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Rightmove December, down as expected.
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
http://www.inthenews.co.uk/news/property/asking-prices-fall-for-third-straight-month-$1346657.htmProperty asking prices have fallen for the third consecutive month according to the latest house price index. The fall comes despite there being the fewest properties on the market for 21 months.
The Rightmove house price index for December shows a fall of 2.2 per cent, on average £4,977, in asking prices this month. This follows a fall of 1.6 per cent seen in November. The winter quarter decrease has been put down to the motivation of winter sellers' outweighing the comparative lack of choice faced by potential buyers.
Experts predict a change in this trend in the spring of 2010 when heightened activity is expected is send property prices back up. This upturn is though thought to be only temporary with prices forecast to dip after a general election.
Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said: "Those contemplating selling should spend some of the festive break researching their local market before seeking professional opinion very soon after the new year. Time may well be of the essence as the election is likely to be a party pooper."
He added: "2009 turned out to be a good time to trade up, and we forecast the positive mood will continue into 2010 until the post-election hangover kicks in."
The effect of the pre- and post-election rise and fall in house prices means that 2010 is forecast to see a standstill in the national average of asking prices.
The predicted fall in prices after a general election are due to less forbearance expected to be shown by lenders to those with accumulating arrears which could result in an increase of forced sales.
It will be interesting to see how much of this gets translated through to actual sold prices. So far, there has been little to no impact at all, which is the danger of compiling an asking price index to begin with.
Perhaps a useful indicator of sentiment though, as people reduce asking prices to generate interest and try to move stock before the winter slow season kicks in properly.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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Straws. Clutch.
2.2% is huge hamish and you know it...
I said things would get gradually worse this winter, but this time, they wont pick up. Why do you think that Brown is contemplating a March election? He thought he could hold on till summer but the stitching is already coming apart. He wants to bail, thinking they will hold the best chance of a hung parliament at this stage.
Batten down those hatches folks, 3 months from now it will be crash back on...
Anyone else notice a huge flood of property coming onto rightmove at the moment? Its crazy.
Double Dip tastic!
Time on Market, Wiltshire.
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2.2% is huge hamish and you know it...
:rotfl:
Oh it would be huge, if it was SOLD prices..... But asking prices are meaningless other than as a very rough guide to season or sentiment.
Prices are forecast to be flat overall for 2010, up for the spring bounce, down post election, followed by strong rises from 2011 onwards.
Epic Fail. You really must try harder.....;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Time on Market, Wiltshire.
Versus asking prices, Wiltshire......
And actual sold prices in Wiltshire..... Note the large discrepancies between asking prices and actual sold prices.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Yeah, sold prices are significantly lower, lag, but still follow the trend Hamish you straw clutcher you! What does sold price do at the rhs of that chart hamish, for all properties other than detached?0
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Nice to see some positive news for change, 3 straight months of lowered asking prices has to be good news after the ramping/spin/bollox etc.. that we have seen for most of the year.
The finger is still in the dam and holding back the pressure, but for how long now I wonder. Public sector annihilation, higher taxes, unemployment, stagflation will squeeze the nations income further as everything goes up, except wages.
It's been a bubble on a bubble, but ya canna deny the laws economics, I expect a Fan/Turd interaction of considerable proportions during 2010/11, after all, talk can only do so much, and I reckon it's just about done all it can.0 -
Could you plot the bottom graph over the same time period please Hamish, as it will allow a more meaningful comparison.0
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Rightmove provides quite an interesting index.
The prices are only for new to market (ie without any reduction) so it's is a great proxy for market expectation. People beleive property is going down in value.0 -
If I were putting my house for sale now I would be asking less than in the sprng/summer/autumn as I would expect very few to be looking - it is where expectations are in the New Year when people start to think about moving that matters. I still think the govt attempts to hold up the economy until after the election will be enough to sustain the market in the spring.
Not so confident after that tho I'm afraid.I think....0 -
Rightmove provides quite an interesting index.
The prices are only for new to market (ie without any reduction) so it's is a great proxy for market expectation. People beleive property is going down in value.
Perhaps... But throughout the crash we had frequent occasions of asking prices rising when sold prices were declining, and asking prices declining when sold prices were rising.
Not to mention in Rightmoves latest survey, 54% of people expect prices to be higher in a year, versus just 30% last winter.
So the market does appear to just be doing exactly what Rightmove say they are. Trying to clear stock at a time of year noted to be slow.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »:rotfl:
Oh it would be huge, if it was SOLD prices..... But asking prices are meaningless other than as a very rough guide to season or sentiment.
Prices are forecast to be flat overall for 2010, up for the spring bounce, down post election, followed by strong rises from 2011 onwards.
Epic Fail. You really must try harder.....;)
It would be interesting to see how many houses are up for sale and how many of those are actually selling?0
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