Some facts for a change, instead of speculation......

setmefree2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

yet when you ask "if it's all about supply and demand, why did house prices decline in the last year", you never get an answer. .

• Supply -
• There was a temporary oversupply in the market because builders were still building when the market suddenly fell off a cliff.
• People didn't really stop putting their houses on the market until qtr 4 2008 as the collapse of Lehman's brought the credit crunch to a head
• EDIT I'll add in this from Really

  2nd point as for why they fell since 07 Graham. People saw prices fall on a predicted crash and got greedy and all tried to cash out at the same time.

• Demand
• People couldn't get a mortgage because of the credit crunch
• People stopped wanting to move fearing unemployment and uncertainty
• People stopped wanting to move as prices were falling and they believed prices would be cheaper in the future.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Every market is controlled/priced buy supply and demand. Why do you think houses are any different?
If gold was not in demand do you think it would have gone up in price recently?

Now you are taking what I said out of context. I didn't say houses are different in terms of supply and demand. I said "as if it's the be all and end all".

Graham_Devon

setmefree2 wrote: »

• Supply -
• There was a temporary oversupply in the market because builders were still building when the market suddenly fell off a cliff.
• People didn't really stop putting their houses on the market until qtr 4 2008 as the collapse of Lehman's brought the credit crunch to a head

• Demand
• People stopped wanting to move fearing unemployment and uncertainty
• People stopped wanting to move as prices were falling and they believed prices would be cheaper in the future.

Again, thats fine.

So if thats the explanation, where were the "glut" of people who are creating this demand living.....if theres not enough houses for them to live in, hence demand?

The supply and demand argument is "theres not enough houses for the amount of people".

So where exactly did these people live when what you explained was happening?

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Now you are taking what I said out of context. I didn't say houses are different in terms of supply and demand. I said "as if it's the be all and end all".

Graham my full answer to your question was.

Really2 wrote: »

To be fair I talked about it last year (and many others did) that the amount of houses for sale (supply) was outstripping buyers (demand)

I expected for supply to increase this year and it did not.

Every market is controlled/priced buy supply and demand. Why do you think houses are any different?
If gold was not in demand do you think it would have gone up in price recently?

2nd point
Has for why they fell since 07 Graham. People saw prices fall on a predicted crash and got greedy and all tried to cash out at the same time.
This lead to an excess of property's in a market still expected to decline. Add to that constricted lending to those who still wanted to buy where else was the market going to go.

Supply out striped demand in late 07 - 08
Too quote yourself...
Simples.

I hardly see that any of that is out of context as you are trying to make out people have only started going on about supply and demand in the last couple of months.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Supply and demand must be the new buzz word.

In the last 2 months, it seems thats all that's talked about as if it's the be all and end all.

Graham_Devon

If we could concentrate on what's actually said, it might stop this thread simply going down the drain.

Please chaps.

As you know really I never said anything which you started suggesting I had, I simply said supply and demand is not the be all and end all.

You turned that into "why do you think houses are any different to any other supply and demand".

Like I said, let's just concentrate on what's actually said, rather than whats not? Just for today?

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If we could concentrate on what's actually said, it might stop this thread simply going down the drain.

Please chaps.

As you know really I never said anything which you started suggesting I had, I simply said supply and demand is not the be all and end all.

You turned that into "why do you think houses are any different to any other supply and demand".

Like I said, let's just concentrate on what's actually said, rather than whats not? Just for today?

What do you mean then?

Supply and demand is basically the "Be all and end all" of any market.
Changes in either can have big effects like we have all seen.

What other factors are there that are not supply and demand related? All the externals (jobs, IR etc) are just causes that effect Supply and demand.

setmefree2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Again, thats fine.

So if thats the explanation, where were the "glut" of people who are creating this demand living.....if theres not enough houses for them to live in, hence demand?

The supply and demand argument is "theres not enough houses for the amount of people".

So where exactly did these people live when what you explained was happening?

The supply of people who are going to demand to buy a house are living in rented or with their parents.

I don't think

"theres not enough houses for the amount of people".

that's the argument. It's just that when demand outstrips supply prices rise. When supply outstrips demand prices fall.

so, when trying to predict whther prices will fall or rise, you have to try and predict how say unemployemnet, immigration, mortgage availavility will effect demand.

I think the posters on HPC got it wrong because they didn't factor in the effects of interest rates going to 0.5%. They kept comparing the crash to the early 90's which was a totally different situation.

ruggedtoast

Really2 wrote: »

What do you mean then?

Supply and demand is the "Be all and end all" of any market.
Changes in either can have big effects like we have all seen.

What other factors are there that are not supply and demand related?

Ability to pay.

setmefree2

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Ability to pay.

That's demand......

purch

how on earth does any sane person expect to see significant price falls in the near future?

The fundamental flaw in this question, is the assumption that anyone who is a member of this forum is remotely SANE in the first place :eek: