State Pension Forecast - accuracy

fpell

My wife will reach state pension age in September 06 and her circumstances have been unchanged for some time i.e. she has not been in paid employment for many years. In February 05 she received a letter from the Pension Forecasting Team saying her weekly pension was forecast to be £27.06. In May 06 she received a letter about claiming the pension but the forecast was now £21.06.

This seems a very large margin of difference over a relatively short period for someone whose circumstances have remained unchanged for years. Anyone know if there is a simple explanation?

CIS

#6 seems to be around 2 qualifying years difference : do you still have the original forecast ? what did it give for the number of qualifying years/HRP years ?

The feb 05 forecast would use the NI record up until the 5/4/2004 , so that would leave 04/05 and 05/06 to go before pension age - it sounds like the #27.06 was the projected figure if she achieved the two qualifying yrs between 5/4/200 and 5/4/2006.

I know when I worked there we used to put people who weren't working through as not working and paying class 3 voluntary so that it would put a paragraph in and a projected figure of what the state pension could be if class 3 was paid.

fpell

Thanks for the helpful reply - having looked at the original forecast I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the attached extract

"We have assumed that you will continue to pay (or be credited with) NI contributions on the same basis as the last year we have tax records for you until you reach State Pension age.
If you have not paid enough NI contributions in at least one tax year but have been credited with NI contributions, the forecast will assume that before you reach State Pension age you will pay enough NI contributions in at least one tax year to be eligible for State Pension."

CIS

"We have assumed that you will continue to pay (or be credited with) NI contributions on the same basis as the last year we have tax records for you until you reach State Pension age.

They changed computer systems since I left as well as the wording, it seems.

It looks like they've based the projection on the last paid/credited yr she had, or the way Ive suggested above (most likely). Its often a case they fudge the wording in order to get certain calculations to show in the forecast.

CIS

It doesn't sound like's got a paid yr of conts ?, if she hasn't , she'll not get any pension until you claim yours(when do you retire ?).

For the sake of #380 of so, she can get the #21.06 a week, thats #1100 per yr, takes 4 months or so to recoup the money.

If you want to pay , you need to send a cheque for the 05/06 tax yr to HMRC before september.

fpell

Thanks very much - it sounds like the £380 option will be money well spent, as I have four years before I reach 65. We will get in touch with them after the Bank Holiday and sort out the details. Your help is much appreciated