Housing Affordability has peaked, now decreasing

[Deleted User]

I didn't suggest people will be heading for Scotland - you made that up. Simply that people will be moving out to cheaper locations. If they can't aford to live in the more popular areas they have no choice...unless they want to rent or live on the streets - or move abroad.

It's what I did. I have my own business and work from home. I've always lived in the city and didn't really consider moving. I liked having everything close by. It was really because of our dogs that we started looking in cheaper areas - they need a huge garden and we had a postage stamp sized garden in the city. We found a fantastic bungalow in the country on a 1/3 acre plot, close to the sea. It's a little paradise and it cost 1/3 of what it would cost in the city. I was astonished at how cheap this house was - I'd have willingly paid much, much more, but houses are still dirt cheap out here. Even someone that still had to work in the city could manage the 30 minute commute down the motorway.

As I said, it was the dogs needs that led us to consider moving out of the city. But others will consider this when they can't aford the type of homes they want in the city. I know all of my friends are very tempted by what's available out here.

We're in the software business. We sell worldwide, but primarily in America. One of our products is a log monitoring solution aimed at small businesses that find the corporate solutions to be both cumbersome and expensive. We've trundled along selling single and double licenses to small busines for a few years. Then the recession came along and suddenly we started getting orders for 10,000 licenses from big organisations. They could no longer aford the expensive corporate solutions so down-graded to us. They saved a packet and we made a packet. That's what people do when they can't afford what they want - they look for something cheaper that ticks most of the boxes.

It's already happened in London - and large areas of the South East have become almost as expensive as London as a result. It's already happened around other cities too. But it seems logical to me that if house prices go too high people will move out yet further to find cheaper alternatives - yes, some will choose to go abroad.

My family are from Devon. Now that used to be dirt cheap until Londoners started seeing it as a nice alternative to London. Some really rough places around cities have become 'desireable' overnight simply because wealthy people moved in and it became trendy to live there.

nearlynew

Every one of your posts just sounds like the next chapter of your life story.

me me me

Boring.
And usually irrelevant to what is being discussed at the time.

System

nearlynew wrote: »

Boring.

Good lord you've got some nerve calling anyone else boring. You'll be calling someone a deranged nutter next.

nearlynew

Nice one muppet-boy.

One day you might find something relevant to post instead of just slagging me out and sucking McTittish's !!!!!!.

chucky

nearlynew wrote: »

Nice one muppet-boy.

One day you might find something relevant to post instead of just slagging me out and sucking McTittish's !!!!!!.

i'd go along with Joe's post, to be fair you have become quite boring recently numptynew

calm down though, you'll get yourself all in a muddle

[Deleted User]

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hmmm, I very much doubt it. In the real world, the country does not offer that many jobs, and it's a difficult place to live due to lack of ammenities.

What you have said is ok for the retired.

Yes, everyone has to live somewhere, but they also need a job to be able to pay for where they live. Therefore, thousands of people are limited to where they live due to their job, and or kids being in school, family etc.

Sorry, missed your comment last time around.

Nowadays it's the retired people that have the money (they've made a fortune on property in expensive areas) so if they move out to the sticks wouldn't that in itself push prices UP out there and DOWN in the cities? Or at least, it would stop prices from rising so rapidly in the city as some of the big-bidders will be out of the picture. You must also remember that we're reaching a point where a very large percentage of the population is retired.

I think the need to live near work is what's limited the degree to which non-retired people could move out of expensive areas in the past. But nowadays it's becoming more and more common for people to work from home.

But I'm not necesarily talking about everyone moving out to the back of beyond. For example, where I've moved to is only 30 minutes down the motorway from the city centre. In London where house prices have been rediculously high for a long time people are already thinking nothing of comutes of an hour or more. In Glasgow prices aren't so high that people have been forced out that far....yet. But if they do go higher then based upon the example of London surely that's what will happen here? And in other cities?

But of course that's less than ideal. The government won't want everyone commuting when there's a big push to keep fuel emmissions down. So..

