AN estate agent with a brain? Savills warning of price drops

Cat695

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/6510144/Savills-warns-of-W-dip-in-prices.html

House prices are expected to rise about 4pc this year despite soaring unemployment and a 14.7pc fall in 2008.

However, according to Savills’ new annual forecast, prices will fall 6.6pc in 2010 as demand from cash-rich buyers runs out and poor economic conditions push homes on to the market

After 2010, Savills is forecasting that growth will pick up again with gains of 2.7pc in 2011, 5.5pc in 2012, 8pc in 2013 and 5.8pc in 2014, when the market will return to 2007 levels. Savills described the forecast as the “extended lower case w”.

Seems that some estate agents can see that this price rise can't be sustained

System

Or, if you want to spin it another way - "Savills' predict house price bottom was Febuary"

Really2

Cat695 wrote: »

[URL]
After 2010, Savills is forecasting that growth will pick up again with gains of :
2.7pc in 2011,
5.5pc in 2012,
8pc in 2013 and
5.8pc in 2014,

Seems that some estate agents can see that this price rise can't be sustained[/url]

I hate to think what they are saying with the above then.

the_ash_and_the_oak

MissDBoat wrote: »

You would need to be a bit simple, if you thought prices were going to drop, to buy a house.

not actually sure about this - prices dropping goes hand in hand with credit removal/rising - price drops usually exclude people rather than enable them

the thing about booms is they extend the option to people that wouldn't have it otherwise - could be the only time for some - and if they really want it?)

it seems to have done spurs_nut ok? (not something I'd be happy with doing but...)

chopperharris

savills are more like estate agents in the correct term , ie they sell estates If I am correct.

In a downturn its always the last part of a sector to recover then?

mbga9pgf

I take it you bulls are intelligent enough to figure why they only predict up to summer then, I take it, instead of FY or full year?

Or do you need leading by the hand?

Ash, crashes preclude those without equity buying. Not a problem from here on the sidelines.

the_ash_and_the_oak

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Ash, crashes preclude those without equity buying. Not a problem from here on the sidelines.

thats correct!

ciano125

They're actually a firm of Chartered Surveyors.

StiflersMom

Phew !! Good thing that any price fall is seen as very temporary by these property experts.

Savills have typically underestimated house price rises, and overestimated house price falls ... so their view of medium term house price rises is excellent news (unless you are a HPC muppet)

brit1234

StiflersMom wrote: »

Phew !! Good thing that any price fall is seen as very temporary by these property experts.

Savills have typically underestimated house price rises, and overestimated house price falls ... so their view of medium term house price rises is excellent news (unless you are a HPC muppet)

You still don't understand, if it wasn't for all this stmulus house prices would be fast crashing. Prices are unsustainable, we are a country of debt. All these estate agent predictions are based on people who think they know about propert. They may be right if we had years of a sustainable economic base, but we haven't. Estate agents know nothing of economics and thus there prediction ignore critiical house price criteria. It doesn't matter if Savils are surveyors they are using a fraction of future data.

chucky

brit1234 wrote: »

You still don't understand, if it wasn't for all this stmulus house prices would be fast crashing. Prices are unsustainable, we are a country of debt. All these estate agent predictions are based on people who think they know about propert. They may be right if we had years of a sustainable economic base, but we haven't. Estate agents know nothing of economics and thus there prediction ignore critiical house price criteria. It doesn't matter if Savils are surveyors they are using a fraction of future data.

they're probably [STRIKE]a bit[/STRIKE] much better qualifed than you Brit...
remember you predictions up until August this year of 50% falls by Christmas 2009...