House prices - "five years to recover"

Swans1912

I have a feeling that the home owners of today are far more aware of the true value of being 'cash rich' rather than just on paper. Which also means that in 5 years time more homeowners will have more money and will be able to truly afford a bigger more expensive home if they require one. House prices will go up, dramatically again, but with solid foundations.

Mr.Brown_4

iKennett wrote: »

I have a feeling that the home owners of today are far more aware of the true value of being 'cash rich' rather than just on paper. Which also means that in 5 years time more homeowners will have more money and will be able to truly afford a bigger more expensive home if they require one. House prices will go up, dramatically again, but with solid foundations.

Sorry mate, but you are absolutely wrong on that point. If prices rise, then the gap between the rungs becomes bigger. Price rises only benefit those at the very top, looking to downsize.

chucky

Mr.Brown wrote: »

Sorry mate, but you are absolutely wrong on that point. If prices rise, then the gap between the rungs becomes bigger. Price rises only benefit those at the very top, looking to downsize.

actually he's not wrong - it depends what type of property you're selling and what type of property and area that you're upsizing to. HPI benefits many more people that are looking to move.

Mr.Brown_4

chucky wrote: »

actually he's not wrong - it depends what type of property you're selling and what type of property and area that you're upsizing to. HPI benefits many more people that are looking to move.

No it doesn't. You are talking absolute nonsense. Try thinking about it.

If you are buying a first property it is better if it is cheaper.
If you are moving up the ladder it is better if it is cheaper.

I don't mind you nit picking every other little detail, hey it's what you do, but you really have to understand the basics first.

Oh and Pickles - I see you are still around. Carry on thanking, its nice to know you are getting my message endlessly. Carry on reading and learning - bit too late for you though isn't it? Should have realised your limitations mate.

nearlynew

But it's all about "equity" Mr.Brown


People don't have money any more, they have "equity"

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Arch-Angel wrote: »

The message seems to be "house prices will recover, but it's not business as usual just yet" - my opinion counts for little, but this does feel like the best indicator of where prices are going.

It totally depends where you live.

Aberdeen rose 13% this year from the trough in spring. It seems likely we will cross previous peak prices in 2010, as we are close now.

All of the major commentators forecasts for the crash to date have been more pessimistic than the subsequent reality has proven to be, and the range quoted in the article is from 2012 to 2016.

I think it will be 2012 before national averages return to peak. That would be 5 years after the crash started. Which is not particularly unusual, based on the average of the previous 3 crashes.

chucky

Mr.Brown wrote: »

No it doesn't. You are talking absolute nonsense. Try thinking about it.

how about giving up thinking what the cult wants you to think :rolleyes:

Mr.Brown wrote: »

If you are buying a first property it is better if it is cheaper.
If you are moving up the ladder it is better if it is cheaper.

this is going to be a bit tough for your brain to process but try and understand it before you start replying to the post... :rolleyes:

England & Wales HPI for all property types...

Terraced property has done very well out of HPI compared to Flats and Semi-Detached property... so up-sizing to a semi-detached from a terraced property shows a benefit from HPI. moving from a Flat to a terraced wll not benefited as well from HPI. so there are large numbers of people who benefit from HPI as well as others that don't beneift from HPI...


so mewbie if you want to make posts full of innacurate soundbites feel free

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

how about giving up thinking what the cult wants you to think :rolleyes:


this is going to be a bit tough for your brain to process but try and understand it before you start replying to the post... :rolleyes:

England & Wales HPI for all property types...

Terraced property has done very well out of HPI compared to Flats and Semi-Detached property... so up-sizing to a semi-detached from a terraced property shows a benefit from HPI. moving from a Flat to a terraced wll not benefited as well from HPI. so there are large numbers of people who benefit from HPI as well as others that don't beneift from HPI...


so mewbie if you want to make posts full of innacurate soundbites feel free

Not sure these figures always tell the full story though. There would have been alot more newbuild terrace properties than Semi's etc and new builds cost would be a lot more. I wonder how much of the any of these figures actually relate to HPI based on like for like property?

In my area Terrace properties did not really fall as fast as other types but they have also not really seen and up turn since prices have started to rise again. Semi and Detached have though as these are the most in demand.

I also suspect that the vast majority looking to upsize do not benefit from HPI. They probably won't beneift for a crash either though.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

Not sure these figures always tell the full story though. There would have been alot more newbuild terrace properties than Semi's etc and new builds cost would be a lot more. I wonder how much of the any of these figures actually relate to HPI based on like for like property?

it doesn't matter - you don't have an infinite supply of property in a local area.
the demand and supply of the local area will determine the price - which is shown in the graph.

Emy1501 wrote: »

In my area Terrace properties did not really fall as fast as other types but they have also not really seen and up turn since prices have started to rise again. Semi and Detached have though as these are the most in demand.

there's an example of what i've said - thank you.

Emy1501 wrote: »

I also suspect that the vast majority looking to upsize do not benefit from HPI. They probably won't beneift for a crash either though.

but that's the point, many (not the majority) upsizers will benefit from HPI though- that's what i'm saying.

it's just that mewbie likes a soundbite when he says that "no home owner will benefit from HPI" - that's is total rollox

Mr.Brown_4

chucky wrote: »

Terraced property has done very well out of HPI compared to Flats and Semi-Detached property... so up-sizing to a semi-detached from a terraced property shows a benefit from HPI. moving from a Flat to a terraced wll not benefited as well from HPI. so there are large numbers of people who benefit from HPI as well as others that don't beneift from HPI...

Let's try to keep things very simple.

Here are two examples for you.

Moving up the ladder...
Buy 100k property. Better property is 200k, but can't afford that yet.
With 0% HPI the gap remains the same.
With 10% HPI you have a 100k property now worth 110k and the 200k property is now worth 220k. The difference is 10k more.

Therefore you are 10k WORSE off through HPI.

FTB...
Wanted to buy a 100k property.
0% HPI - one day I can.
10% HPI - property becomes 10k more expensive.

Therefore you are 10k WORSE off through HPI.