5 Reasons Rates Will Stay Low for Years....

Generali

I say 'investment strategy' as I was under the impression you had a couple of BTL places too. If not then sorry for that.

Double digit YoY HPI would be pretty amazing in a recession.

I am a secular bear on house prices due to the UK's demographics. In about 10 years time there will be a lot of people looking to retire with inadequate pensions. They'll be big sellers of their biggest asset I suspect. Time will tell if I'm right or not and I do think the UK should stop be so bloody precious about the coutryside and build some houses for people to live in.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

I say 'investment strategy' as I was under the impression you had a couple of BTL places too. If not then sorry for that.

No Worries.

The BTL meme is spread by the trolls. The reality is that we had an aging relative have a change in circumstances, and allowed them to live in our first house rent free. We'd paid off the mortgage, so our costs to do so are minimal. We bought a second for ourselves to live in.

Double digit YoY HPI would be pretty amazing in a recession.

Just look at the graphs. It's pretty much locked in. If we get a significant bounce early on this year, 15%+ isn't out of the question.

I am a secular bear on house prices due to the UK's demographics. In about 10 years time there will be a lot of people looking to retire with inadequate pensions. They'll be big sellers of their biggest asset I suspect. Time will tell if I'm right or not and I do think the UK should stop be so bloody precious about the coutryside and build some houses for people to live in.

10 years is a long time to wait for cheaper houses, and given increasing pension ages and increasing life expectancy, I rather think it will be longer than that before the boomers sell up. The current projections show an additional 250,000 households per year every year until 2030. And prices will at least double in real terms before then, likely triple in nominal terms.

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/tom-stevenson/7003135/Interest-rates-the-lower-the-better.html

Low rates for years is by far the most probable outcome.

Worth noting that the author, a professional investment commentator for Fidelity and The Telegraph, has put his money where his mouth is and just taken out a tracker mortgage.
:beer:

To quote.

"
:rotfl:

It's a blog

Hardly reputable journalism."

You need to be more consistent old chap. Either blogs/opinion pieces are valid or they are not and it should not depend on which side of the fence you sit.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Either blogs/opinion pieces are valid or they are not and it should not depend on which side of the fence you sit.

You should probably learn the difference between being published in The Telegraph, and self publishing a blog on your own little IFA company website.

It's got nothing to do with which side of the fence, but everything to do with the credibility of the author. Sorry, but an HPC-er self publishing is a joke.

Generali

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

To quote.

"
:rotfl:

It's a blog

Hardly reputable journalism."

You need to be more consistent old chap. Either blogs/opinion pieces are valid or they are not and it should not depend on which side of the fence you sit.

To be fair to HAMISH_MCTAVISH, we are almost all guilty of selectivly quoting to back up our arguments. I certainly am.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

To be fair to HAMISH_MCTAVISH, we are almost all guilty of selectivly quoting to back up our arguments. I certainly am.

True enough. People take the side of the argument they believe to be most likely, and present it. Others take the opposite view, and hey presto, you have debate.

On the other hand, it helps if the sources you pick are a bit more credible than an hpc-er self publishing on his own IFA company website.;)

Pretty pictures of blue bricks do not a credible source make.....:rolleyes:

Spartacus_Mills

Generali wrote: »

To be fair to HAMISH_MCTAVISH, we are almost all guilty of selectivly quoting to back up our arguments. I certainly am.

To be fair to Hamish he is the only one who makes a big issue out of it when people the other side of the debate do it though.

Hence why I made my comment.

Yes we all do it, certainly. But then most of us recognise that and, at least, try to deconstruct the comments in the article rather than playing a cheap shot about the article and poster.

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You should probably learn the difference between being published in The Telegraph, and self publishing a blog on your own little IFA company website.

It's got nothing to do with which side of the fence, but everything to do with the credibility of the author. Sorry, but an HPC-er self publishing is a joke.

I see no difference between a blog on the Telegraph site and blog on an IFA site. Two vested interests plugging their own point of view. How it is delivered is immaterial or do you simply regurgitate anything you are spoon fed in the popular press.

The Telegraph is well known for shilling for property and financial companies. Many of its articles in its pages are mere sales puffs for these companies.

I will read the article and judge it on the points it makes rather than sticking my fingers in my ears and shouting "na na na na na" simply because I don't like the person who posted it or site it is on.

carolt

This thread is rather amusing given today's news on inflation - let alone next month's figures... :eek:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

carolt wrote: »

This thread is rather amusing given today's news on inflation - let alone next month's figures... :eek:

Only if you suppose that the bank will raise rates to combat an expected and predicted temporary spike.