Interesting unemployment charts

StevieJ

The labour market figures published on 11 November surprised many commentators in a positive direction but Inclusion sees signs for concern in the most current indicators.
New claims for Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), the vacancy survey from the Office for National Statistics and the rates of JSA claimants staying through thresholds have all moved in negative directions compared with last month. The positive indicators are virtually all those based on earlier data or incorporate the results of past


http://www.cesi.org.uk/statistics/

PasturesNew

I hate graphs that don't start at 0 on the Y axis.

Generali

It doesn't look good. The worst number in there for me is the dramatic fall in job vacancies, especially when you consider that there should be a seasonal jump in vacancies prior to Christmas (even if the figures are seasonally adjusted, the fact that vancancies are so low shows to me that unemployment is likely to remain bad).

kennyboy66_2

Generali wrote: »

It doesn't look good. The worst number in there for me is the dramatic fall in job vacancies, especially when you consider that there should be a seasonal jump in vacancies prior to Christmas (even if the figures are seasonally adjusted, the fact that vancancies are so low shows to me that unemployment is likely to remain bad).

2 more years of pain at least in the unemployment figures.

However Xmas vacancies does not net out to as big an amount as you might think (see fall in South West employment as seasonal working drops in Sept).

In normal times construction usually falls in the run up to Xmas - you can't lay bricks in the rain.

Generali

kennyboy66 wrote: »

2 more years of pain at least in the unemployment figures.

However Xmas vacancies does not net out to as big an amount as you might think (see fall in South West employment as seasonal working drops in Sept).

In normal times construction usually falls in the run up to Xmas - you can't lay bricks in the rain.

I worked out an average of the last 3 recessions and it came to 18 months of unemployment continuing to rise after GDP stops falling. Given that 'credit crunch' recessions are apparently worse for employment than other sorts (???) 2 years sounds reasonable. Especially givne that the 2 parties that can win the next General Election are both talking about cuts in state employment.

Good point about construction - as a student I worked a lot in retail but only a little in construction so I guess I give the former more weight.

Generally speaking, unemployment figures are seasonally adjusted so the numbers on the website StevieJ linked to probably are too.

IveSeenTheLight

PasturesNew wrote: »

I hate graphs that don't start at 0 on the Y axis.

Their just being ecomonical.
The graph could easily be extended down to 0 in the Y axis, however that is just a waste.
There is no data or benefit to be obtained in graphs starting at 0 if they don't need to be.

lemonjelly

Wierd.

On the recent thread when the unemployment figures were released, I posted I expected unemployment to rise, & we hadn't reached peak. I still believe that. I actually think it'll be worse if we have a poor christmas at the tills, seasonal workers could be laid off earlier than usual, and also with some of the welfare reforms which are coming into force over the next 18 months-ish.

I can't recall being agreed with on that thread - everyone seemed to contradict me (sob!;))

I still feel unemployment will rise through 2010. I'm starting to think that 3.5million isn't unrealistic, & am moving towards the possibility of 4million. (Mainly because Inacapacity Benefit will be withdrawn, & there are over 2.5 million on it, & the governments target is to get 1 million of them off Incapacity & onto JSA IIRC.

However now I reflect on the recent thread. What does that say for peoples confidence in the economy & the jobs market?

Or am I just fick innit?

Generali

lemonjelly wrote: »

Wierd.

On the recent thread when the unemployment figures were released, I posted I expected unemployment to rise, & we hadn't reached peak. I still believe that. I actually think it'll be worse if we have a poor christmas at the tills, seasonal workers could be laid off earlier than usual, and also with some of the welfare reforms which are coming into force over the next 18 months-ish.

I can't recall being agreed with on that thread - everyone seemed to contradict me (sob!;))

I still feel unemployment will rise through 2010. I'm starting to think that 3.5million isn't unrealistic, & am moving towards the possibility of 4million. (Mainly because Inacapacity Benefit will be withdrawn, & there are over 2.5 million on it, & the governments target is to get 1 million of them off Incapacity & onto JSA IIRC.

However now I reflect on the recent thread. What does that say for peoples confidence in the economy & the jobs market?

Or am I just fick innit?

Unsustainable policies have been introduced in an attempt to stabilise the UK economy. As anything which cannot be sustained must come to an end, the current policy of borrowing huge amounts of money and 'printing' money to buy back that debt must come to an end.

The Government and the Bank of England both recognise that this policy has propped up GDP and employment and that it is unsustainable.

When the twin policies end then presumably unemployment will rise again.

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

The Government and the Bank of England both recognise that this policy has propped up GDP and employment and that it is unsustainable.

.

That is what it was supposed to do wasn't it

lemonjelly

Generali wrote: »

Unsustainable policies have been introduced in an attempt to stabilise the UK economy. As anything which cannot be sustained must come to an end, the current policy of borrowing huge amounts of money and 'printing' money to buy back that debt must come to an end.

The Government and the Bank of England both recognise that this policy has propped up GDP and employment and that it is unsustainable.

When the twin policies end then presumably unemployment will rise again.

I agree. The recent thread coo-ing about 6000 getting into work (conveniently forgetting the 30000 new claimants) was again a reflection of the we've turned the corner" syndrome.

I really can't see how we have? Unemployment continues to rise, albeit slower. It'll go on rising IMO.

When the twim policies end, there could be quite a spike in the figures IMO.

StevieJ

lemonjelly wrote: »

I agree. The recent thread coo-ing about 6000 getting into work (conveniently forgetting the 30000 new claimants) was again a reflection of the we've turned the corner" syndrome.

I really can't see how we have? Unemployment continues to rise, albeit slower. It'll go on rising IMO.

When the twim policies end, there could be quite a spike in the figures IMO.

We have known that unemployment will continue to rise after recession end, it always does, not sure what your point is.