FITCH - UK Most At Risk To Lose AAA Rating

Really2

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

So, they will say "Here in the East/Far East"

cleared that up then !!

We are in the far, far east if you keep going for long enough.
Has we all know the world is banana shaped.

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

We are in the far, far east if you keep going for long enough.
Has we all know the world is banana shaped.

Although possibly going pear shaped.

purch

Biggest Banks in the world by asset size (£ billion)

Does that include 'troubled' assets too :eek:

StevieJ

lostinrates wrote: »

Why only compare to so few countries?

Yes what about the other thirteen 'AAA' rated economies.

BTW, Moody's are more optimistic.

http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2009/09/09/good-news-for-aaa-rated-economies/

“Moody’s does not expect ratings downgrades in the near future, especially after the recent downgrade of Ireland which had been the most vulnerable AAA”.

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

Yes what about the other thirteen 'AAA' rated economies.

BTW, Moody's are more optimistic.

http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2009/09/09/good-news-for-aaa-rated-economies/

“Moody’s does not expect ratings downgrades in the near future, especially after the recent downgrade of Ireland which had been the most vulnerable AAA”.

That article was written over 2 months ago.

September 9, 2009

Rather sneaky. :rolleyes:

StevieJ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

That article was written over 2 months ago.



Rather sneaky. :rolleyes:

Have you got Moody's latest update :rolleyes:

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

Have you got Moody's latest update :rolleyes:

No not a subscriber I'm afraid to say.:beer:

The markets will speak after the General Election and the proposals for the reduction in the budget deficit are announced.

So we've got a period of calm before the storm..... or the wind may change direction, but will still need the bailing out buckets.

Mr_Mumble

"Whichever government will come to office, we are expecting more stringent and more detailed plan for stabilising public financing. But if we don't get that after election, the UK rating is at quite significant risk."

This is the crux of the problem for me. Cameron has just rolled over to the bureaucrats in Brussels so the chances he is to put up a meaningful fight over unions and the public sector are slim. If someone calls him "nasty" or "unfair" he'll backtrack in no time. I can't help but continually think about California and Arnie's promises of being tough on taxes. California is now near bankruptcy and that's a state with some of the largest state sector pension funds on the planet.

Newsweek has plenty of reading for fiscal doommongers:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/220163
http://www.newsweek.com/id/221563/page/1

Of note for me:

For the United States, this underlying deficit is 3.7 percent of GDP in 2010 and, in future years, would be driven higher by an aging society and increased spending on Medicare and Social Security. Some other countries' structural deficits for 2010 are even higher: 7.8 percent of GDP for Great Britain, 5.8 percent for Spain, 6.9 percent for Japan, and 8.2 percent for Ireland.

Which shows that once the voluntary US stimulus is withdrawn it doesn't have anywhere near the problem of numerous other countries (presumably these figures exclude any healthcare bill).

and

It estimated the spending cuts or tax increases needed over the next decade to return a country's debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 percent by 2030. For the United States, the changes would amount to 8.8 percent of GDP. In today's dollars, that's about $1.2 trillion and roughly a third of the existing federal budget. But again, some other countries would face even larger adjustments: 12.8 percent of GDP for Great Britain, 10.7 percent for Spain, 13.4 percent for Japan, 11.8 percent for Ireland, and 9 percent for Greece. For France and Germany, the required changes would total 6.1 percent and 3.4 percent of GDP, respectively.

Again Britain is in more trouble than most, despite a relatively low, simplistic, debt-to-GDP number. The problem continues to be where will there be cuts? Never before has Britain had to cut public sector social welfare, education and health costs like it does now.