HPC over?

ruggedtoast

Rick62 wrote: »

Well I am. The fact that you are probably right (that not many people think prices will go lower) is testamant to the economic illiteracy of 99% of the population, not to their being right.

Government printing £175 + billion (in one year), increasing taxes, falling tax revenues, unemployment, bloated overpaid civil service, bust banks, - how do you think prices can stay up? Only if the government keeps rates at 0.5% and keeps overspending by circa £200 billion a year - how long can they keep that up? Maybe till May 2010, at most.

I'm currently buying a property if I only lose £100k on it I'll be very happy.

I think you have the right attitude to become a board member of RBS.

Apparently there are some vacancies too.

ukcarper

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I think you're half right. British people have been propping up the housing market - they dont take a lot of encouragement.

For us home ownership is tied up in all sorts of other factors like self esteem, class, social standing, a sense of security. Not to mention bricks and mortar being the only kind of investment that most people understand, and renting being a bit horrid.

I dont think thats ever going to change. In fact I bet if you went back in a time machine to 1950 and offered the 2007 mortgage market indiscriminately to people then there'd have been a massive house price boom too.

However - its that availability of credit that has dried up, which has knocked the props out this time. More expensive properties from wealthier people with deposits are changing hands.

Not good news for anyone holding an investment in sub-prime locales - regardless of the Haliwide stats.

There was a big boom in the 70s in my area house prices doubled in 1972 I know I was trying to buy one. inflation very high but no where near 100% tight lending in place the property market is very strange

ruggedtoast

My in laws seem convinced that their house is worth about £250,000. They've said this repeatedly and arent bothered about their retirement because the house will pay for it.

The one next door to them sold last year for £175,000.

The odd thing is I think they know this but have blanked it out or just dont want to believe it.

Erk!

ukcarper

What does that say about them I thought my house was worth about £250k next door but one just sold for £277k

Really2

Rick62 wrote: »

I'm currently buying a property if I only lose £100k on it I'll be very happy.

You stick to your guns 100% certain falls will go bellow Feb 09 so you buy now and you are happy to lose £100K.:eek:

Now what did you say.

Rick62 wrote: »

is testamant to the economic illiteracy of 99% of the population, not to their being right.

OK, I learnt a good lesson in economic literacy from the above.

(PS by most don't predict houses will fall below Feb 09 levels I was talking about economists.)

lemonjelly

Couple of questions, rather than a definitive answer from me....

Given the fact that the thread is called crash over, & posters on here generally agree that there is no horrendous catastrophe occurring in our economy, does this therefore mean that they fully support the government/Browns decision making, actions etc in order to stabilize the economy? Effectively, have Labour done a good job managing the downturn?

I do feel that there are still risks in the housing market. Repossessions are not happening, and (partly due to the nature of my work) I am aware of situations where lenders would/should have repossessed, but for a variety of reasons haven't.

Plans like the mortgage rescue scheme may well be being used as a stalling tactic - my neighbour has definitely done this, & arrears have increased by a further £5k. The lender has an eviction order, but was advised by the courts to hold, pending the outcome of the mortgage rescue scheme. That is, I believe, about to fail, & I anticipate the eviction will be enforced.

We're also in december. No district judge will grant evictions to take place this month. An order may be granted to a LL/lender, however, the eviction won't occur until january onwards.

Despite QE, lending is no where near returning to what it was, & imo lending to businesses should come before lending to people.

The general election is going to be paramount. It is possible people will be holding off purchasing through dec/jan/feb/mar/apr to see who gets in, & how that'll affect them.

Businesses are hopeful christmas shopping will improve their balance sheets. I'm not convinced it will, & fear that a bad christmas on the high street, plus poor sales early next year could make things more difficult for a lot of people.

It is highly likely that IR's will start to rise. Not sure when, but I feel it is unlikely that they will remain where they are for 10 years a la Japan.

Jury is still out for me, but I am worried.

Jonbvn

lemonjelly wrote: »

Jury is still out for me, but I am worried.

That about defines my position. It feels like most things are marking time, waiting for something important to happen.

Dan:_4

neas wrote: »

Hpc cancelled!

nembot wrote: »

I'm hardly hardcore and I know it's not over, best of luck convincing people it is, you'll need it!

doire wrote: »

All the Bulls backing each other up. Did you all pm each other to arrange this thread? Just need Hamish to jump in now

orangefender

lemonjelly wrote: »

Couple of questions, rather than a definitive answer from me....

Given the fact that the thread is called crash over, & posters on here generally agree that there is no horrendous catastrophe occurring in our economy, does this therefore mean that they fully support the government/Browns decision making, actions etc in order to stabilize the economy? Effectively, have Labour done a good job managing the downturn?

I do feel that there are still risks in the housing market. Repossessions are not happening, and (partly due to the nature of my work) I am aware of situations where lenders would/should have repossessed, but for a variety of reasons haven't.

Plans like the mortgage rescue scheme may well be being used as a stalling tactic - my neighbour has definitely done this, & arrears have increased by a further £5k. The lender has an eviction order, but was advised by the courts to hold, pending the outcome of the mortgage rescue scheme. That is, I believe, about to fail, & I anticipate the eviction will be enforced.

We're also in december. No district judge will grant evictions to take place this month. An order may be granted to a LL/lender, however, the eviction won't occur until january onwards.

Despite QE, lending is no where near returning to what it was, & imo lending to businesses should come before lending to people.

The general election is going to be paramount. It is possible people will be holding off purchasing through dec/jan/feb/mar/apr to see who gets in, & how that'll affect them.

Businesses are hopeful christmas shopping will improve their balance sheets. I'm not convinced it will, & fear that a bad christmas on the high street, plus poor sales early next year could make things more difficult for a lot of people.

It is highly likely that IR's will start to rise. Not sure when, but I feel it is unlikely that they will remain where they are for 10 years a la Japan.

Jury is still out for me, but I am worried.

The only credible post I've read on here in ages.

Johnny_Doe

I wouldn't mind hprices going up if I didn't have to pay the stupid Gvt 3% stamp duty every time I move. And houses around here I'm in the market for between 250k and 300k don't really warrant the tax (not like the old days)!.. Moving up the housing ladder is an expensive business (it's not just FTB'ers affected). Raise the 3% threshold to 300k! or maybe more