Once a bear, now firmly a bull? Or once a bull now...

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I want my parents to sell their house!

I presume then that once they sell, you'll want it to drop for your own interests

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I presume then that once they sell, you'll want it to drop for your own interests

Not particularly. I'm a single person - people like me shouldn't really be in the buying game imo (if they fell below a certain level obv I'd do a rent/buy calc re-assess) but I just do whatever I think is best at the time

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Not particularly. I'm a single person - people like me shouldn't really be in the buying game imo (if they fell below a certain level obv I'd do a rent/buy calc re-assess) but I just do whatever I think is best at the time

I know quite a few people who bought as singles, but that's up to you.

Got a query, will you only reassess if they fall below a certain level or do you have a level if they rise above to recalculate?

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I know quite a few people who bought as singles, but that's up to you.

Got a query, will you only reassess if they fall below a certain level or do you have a level if they rise above to recalculate?

It makes sense as a single to buy if you think there'll be rises and you can have some free money but imo there have been too many flats built and too many people have bought them during the boom and I don't think getting rid of them with a profit of any kind is going to be straightforward over the next few years)

As to your query: re-assess only on falls, not rises (a fall makes a rise more likely and a rise makes a fall more likely imo). I'm paying less in rent than mortgage interest and I like where I live

nembot

I have a bearish viewpoint, mostly due to my own personal experience with above the line/below the line, in terms of actual prices.

Think we're way above the line at present and some correction is needed, don't think the QE and spin is going to change the end result.

It's like trying to fill a bath in the sahara, one drop at a time. You have a 20 gallon supply, but when that's all gone, the bath is still going to be empty.

chucknorris

Really2 wrote: »

I was bearish (30% falls on houses) but made my moves early, glad I did.
I can't see nominal bottom being more than 30% so on houses I am not really bear or bull.

Still feel we have a good few years of stagnation fo houses and slow growth in the economy.

I would say that at one point -30% was bullish rather than bearish, I suspected about -35% and still considered myself a bull (although not strongly so). I had loads of discussions with bears that thought -50% was inevitable, even a few days ago with someone from another planet who still believes -70%.

Right now I think it's very hard to call next year, but as I am already in the market luckily that doesn't concern me, what concerns me is when we get back to 2007 (nominal not real) levels, I reckon about 2016.

It's a luxury not having to predict the next couple of years though, it's a lot harder for someone waiting to buy, I guess they were badly caught out by this year's rises.

I can see a small fall next year but probably still above Feb 2008 levels, which I reckon is a marginal favourite (but not a certainty) to be the bottom of the market.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Still don't really understand the way the terms bull and bear are used on here (definitely somewhat different to how I've understood the terms in the past). Trying to come to terms with the idea of "I'm bullish on prices..think they'll fall 30% imo"

chucknorris

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Still don't really understand the way the terms bull and bear are used on here (definitely somewhat different to how I've understood the terms in the past). Trying to come to terms with the idea of "I'm bullish on prices..think they'll fall 30% imo"

Well if somebody said that now it would definitely NOT be bullish, however if that was said about 12 months ago when the spread markets were indicating about a 38% fall, then it would have been be slightly bullish then

the_ash_and_the_oak

chucknorris wrote: »

Well is somebody said that now it would definitely NOT be bullish, however if thatw as said about 12 ago when the spread markets were indicating about a 38% fall, then it would have been be slightly bullish then

I see what you mean its just difficult for me to get my head around (I always think of bull as "buy" and bear as "sell" or "don't buy" - its difficult for me to get my head around "I'm feeling 30% falls - lets buy!")

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And now I really have no idea what you are on about

Anyway, off to bed. Same time tommorow?

Graham before you think I went off on one at you yesterday I will explain why I did.

You asked a question which requires on the ability to look in to the future. In the near term we all know things will be tight but do you honestly know what will happen in 5-10 years time? There could be massive inflation and houses could be worth twice what they are now, who knows.

My second gripe was that you only wanted someone to provide an answer which could be picked apart or for the person to be made to look a fool.
You are not interested in the answer has it will not sway your point of view so it was just an attempt to make people look like they do not know what they are on about.
So in summary no one knows what the future holds in the medium term, but the idea is you react to the markets when you see them about to change.

I have sold, purchased and remortgaged in the "credit crunch" all based on how I saw the market progressing in the short term. I am fairly confident in the long term house prices will go up so short to medium term goals now are getting rid of my mortgage.

So if you are honestly looking for a view for the future ask the same question to a fortune teller, or any question based on a medium term view. They will most probably be as good a guess as anyones.
Before you think this is some kind of avoidance, look at predictions pre 2007 and then look how events have then changed markets. No one can account for things that spark a change in a market or when they will happen.
And of those that did predict it how many times before that did they predict it (EG 2004, 2005, 2006 etc.)
So no one holds the crystal ball of the future but we can all establish there is a demand for houses in the UK and that generally house prices go up over the general term of a mortgage.
That is why i asked you why you o not think this will happen has after previous crashes prices have still gone up. Why will it be any different this time? Or do you honestly believe house prices could be lower than what they are now in 10 year + time?