1. People need a place to live near where they work.
2. Even well paid people can't afford property in the cities (and other popular areas)
3. Property is expensive because demand outstrips supply
4. In order to satisfy demand you need to build more houses
5. To build houses you need land
6. Demand for building land in the cities outstrips supply thus pushing prices up
7. Because of the price of land it's very difficult to build affordable housing in the cities.

There is only one solution that I see - move the jobs out to where the cheaper houses and cheaper land is. A lot of nice little country places are surrounded by greenbelt land. That can of course be built on if the rules are changed. But I would have thought that old, run down industrial areas might well benefit first.

In the area where I live there is a big push to do just that. Despite the recession, millions is being spent on regeneration. Mostly funded by government and EU. They're building nice housing, leisure facilities and buisiness parks.

I don't really see any other solution to the problem.

kabayiri

NN has a point.

I am sure that all of Scarter's life experiences are bonafide. Her postings are admirably detailed, but like all anecdotal retellings the relevance will not carry to others.

In a similar way to her, I was able to use timing (perhaps fortunate) and reasonable prices at the time to my advantage. So, good on her. We all take what opportunities are available to us.

Does her experience or mine carry to the heated London markets, where even well-rewarded workers will struggle today?

I am not so sure. London is on a different plane prices wise. If anything the actual gap between my house and the equivalent London house has widened in the last decade.

This was my point about differing prices.

[Deleted User]

Kabayiri, anecdotal retellings do actually help to get a point across. And it *seems* to work as I find people respond to posts better when you give personal examples. But those that don't find them helpful can ignore them - I'm not offended if people find my posts boring - and I don't mind in the least that they feel the need to inform me of this fact I try hard to make the point in other ways too.

However, I've obviously failed badly when it comes to you as the personal example has thrown you right off track!

Does her experience or mine carry to the heated London markets, where even well-rewarded workers will struggle today?

I am not so sure. London is on a different plane prices wise. If anything the actual gap between my house and the equivalent London house has widened in the last decade.

London is one small part of the UK. In most parts of the country housing is far more affordable, but it's heading the same way as london. What I'm suggesting is that we'll start to see the same pattern in the rest of the country as we've seen in London already. People moving further and further afield to get cheap housing and as a result prices are pushed up in those areas too. And of course, this will go some way to keep prices down a little in the city - that bit less competition.

But what about London. As you say, prices are silly. There isn't enough property to go around. There's nowhere left to move out to and still be in commuter distance. Land prices are so high that it's not possible to build property that's cheap enough.

Something has to give. And as I said, the only solution I see is for a big push to move jobs away from London so that people can work in the areas where they can buy cheaper property.

How else would you solve the problem? Dropping house prices in the city won't help because the real problem is that there aren't enough houses to go around.

kabayiri

Deleted_User wrote: »

How else would you solve the problem? Dropping house prices in the city won't help because the real problem is that there aren't enough houses to go around.

Fwiw, I don't mind hearing personal experience. If it's not for someone, they can always skip the post.

We won't solve the problem. A lot of UK wealth emanates from the English capital. It won't change anytime soon. I think we can alleviate the issue through social engineering; moving lower paid work out to the provinces to reduce demand, as you suggest.

I'd like to see some solidity, support, and kudos given to renters too. Having a relatively mobile chunk of the workforce is a real positive when it comes to changing work patterns.

But do I have a solution for someone priced out of the market right now? I'm afraid not.

[Deleted User]

Yes, I agree regarding rented accomodation.

This is interesting:

But do I have a solution for someone priced out of the market right now? I'm afraid not.

You are of course correct. Any solutions (such as mass house building projects and moving work out to cheaper areas) is some time away. That doesn't help people that have work in the cities but can't afford housing.

It's kind of a reversal of the situation two or three decades ago. Do you remember the coal mines closing down and people from industrial areas complaining that they didn't have jobs. Was it Norman Tebbit that told them to "Get on their bikes" - and move to the areas where work was available.

Now it seems they're going to have to get back on those bikes to find affordable housing.