Support grows for 70% crash

[Deleted User]

carolt wrote: »

Funny that, my parents bought in the 50's too. Not as posh as your parents, of course - my dad was only a manual worker.

But they didn't have to live in a rented room at all - they'd actually bothered saving a deposit before marrying. They got a 2.5 or 3 X times multiple (of the single salary) mortgage that enabled them to buy a 3 bed semi in a very nice north London Zone 3 suburb. Price in 2007 - approx 500K.

Your parents must have been really rubbish with money. Or have seriously annoyed their bank manager.

My parents certainly found it much easier to buy than their children. None of whom, on far, far better paid jobs, could have afforded an equivalent purchase as FTBs.

Sorry to reply twice, but you've got me a little curious as to why my parents struggled so much to buy a house.

They bought their first house in Morden, Surrey. It was a 3 bedroomed terraced house. I think I remember them saying it cost them £2000. And this would fit with what a Google search through up about house prices back then:

The average house price in the UK in 1950 was £1.9k
http://www.wwwk.co.uk/culture/housing/index.htm

My dad was a Clerical Officer in the Civil Service. So was my mum, but once married I think my mum had to be demoted to Clerical Assistant as married women weren't allowed to be CO's. I don't know about the 50's but when I spent a short time in the Civil Service in the 80's the CA / CO wage was below average wage. Certainly a respectable profession - the start of a decent career. But I don't know if it paid an average wage.

Now, according to this:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/pensions/article.html?in_article_id=427290&in_page_id=6

The average wage in the 50's would have been about £350 per anum.

So (assuming these figures are correct, and I accept they may well not be) the average house price in the UK was five and a half times the average annual wage in the UK.

Add to that the fact that many married women stopped working and even if they did work their salary wasn't taken into account when it came to getting a mortgage.

My mum and dad loved to tell me how lucky I was to get a mortgage of thee times my salary back in the 80's. I'm fairly sure that my dad was only able to get 1.5 times his salary. Maybe it was 2 times. But not more than that. But regardless, back then the average priced house was out of reach of people earning the average salary - and certainly out of reach of anyone earning less than average salary.

These figures do tie up with the stories my mum and dad told me. And the fact that far fewer people owned their own homes back then makes me tend to believe them. Presumably home ownership has increased over the years because it's become possible for more people?

Graham_Devon

Scarter, I'm curious....

Your not by any chance, from Scotland are you!?

Sorry, you just sound very VERY much like our scottish members!!

chucky

julieq wrote: »

It's a dumb question really, because it's presenting a completely false set of alternatives.

that's why i let Graham answer it :rolleyes:

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Cus reposessions will force prices down.

People priced out will force prices up in the long run.

Chucky didn't want to say it, so I thought I may aswell, though I fear I will be missing the point....the point that won't be explained.

why would anyone want people reposessed??

forget being a bull or bear and property values or whatever you wish for - why would you want people to be thrown out of their homes and want repossessions to happen causing pain to people.

people like numpty new and Graham are hoping they happen so they then can afford a decent house that they so crave for.

in the case of numpty new another house he can add to his portofolio of properties.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

that's why i let Graham answer it :rolleyes:


why would anyone want people reposessed??

forget being a bull or bear and property values or whatever you wish for - why would you want people to be thrown out of their homes and want repossessions to happen causing pain to people.

people like numpty new and Graham are hoping they happen so they then can afford a decent house that they so crave for.

in the case of numpty new another house he can add to his portofolio of properties.

Theres not much difference between wanting people priced out and wanting people reposessed.

Both sets of people can't afford property. You can add as much flounce and insults as you like, it doesnt' really make what you are saying stand.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Theres not much difference between wanting people priced out and wanting people reposessed.

Both sets of people can't afford property. You can add as much flounce and insults as you like, it doesnt' really make what you are saying stand.

again you're making things up or you didn't understand... i'm sure you've never seen a post from anyone (apart from Hamish) saying they wanted property to increase in value... have you??

lol - but at least you've got the new version of Reweird on your side
The Following User Says Thank You to Graham_Devon For This Useful Post: Show me >> Mr.Brown (Today)

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

again you're making things up or you didn't understand... i'm sure you've never seen a post from anyone (apart from Hamish) saying they wanted property to increase in value... have you??

I don't have to read "I want prices to increase" to fathom out who want prices to increase. A bit of initiative suffices.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I don't have to read "I want prices to increase" to fathom out who want prices to increase. A bit of initiative suffices.

so you're not reading their posts but imagining what you think that they're actually thinking they're posting. no wonder people laugh at you for not having a clue. :eek:

Mr.Brown_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I don't have to read "I want prices to increase" to fathom out who want prices to increase. A bit of initiative suffices.

I can understand the argument over the future direction of anything - including the dreaded house price topic. But the misdirection of topics and endless nit picking is why I find the Ignore feature so useful. It's a kind of freedom.

chucky

Mr.Brown wrote: »

I can understand the argument over the future direction of anything - including the dreaded house price topic. But the misdirection of topics and endless nit picking is why I find the Ignore feature so useful. It's a kind of freedom.

i wouldn't worry Mewbie - you'll probably be PPR'd by your 200th post on your new user name when you start getting all angry and abusive again :eek:

Gorgeous_George

macaque wrote: »

You have the wrong end of the stick here Gorgeous...

... Where I start to scratch my head however is when I see people buying new houses whilst hanging onto their old ones. Perhaps this is why Estate Agents no longer keep paper knives on their desks.

If your answer to a contented life is to own your own home, you should buy without hesitation. If however you are heavily leveraged in property for speculative reasons, my advice would be to think again. You can monitor short trends and convince yourself that a 6 month blip is a hold or a buy signal but you are only kidding yourself and fellow travellers. The bottom line is that property in the UK is far more than people will be prepared to pay in 15 years time. We are facing what is likely to be a very long and savage bear market in property (probably worse than Japan).

I can't say that I disagree with much of what you are saying. However, I own one BTL that cost less than £20K (I could buy another - slightly smaller one - for ~£50K even today). Rental income is over £5K. Even buying at £50K today would provide a reasonable income with £5K rent per annum.

House prices are too high. The bubble has a small hole while good old Gordon blows as hard as he can to keep it inflated. Average wages could suggest that prices will fall (I think 70% is possible... in cloud cuckoo land). This can be tempered, in part at least, by the fortunate generation of children inheriting property as the home-owning-oldies (a new acronym - the HOO) die off. This generation will have much larger deposits available to them to keep the pyramid building programme up and running.

If you have the power of your convictions, put your money where your mouth is (or typing finger(s)) and this time next year, you'll be a millionaire Rodders.

I'd LOVE to see property prices fall by 70% but I'm not a member of the 70% club.

GG