HPI predictions for 2010

Graham_Devon

boomerangs wrote: »

Who are you trying to kid? You are hamish you plank.

Certainly both overexciteable and certainly both have their own bandwidth usage monitors with the use of rolling head, jumping, clapping and beer icons.

But not too sure they are the same person!

[Deleted User]

No real movement: +/- 2%

Well I voted for no real movement. I think that's most likely as I suspect a lot of people will be sitting tight waiting for the outcome of the election.

But it could well be 3-8%. Some people have to move after all and if they push prices up a little it will give others confidence. Also a lot of people that were holding off in the hope of prices crashing will start getting nervous as they see prices creep up. Them coming back into the market could help things along nicely.

I would have thought there might be a nice little boost in the new year. Because in the current climate people have been selling prior to looking for a new home quite a few will surely have sold before Christmas. They'll be sitting with cash in hand waiting for houses to start coming on the market in the spring.

I've got two houses at the moment - one I'm putting on the market in the spring. It's in an area that sells easily and it was bought years ago for less than half what it's worth now. But obviously I'm hoping for the best possible price so a nice little boost in the spring would be perfect for me!

But solicitor/estate agents in the area are all predicting no significant change. A very slight trickle upwards.

mbga9pgf

-3 to -10%

it was bought years ago for less than half what it's worth now

It aint worth C*ck all till you have sold it.

nollag2006

8-15%

mbga9pgf wrote: »

It aint worth C*ck all till you have sold it.

Really classy - and completely untrue.

:cool:

You can't unlock the value until the point of sale (or remortgage), but the asset still has an underlying value

mbga9pgf

-3 to -10%

So, if your christmas tree catches fire tonight and burns down your house, what is its intrinsic value tmmrw then smart !!!!?

JonnyBravo

-3 to -10%

mbga9pgf wrote: »

So, if your christmas tree catches fire tonight and burns down your house, what is its intrinsic value tmmrw then smart !!!!?

Eh?

What if it doesn't?

You think nothing has "worth" unless it's converted to cash?

nollag2006

8-15%

Again another well considered and thoughtful response from a beaten bear.

My properties are all well insured against such an act, so that's not a consideration

[Deleted User]

No real movement: +/- 2%

I'm not sure whether that would be a good or a bad thing.

The rebuild value of the house is lower than the market value. But even if it were higher I very much doubt that you could just pocket the money and walk.

My guess is that you'd have to rebuild the house (using insurance money) and then sell it. But even so, when you paid less than half the current market value for something you can afford for prices to drop quite a bit before you actually loose out.

But as I said, it's always nice if you can get the best possible price

[Deleted User]

No real movement: +/- 2%

Actually, sorry to continue along this off-topic tangent. But it's brought to mind something that I was a little puzzled about.

The house I'm selling is a 3 bedroomed box on a postage stamp plot in a 'posh' area of the city. It's market value is £200k and the rebuild value for insurance is only £150k (according to the surveyor).

The house i'm living in is a large, 4 bedroomed bungalow on a 1/3 acre plot in a little villiage in the country where houses don't sell well and prices are low. It's market value is also £200k but the rebuild value is £240k. This higher rebuild value makes sense as it's a much bigger, better house.

Now obviously a house is worth whatever people will pay for it. So if you live in a 1 room box costing a few grand to build in a desireable part of London that could well cost you 1 million. Whereas a huge estate in the sticks could cost millions to build but be worth relatively little. I'm just wondering how insurance companies work. Does it cost significantly less to insure a tiny flat worth a million in London than it costs to insure a 4 bedroomed bungalow worth a couple of hundred grand in the sticks?

Strangely, my little house in the city with the lower rebuild cost is significantly more expensive to insure than the big house with the high rebuild cost in the country

mbga9pgf

-3 to -10%

So, are you insured against the effect of rocketting tax, increased unemployment, the effect of lapsed government schemes and a potential Gilt strike with increased finance costs as well then? As I said, it aint worth the valuation until someone pays for it. Refer to sellers putting up for sale the week before Northern Rock collapsed for a reference.