UK 'to grow faster' than other major economies

StevieJ

ManAtHome wrote: »

Possibly because he only said it a couple of months ago - certainly didn't mention it in last years (March?) budget.!

I thought he said it in the middle of 2008 and his political masters leant on him to withdraw it

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1050794/Alistair-Darlings-shocking-admission-British-economy-60-year-low--going-worse.html

I know it is the DM but it was the first I came to

ManAtHome

Yep - sorry was thinking of his boss and the party line. Unreserved apology Mr Darling.

Rochdale_Pioneers

And why wouldn't the economy recover? What fundamentally has changed? A few banks went pop and are now state owned. Poorly run/capitalised businesses went under, replaced by others. Manufacturing suffered a slump but not wholesale destruction - even the steel plants near me on Teesside are being mothballed rather than dismantled.

Fundamentally manufacturing is still there. We here much drivvel about how manufacuring has shrunk in the UK - it hasn't. Go check the stats on economic production - every year in growth apart from last year. Its shrunk as a percentage of GDP but thats statistics for you. Greatly expand finance and GDP with it and suddenly a growing industrial sector looks like its going backwards.

StevieJ

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

And why wouldn't the economy recover? What fundamentally has changed? A few banks went pop and are now state owned. Poorly run/capitalised businesses went under, replaced by others. Manufacturing suffered a slump but not wholesale destruction - even the steel plants near me on Teesside are being mothballed rather than dismantled.
s.

Even Vauxhalls wanted their business back with no cuts at Ellesmere port but better productivity (3 shifts I think).

Thrugelmir

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Fundamentally manufacturing is still there. We here much drivvel about how manufacuring has shrunk in the UK - it hasn't. Go check the stats on economic production - every year in growth apart from last year. Its shrunk as a percentage of GDP but thats statistics for you. Greatly expand finance and GDP with it and suddenly a growing industrial sector looks like its going backwards.

There has been a 14% decline in the the past decade in manufacturing output.

Finance is contracting. And is forecast to contract further this year. As you said yourself a few banks have shut. Lloyds objective is to make cost savings of £1.5 billion from the enlarged group by the end of 2011. That suggests a considerable loss of permanent jobs.

kennyboy66_2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There has been a 14% decline in the the past decade in manufacturing output.

Whilst that is true, all the decline has been since the start of 2008.

Whilst manufacturing production bounced round a bit, there was negligible change between 2000 and the start of 2008.

What happens in the next 18 months will be interesting. Will it bounce back or will we see a permanent loss of capacity ?

My guess is the first - purely on exchange rates.

StevieJ

kennyboy66 wrote: »

My guess is the first - purely on exchange rates.

And businesses have held onto more of their workforce albeit on short time working.

Conrad

Does'nt surprise me in the least. There's very little the Chinese make that I want to buy.

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There has been a 14% decline in the the past decade in manufacturing output.

Again (and again) - we were told by the Thrugelmirs of 1970 to 1990 that the Japanese, Koreans et al would shut us down.

The thruglemirs got it all wrong, but this time for once you've got your finger on the pulse, yes?

Rochdale_Pioneers

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Whilst that is true, all the decline has been since the start of 2008.

Whilst manufacturing production bounced round a bit, there was negligible change between 2000 and the start of 2008.

I found 2 things - firstly this showing manufacturing as an index of 1995 levels:
1971 82.9
1991 92.8
1995 100
2000 105.1

Note the rate of increase accelerate rapidly out of the 1992 recession. Then this showing the last decade as an index of 2005:



What happened in 2001 and 2002?

The point is though that manufacturing has grown at an accelerated rate since we came out of the last recession. Don't listen to the nonsense that Britain doesn't make anything, or industry was run down under Labour, its bigger and healthier than it has been for generations.

Compare and contrast what is happening in this recession vs the last two or the 1970s. Factories are being put on short time, or given an extended maintenance shutdown, or worst case being mothballed - anything to avoid the solutions of the past: to close and demolish the facilities and throw the workforce onto long term dole. And credit is on both sides - management want to keep factories going, and workers are willing to take hours/salary cuts to make it viable. We've come a long way from unions desperate to run their industries into the ground in the 70s and a government desperate to remove the communist union threat by removing their industry from under them in the 80s