CEBR: UK could drop out of the world's top 10 economies by 2015

Really2

But it stands to reason any country with a higher population or more natural resources could overtake our GDP, but does that mean we are getting poorer?

I would argue others are getting richer, but then also look at GDP per capita, that is more a gauge of how "rich" the country is the overall GDP figure does not show how thin that money can be spread.

Are we going to notice anything in terms of lifstyle..... most probably not.
Will there be much difference from being 1st, 3rd, 7th, 11th, 15th in terms of lifestyle for country's that have a similar GDP per captia.......most probably not.

We have to expect emerging nations to get a larger GDP than us as they have the capacity to get bigger.

I am happy on a small island as long as our lifestyle and GDP per capita is similar to other "big nations".
I don't think anyone is predicting we are going to get poorer, just other nations will get richer.

Any economy's built on selling natural resources will end up hitting a much harder brick wall than ours in the future.

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

But it stands to reason any country with a higher population or more natural resources could overtake our GDP, but does that mean we are getting poorer?

I would argue others are getting richer, but then also look at GDP per capita, that is more a gauge of how "rich" the country is the overall GDP figure does not show how thin that money can be spread.

Are we going to notice anything in terms of lifstyle..... most probably not.
Will there be much difference from being 1st, 3rd, 7th, 11th, 15th in terms of lifestyle for country's that have a similar GDP per captia.......most probably not.

We have to expect emerging nations to get a larger GDP than us as they have the capacity to get bigger.

I am happy on a small island as long as our lifestyle and GDP per capita is similar to other "big nations".
I don't think anyone is predicting we are going to get poorer, just other nations will get richer.

I agree with what you are saying but a possible counterpoint could be the future value of the pound. If that declines quickly in value that would have a substantial impact on a trading nation such as the UK - employment levels would rise but buying power would fall.

donaldtramp

Lets hope we don't get another "socialist" government for another 30 years!!! Spent all our tax on bloating up the public sector to cover how they have massacred our manufacturing industry, lived on the never never and got us into massive debt.
When will we learn and stop voting them in?

CLAPTON

So it seems that the much more socialist model of the European countries produces richer and more productive countires than the Anglo saxon free trade model.

They have used restrictive trade processes to retain and support their industry (all against eu regulations) while we allow a free market and no longer own much of 'our' major industries (electricity, nuclear power, steel, coal, car manufacturring etc etc ); and presumably their unfunded state pensions aren't a liability either.

Best to find a 'proper' socialist party to vote for in future

Really2

Generali wrote: »

I agree with what you are saying but a possible counterpoint could be the future value of the pound. If that declines quickly in value that would have a substantial impact on a trading nation such as the UK - employment levels would rise but buying power would fall.

I think if it looked like the £ was going to be weak for ever we would skip straight in to the euro. (mind you looks like Greece, Ireland and italy could drag that down a bit after the last 24H)

But even a weak £ would mean companies clambering to get in to the UK as a production base thus boosting GDP, then over time boosting the £ again. This would all be to the detriment of another manufacturing European nation.

I think the big nations "except Germany" will act like a merry go round for companies looking for European bases. They will all get periods where they will have the biggest competative edge (usually that will be a weak currency and large available workforce)

You never know we could end up as a manufacturing nation again.

I suppose what I am trying to say is what you lose in one respect you gain in another.

I would say GM's decision to cut most in Germany was down to costs of employment, a weaker currency is not in essence a bad thing as long as it is not too weak.
I would prefer to call it a more competitive currency, we are not going to be slipping back that far.
I think some think 15th will be 3rd world, in fact it just means some have emerged from 3rd world, not us slipping in to it.

StevieJ

donaldtramp wrote: »

Lets hope we don't get another "socialist" government for another 30 years!!! Spent all our tax on bloating up the public sector to cover how they have massacred our manufacturing industry, lived on the never never and got us into massive debt.
When will we learn and stop voting them in?

And of course Thatcher did loads for maufacturing :rolleyes:

ruggedtoast

I dont think these GDP figures, apart from jingoistic pride, are a very useful measure for most ordinary people of where their country stands in the world.

Apparently the UK surpassedGermany in GDP per capita during the boom.

Yet actually comparing the standard of living of the two countries objectively would obviously render this comparison absurd; as wealth in the UK is obviously vastly unequal; as evidenced by our decrepit public services and areas of almost 3rd world deprivation.

stueyhants

As the world gets richer, the competion for assets is going to drive the prices up. We have just witnessed what happens when a limited supply of assets (houses) are chased by increasing credit ....i.e prices go up.

If the UK doesn't maintain it's purchasing power in the world we are going to have to settle for less goods at a more expensive price. Arguably the same as been happening to FTB and houses for years.

Ron2256

Who cares about the state of the country anyway. House prices is up and that's all what matters apparently.

mardatha

I don't see how Australia can overtake us, I read last week that they dont export anything at all !