Premium bonds

Mickyk67

Hi,

I have a few hundred quid in premium bonds.. this year I didn't get a penny... keep 'em or sell 'em? What you think?

Micky

MrChips

If you didn't win this year, statistically you are more likely to win next year I guess.

Mrs_justjohn

Mickyk67 wrote: »

Hi,

I have a few hundred quid in premium bonds.. this year I didn't get a penny... keep 'em or sell 'em? What you think?

Micky

The question is what would you do with the money if you cashed them in?

Banks won't give you much interest.
It doesn't sound enough for a long term plan.
The chances are you would blow it and that is probably a waste:cool:
They are not doing any harm - why not just leave it if yu have no other plan for the funds?

Muppet81

I have £3,000 in them and have only had 1 x £25 in the last 18 months. I still think it is worth leaving them there with the SLIGHT hope of a win. Plus, it stops me spending the money, which I know I would if I brought it out into a bank account.

dunstonh

Premium bonds dont really form part of a decent retirement plan unless you have got a lot in all the other usual areas.

Personally, I dislike them. You are in effect gambling with the interest. Would you put the money in a savings account and use the interest to buy lottery tickets? That is in effect what you are doing with premium bonds.

A few hundred quid though isnt likely to win you much but equally its loss isnt much either.

mramra

MrChips wrote: »

If you didn't win this year, statistically you are more likely to win next year I guess.

Why?

If I toss a coin ten times and get ten heads, it doesn't mean the next toss is more likely to be tails.

MrChips

Yes it does. The chances are 50:50 so it is more likely to be tails so it can catch up. Think about it...

mramra

MrChips wrote: »

Yes it does. The chances are 50:50 so it is more likely to be tails so it can catch up. Think about it...

You are wrong I am afraid. The chances are 50:50 regardless of prior events. So on the eleventh toss in my example there is a 50:50 chance of heads or tails.

MrChips

It's like Roulette. I heard about a fool proof system where you just watch the wheel for a while and put all your money on the number that has come up the least.

mramra

MrChips wrote: »

It's like Roulette. I heard about a fool proof system where you just watch the wheel for a while and put all your money on the number that has come up the least.

Again, this logic is incorrect. Prior events have no influence.

Again using the coin example, on the eleventh toss the odds stay the same, at 50%. The tosses are 'independent events' which means that the coin can't remember what has happened to it. While eleven heads in a row is unlikely, once you have ten heads in a row, the unlikely event has already happened. The potential eleventh head has the same probability as the first head. Another way of looking at it is that any sequence of eleven tosses is as unlikely as eleven heads in a row, even if it looks random.

MrChips

My mate Dave says he won ten grand at the casino by waiting until all but one of the numbers from 0-36 had come up and then betting on the remaining number. I was surprised he was allowed to do this but he reckons the casino didn't rumble his system.