MSE News: Nationwide: strong house price growth in January

chucky

stueyhants wrote: »

I think what this post says to me is we shouldn't try and put all people in to either the bull or bear narrow 'box'. Not all bulls want double digit HPI, like not all bears want 50% falls.

that was exactly my point

i've never celebrated monthly increases - the reason i've probably been classed as a bull is because i've never contested the numbers as being genuine and have been realistic to what they mean to the housing market.

what this monthly increase means is that it's another bit of momentum in the trend that looks to be getting stronger and stronger - it's going to need something equally as strong or a number of smaller issues to break it down for it to be negative numbers again.

Lotus-eater

Harry_Powell wrote: »

IMO, the interesting discussion lies in whether we think the artificial stimulus will act as a catalyst or whether it's a temporary boost. For my part, the jury is still out on this one.

I wouldn't like to gamble my future on it, hence why I bought my first house last year.

It's not just the artificial stimulus though, it's the shortage of new built housing and lots of other things I can't think up off the top of my head to try to look intelligent. All shoved into a melting pot, which is why no one ever gets it right.

I don't need to gamble on it, but I'm still interested.

stueyhants

Harry_Powell wrote: »

IMO, the interesting discussion lies in whether we think the artificial stimulus will act as a catalyst or whether it's a temporary boost. For my part, the jury is still out on this one.

I wouldn't like to gamble my future on it, hence why I bought my first house last year.

For the stimulus to act as a catalyst it would need to be used to create real sustained demand or invest in something productive. The stimulus to date has pulled forward demand for cars which is going to drop when the scrappage scheme ends. Allowed us to by tat from overseas (VAT decrease).

If the stimulus was used to build 100,000 new homes and 10 nuclear power plants, or invest in green technology which create jobs in industries which are suffering then I would agree it might help long term growth.

I just don't see how encouraging retail growth as the current stimulus seem to do, actually changes our long term structural inbalances.

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

not that i'm saying that it is... but could that 10% rise be a re-adjustment/re-correction of the negative over correction in 2008?

just a thought...

I personally don't think so.
We only just overcorrected the long term trend and with prices rising steadily since Feb 09, we are once again above the long term trend.
Some of us wasn't too worried as we expected a winter drop, however that has not materialised.

In my opinion prices need to lower a little, stagnate for a period or rise very slowly to get back on to that long term trend.

For this to happen houwever, I am wrongly dismissing the supply / demand theory which is ultimately causing the rise in prices.

IveSeenTheLight

Harry_Powell wrote: »

He's the Graham Devon of the Bull team.

Settle petal.
Hamish back's up his thoughts with reasoning, facts and structure.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

All good in my view. It's another month where the entire average monthly wage isn't enough to keep up with HPI.

To be fair, everyone is wrong on this one. The bulls turned "bearish" over the winter months a few months ago. There were many arguments about this very thing. So bulls and bears alike have been proven wrong by this.

To me it just doesn't make any sense, let alone sense celebrating it. Once again we are in teritory where no one average person/couple, bar those who own can keep up with the prices, no matter how sensible they are or how much they save for their deposit.

That's got trouble written all over it. But seems to me this time, people who could have been burned by falling prices have a chance to sell up and take their cash before it all falls down again.

I agree with most of your post but not the part in bold.
I know many people on their own who have been able to afford at peak.
I still know people now on their own who are in the process of buying.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that not all areas are as expensive as the South East / London.

Harry_Powell

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Settle petal.
Hamish back's up his thoughts with reasoning, facts and structure.

Graham backs up his thoughts with confusion, muddle and misdirection. Regardless of the tactic used, they both have the same outcome:

chucky wrote: »

what people aren't seeing is that Hamish has no interest in house prices rising or falling. he just likes winding people up!! people just can't see it. top man!! :T

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I agree with most of your post but not the part in bold.
I know many people on their own who have been able to afford at peak.
I still know people now on their own who are in the process of buying.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that not all areas are as expensive as the South East / London.

Yes, I know people who could afford to buy at peak.

But I did say the "average" person. The people I know, are not the average person, i.e. they are not buying their house on the back of their wages. They are buying their houses on the back of other windfalls.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yes, I know people who could afford to buy at peak.

But I did say the "average" person. The people I know, are not the average person, i.e. they are not buying their house on the back of their wages. They are buying their houses on the back of other windfalls.

Yes you said

Once again we are in teritory where no one average person/couple, bar those who own can keep up with the prices, no matter how sensible they are or how much they save for their deposit.

which is why I disagreed.

I know quite a few single and couples on the local average incomes that can afford and can keep up with the local house prices.

Not all areas in the UK are as unaffordable as you may be experiencing,

From the people I know that can afford, I do not make the assumption or statement that all therefore can afford.

doire_2

chucky wrote: »

just thought i'd give this thread a bump....

this is just another nail in the coffin of the cult HPC warriors that are out there

Yes im totally shi.tting myself here.

Pity the EA round my way are all closed. Im going to have to wait until monday afternoon now to see an EA and buy a house.

Its going to be a long weekend

Damn if i had only bought today