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UK At 80% Risk Of Rating Downgrade On Current Debt Plan:PIMCO
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Stupid pointless soundbites..... doncha just luv it !!!!Well Sterling went UP in value since the £200 Billion of QE was started, so I am sure you must be right.
Sterling went UP because it was oversold at the start of the year, people beleived the UK was in dire straits. Some of that negativity has gone and hence why sterling has appreciated.
You really think the governement can issue more QE without much impact on sterling ?
Forumonics.............doncha just luv it !!!!!!! :rolleyes:0 -
Like I said..."I'm sure you must be right"
As a Forumonicist I'm sure you are in daily contact with someone working for one of the GEMM's, so you will know everything that could be known about the current state of the Gilt market.
You'll also be chatting to traders in the FX markets and getting a real feel about what's happening.
A Forumonicist is always 100% correct.The BoE are not going to allow rates to go up too high, they will impliment some policy
Yes we don't want 'soundbites'..........we need in depth anaylsis................."some policy" hits the nail right on the head !!!!'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
Like I said..."I'm sure you must be right"
As a Forumonicist I'm sure you are in daily contact with someone working for one of the GEMM's, so you will know everything that could be known about the current state of the Gilt market.
Nope, just using a what I think is a logical thought process.
You'll also be chatting to traders in the FX markets and getting a real feel about what's happening.
Nope, have better things to do.
A Forumonicist is always 100% correct.
Possibly so, or not.
Yes we don't want 'soundbites'..........we need in depth anaylsis................."some policy" hits the nail right on the head !!!!
QE was "some policy" before it was implimented.
I don't really disagree with you have written, just think your a nob for how you come across . Everyone is entitled to their view without abuse. If you can't contribute constructively then don't bother unless it makes you feel better as a person and you feel you have to.0 -
Commentary on yesterday's Gilt Auction from a rather infuriated Marc Ostwald of Monument Securities:
via FT AlphavilleRarely in my years covering Gilts have I seen so much ill-informed opinion expressed in the media about the success of yesterday’s 2.75% 2015 auction. So much of the comment focuses on how it flew in the face of the negative Gilt views expressed by the likes of PIMCO, BlackRock and Standard Life, to mention but a few.
The truth about the demand was as we suggested yesterday:
a) bank capital balance sheet demand
b) it’s a sub-par 5-year bond, with a yield of 3.0%, it was very cheap to its peer group, and given the steepness at the front of the curve, it is THE ideal Gilt for the old principle of using ultra low short-term rates and a steep curve to re-capitalize the banking sector in times of financial sector distress. Oh and by the way it’s also the new 5-yr benchmark (doh!)
c) the added bonus for GEMMs of being able to offload a large amount of the stock that they would have had to buy from end investors and specs switching into the 2.755 2015 was more than well evidenced by the 3.92X cover ratio at the afternoon 3-10 yr QE auction, where all but £42 Mln of the £1.7 Bln that the BoE bought was in the stocks immediately surrounding (2013-2015) the auction stock.
d) Other than for their ultra short funds, this is not really an area that commercial fund managers are buyers of, while most pension fund managers have duration index targets of 15yrs plus, so this was not one for them either.
e) Take a look at the attached Gilt deviations sheet, and the the way that the Gilt curve between 5 and 50 years steepened by 6 bps yesterday, and now tell me whether these long term fund managers are enthusiastic about long-dated Gilt yields – I think NOT!"The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.0 -
stueyhants wrote: »I don't really disagree with you have written, just think your a nob for how you come across . Everyone is entitled to their view without abuse. If you can't contribute constructively then don't bother unless it makes you feel better as a person and you feel you have to.
Afraid you're onto a loser there stuey.
Purch is one of the more knowledgeable/cynical/realistic/pragmatic and also funnier members of the board.
Above all else, purch isn't a nob.It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.0 -
lemonjelly wrote: »Afraid you're onto a loser there stuey.
Purch is one of the more knowledgeable/cynical/realistic/pragmatic and also funnier members of the board.
Above all else, purch isn't a nob.
Perhaps nob was a too strong a word. It's just anoying when people have to resort to cheap soundbites. No one on this board can claim to know everything so when people express a view it should be read with the same respect the post was made with.0 -
Sorry, going off the basis that it was an asset, not a liability.
If its US denonimated bad debt then the banks will already make accounting provisions for potential losses. So if Sterling was fall against the dollar , and the bad debts crystallised. The actual booked loss in the banks profit and loss would result in a profit.
This is the direction I was coming from.0 -
'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
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I'm not talking exotics
'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0
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