HUGE 10%+ year on year gains coming up...

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You're going to need a h3ll of a crash between now and february to see YoY declines. With monthly declines of almost 4% each and every month between now and then.

What economic influences do you see impacting house prices in December, January and February that would cause such a crash rate, which would be bigger than anything seen last year in the depths of the financial crisis?

Or is your statement just more blind hpc cheerleading.....:rolleyes:

While it is true that the likelyhood of YoY house price increase is almost a certainty, I feel that 10% is unlikely.
that would require further rises over the next 3 months.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

While it is true that the likelyhood of YoY house price increase is almost a certainty, I feel that 10% is unlikely.
that would require further rises over the next 3 months.

Depends which index you use, but 10% looks likely on at least some of them within the next 6 months.

Cleaver

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

When I hear these kind of stories, I see myself standing on a cliff looking out over the ocean, on the beach below me I see many a bull frolicing, playing games, yet they have failed to notice the sea being sucked away, as on the horizon, a tsunami is gathering force has it hits the shallow continental shelf.

The bulls are having a good time in the short term, after all there is even more beach for them to play on now the tide has gone even further out, right ?

This kinda sums up a certain aspect of this forum.

In the real world no one really knows what bulls or bears are. You just have people buying and selling houses.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Cleaver wrote: »

This kinda sums up a certain aspect of this forum.

In the real world no one really knows what bulls or bears are. You just have people buying and selling houses.

They might not know what they are but they are 'de facto' bulls or bears in a way. The person that isn't really comfortable with buying in the current climate is in effect a bear, the person buying their first place is in effect a bull, the STR a bear. but otoh do get what you mean with the "there'll be dancing in the streets of bulltown tonite imo" stuff

Mr.Brown_4

HUGE 10%+ year on year gains coming up... by Hamish, who else.

Hamish buddy, have you thought of offering your services to Dubai World? Bit of good publicity would probably do them some good at the mo'. You could pump this stuff out all day, every day and it might help their situation.

Thrugelmir

A different take on the figures.

The group says prices are now higher than they had been six months ago across only 37% of the country, with London and the South East most likely to have postcode areas where prices were now higher at 78% and 50% respectively.
But prices have recovered in fewer than a fifth of postcode areas in the East Midlands, Wales, Yorkshire and the Humber and the North during the past six months.
Property values are now an average of 2.9% lower than they were a year ago across England and Wales, with prices higher in just 2% of postcodes.

Seems that house prices aren't increasing as some people are suggesting they are......

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems that house prices aren't increasing as some people are suggesting they are......

really? i think you need to speak to these guys
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/feedback_form.asp

the_ash_and_the_oak

kind of a weird cognitive dissonance about figures imo - people seemed to deny they were going down and then some other people denied they were going up - kinda understandable to an extent w low volume and in a way difficult to be totally convinced of anything until the same actual house resells (or identikits in a newbuild maybe) but still a strogish need to deny the figures - "not in my area"

System

By my iffy maths prices could come down between now and Feb and still read 10% YoY.

But then I applied some thought to it, rather than just mouthing off at Hamish again.

chucky

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

kind of a weird cognitive dissonance about figures imo - people seemed to deny they were going down and then some other people denied they were going up - kinda understandable to an extent w low volume and in a way difficult to be totally convinced of anything until the same actual house resells (or identikits in a newbuild maybe) but still a strogish need to deny the figures - "not in my area"

that's because they attach themselves to whichever index fits their viewpoint...

this month the desperate types are attaching themselves to Rightmove as it went down this or last month and at the moment is the most volatile.

even the Nationwide index isn't the most accurate.

the funny thing is that when prices were going down the desperate types were attaching themselves to these indexes. there were low volumes then too, so why complain about low volumes now?