UK Q3 GDP second release - still a modest upward revision??

inspector_monkfish

08:26 25Nov09 UK Q3 GDP second release - still a modest upward revision?

08:26 GMT - The [ONS] releases the second estimate of [Q3 GDP] at 09.30GMT with consensus for the preliminary estimate of -0.4% q/q to be revised up slightly to -0.3% q/q (though there is heightened talk of -0.1% q/q doing the rounds in markets).

Recall, the initial print was a shock to all (and especially to the BoE which had f/c +0.2% q/q) and came against a background of improving surveys.

The hard data then, however, was consistent with the weaker Q3 outturn with a rebound in Sep IP offset by a widening in the trade deficit that was driven by an increase in car imports (due to govt scrappage scheme).

The second GDP release will also provide a breakdown into expenditure components with total investment, consumer spending & net trade seen as the main Q3 laggards/drags. Looking ahead, markets are expecting growth to return in Q4 after 6 quarters of contraction though uncertainty on its sustainability remains.

Really2

When is it out 9:30?

purch

In case anyone missed it, there was a nice 'positive' article in the Times on Monday written by my old drinking mate, (Docter :rolleyes:) Jim O'Neill



http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article6927651.ece

To predict financial markets accurately is even more difficult. Among the few tricks I have learnt along the way include three that are important for next year. The first is to be careful of being in the company of a lazy consensus. The consensus often can be right, but when it is based on generalised simple opinions, especially those concerning uncertain areas, it is likely to be wrong.
In this regard, I am pleased that we are more optimistic for world GDP growth in 2010 than the consensus, as well as more optimistic for the UK. We forecast 4.2 per cent for the world against a consensus of 3.8 per cent, and 1.9 per cent for the UK versus a consensus of 1.3 per cent.

.......we are highly suspicious of the accuracy of official UK GDP data. In fact, we would not be surprised to discover that, when the figures are revised in future years, the depth of the UK recession has not been as severe as reported. Moreover, it will probably turn out that we have recovered earlier than believed. There are many signs that this is the case. Among them — and especially pleasing — the latest unemployment statistics again show that fewer jobs are being lost than expected. Many will continue to debate the exact reasons for this; however, one fact seems simple: it is unlikely that employment would start improving if the economy were still declining.

inspector_monkfish

Really2 wrote: »

When is it out 9:30?

yes indeed

Really2

Forecast was spot on then (for once )

purch

Forecast was spot on then

There's a Rainbow outside my window.

inspector_monkfish

purch wrote: »

There's a Rainbow outside my window.

is your house at the end of it, or start of it?

Really2

purch wrote: »

There's a Rainbow outside my window.

Anything at the end of it? (other than Cumbria)

purch

is your house at the end of it, or start of it?

I dunno, but's there's a drunk Leprecaun stumbling around outside.....Oopps no....it's me FIL (not a lot of difference actually)