the answer to the pension crisis...

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

then it seems you would have had to have been lucky with your locale rather than your timing imo

It's both, which makes it hard to calculate with any certainty ahead of the event.
Thus why it is nigh on impossible to plan a succesful STR.
Sure some will benefit, but I think it will be a huge slice of luck to predict the top and the bottom.

HBOS used to have a link to prices by postcode.
It was very interesting to be able to compare specific areas against the last house price correction.
I have a copy in excel but unfortunately it does not appear that you can attach here

the_ash_and_the_oak

My grandparents didnt pick the top (too early) or the bottom (didnt rebuy) but their STR has been v successful imo

As for last time around there were some places which rebounded quite quickly but imo more areas were lower in 1994 than in 1990 so you would have been unlucky by area not lucky if you had done that

either way my parents would have done well to have sold up and lived in portugal for 3 years in 89!

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

then it seems you would have had to have been lucky with your locale rather than your timing imo

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

HBOS used to have a link to prices by postcode.
It was very interesting to be able to compare specific areas against the last house price correction.
I have a copy in excel but unfortunately it does not appear that you can attach here

Here's a snapshot of the spreadsheet.
Look at Barnsley, when's the top and bottom of the market?
Would it have been worth STR'ing?

the_ash_and_the_oak

not worth living in Barnsley tbf (if you did sell in barnsley good idea to move somewhere else imo)

the_ash_and_the_oak

but in general you are correct lets pick a town each and both be right

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

My grandparents didnt pick the top (too early) or the bottom (didnt rebuy) but their STR has been v successful imo

As for last time around there were some places which rebounded quite quickly but imo more areas were lower in 1994 than in 1990 so you would have been unlucky by area not lucky if you had done that

either way my parents would have done well to have sold up and lived in portugal for 3 years in 89!

Like I said, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
STRing for me is a gambol in which there is a huge risk of failure and only a small likelyhood of actually benefitting.

the_ash_and_the_oak

tbf my grandparents didnt use hindsight when they made the decision - don't really think its been that much of a gamble - even with the timing out quite a bit its worked out v well

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

but in general you are correct lets pick a town each and both be right

I'm not disagreeing that on average, the UK was lower in 1996 than in 1990.
This means that there are many areas which STR'ing would have benefited.
I'm merely pointing out that it didn't act out in all areas

Take the latest correction, what's the chances that people sold in August 2007 and re-bought in Feb 2009?
What's the chances that their area followed the UK average?

In this latest correction, I could show an area where the Aug 2007 price was £189,521
The Feb 2009 price was £201,970.
Would an STR in that area have benefited between these dates?

The same area is down 5.61% from it's peak in Jul 2008 to current prices only a year later.
Would it be worthwhile with selling / buying costs and rent in between?
It's only £12,000 of a difference?

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm not disagreeing that on average, the UK was lower in 1996 than in 1990.
This means that there are many areas which STR'ing would have benefited.
I'm merely pointing out that it didn't act out in all areas

Take the latest correction, what's the chances that people sold in August 2007 and re-bought in Feb 2009?
What's the chances that their area followed the UK average?

In this latest correction, I could show an area where the Aug 2007 price was £189,521
The Feb 2009 price was £201,970.
Would an STR in that area have benefited between these dates?

The same area is down 5.61% from it's peak in Jul 2008 to current prices only a year later.
Would it be worthwhile with selling / buying costs and rent in between?
It's only £12,000 of a difference?

Two different instances being conflated here though imo. Was actually talking about the last time around here and how my parents were unaffected by the crash but if they had STR'd around peak and rebought 5 or 6 years later they would be in a better position now (and they wouldn't have had to have been lucky with the timing but its unlikely they would have done it because it never even crossed their mind - the idea being to show that something that doesn;'t have an effect that is visible - the effect is still there)

Then we are also conflating with a different event - the idea of STRing this time around (which my grandparents actually have done). This time round on a tight sell-rent-buy schedule the window is obviously different to last time around and you would have to be lucky this time in a way you wouldn't have had to have been last time around - tho the window for cash buyers is hardly shut imo. And the buy/sell costs likely wipe out any gain yes (tho you can't include rent payments imo surely - as either a) no mortgage interest payments involved or b) you have cash in the bank paying interest - admittedly less the last 7 months or so).

My grandparents STR nearly 5 years ago and haven't rebought and have been paying rent for 5 years but they haven't had to touch their capital to do so (particularly when they're rented abroad!) - do think STR is a lot wider than just 'lets sell this house at top of market and buy it right back at bottom' - it made sense for them to sell and rent - it hasn't made sense for them to rebuy. It may in the future it may not

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Like I said, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
STRing for me is a gambol in which there is a huge risk of failure and only a small likelyhood of actually benefitting.

Now that you have told us 43 times. I'm convinced.

Not too sure you are though, what with having to say it over and over.