not ones on the market putting their price up.

People increasing the price of a an unsold house is not a sign of rising prices.
Even in a rising market the majority of houses on the market either stays the same or lower.

Cant see how you conclude sales prices are down on the data you provided.

Why don't some people understand the difference between asking and sold prices.
Asking prices mean diddly squat as to the amount you will be paying on your mortgage.
The sold price will

bernard_shaw

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Unless of course, what you are really trying to do is more along the lines of this......;)


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=134451

Yes, like you, I'm attempting to massage sentiment. I'm taking a position and ramming it down people's throats (though not as forcefully or as often as you do ). Nothing wrong with that. I don't necissarily believe anything I quote, but I'll quote it if it supports my self interest. I want a cheapo house.

You're very fond of referring to pages on HPC, aintcha?

So I had a 'wee lookie' and found these photos from your hometown. It seems very nice.

Bootski

bernard_shaw wrote: »

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=377455&Page=1

I think you're wrong and prices will rise:T

Dan:_4

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

I think it's commom knowledge that the data is unreliable, I only have to look on PB at a variety of areas to see that large swathes of the country have seen no rises whatsoever, only in the eyes of the VI is current price trend, reliable, believable or normal. In reality it's none of them.

If you believe this ad, why did you celebrate every month when the data went negative?

Bootski

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