Money website says BUY NOW!

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

2nd quarter in 2010 expect interest rates to move up even if its only .25%. Seems to be a general view in the City now that rates will move upwards.

really!? not in the City that I work in...

i'm not saying that they won't go up but which general view is this then?

or are you expecting CPI to shoot up next year?

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

really!? not in the City that I work in...

i'm not saying that they won't go up but which general view is this then?

or are you expecting CPI to shoot up next year?

Remember the 2nd quarter runs to end of June.

A number of well researched city economists reports have indicated this is a real possibility. A quarter point will make little difference to most people.

The only expection being those on life time base rate trackers ( sob sob).

Pressure will mount on CPI as the global economy recovers. As commodity, oil, gas prices etc will rise. Importing cost inflation into the UK.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Remember the 2nd quarter runs to end of June.

A number of well researched city economists reports have indicated this is a real possibility. A quarter point will make little difference to most people.

The only expection being those on life time base rate trackers ( sob sob).

Pressure will mount on CPI as the global economy recovers. As commodity, oil, gas prices etc will rise. Importing cost inflation into the UK.

that isn't the general view though is it.

i agree that they may go up next year but they could remain low until the end of the year. we just don't know what happens after QE as it doesn't guarantee inflation.

StiflersMom

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Remember the 2nd quarter runs to end of June.

A number of well researched city economists reports have indicated this is a real possibility. A quarter point will make little difference to most people.

The only expection being those on life time base rate trackers ( sob sob).

Pressure will mount on CPI as the global economy recovers. As commodity, oil, gas prices etc will rise. Importing cost inflation into the UK.

Its very reassuring to see the most bearish and pessimistic of commentators concede both that the recession is over, and that interest rates are extremely unlikely to rise for well in excess of 8 months

:T:T:T:T:T:T

IveSeenTheLight

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

In terms of cost, interest paid on a loan far out weighs the actual cost of the house over 25 years. To ignore that or even argue the opposite would be foolish! :money:

Assuming a steady 5.31% interest, this would result in the term of the mortgage over 25 years resulting in the same amount paid in interest as is paid in capital.

This does not factor in overpayments.

It also does not factor in that in recent years, there has been a lot of mortgages with products which are lower than 5.31%.

You would also have to consider what the percentage is during the life of the mortgage. Earlier years of the mortgage will have a higher capital and therefore affected more by the interest level. Later years less so.

Call me a fool by your definition, but on my mortgages, due to overpayments and low interest rates, I am on target to pay less interest than capital.

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

i agree that they may go up next year but they could remain low until the end of the year. we just don't know what happens after QE as it doesn't guarantee inflation.

At some point the BOE will wish to start to reducing consumer debt, there only weapon is interest rates. At the moment without consumer spend the economy would be in even worse shape.

I'm haven't read any forecasts expecting "high" a base rate by the end of 2010.

The trouble is the BOE now owns around 20% of issued gilts. Mainly in the under 2 year to maturity range. So pumping more QE into the system will pull yields on 4 year to maturity gilts under the 2.5% yield where they currently stand. Potentially increasing the likelihood of inflation.

Thrugelmir

StiflersMom wrote: »

Its very reassuring to see the most bearish and pessimistic of commentators concede both that the recession is over, and that interest rates are extremely unlikely to rise for well in excess of 8 months

:T:T:T:T:T:T

Haven't said its over. The fundamental issues haven't been addressed yet. We may well be at the second tip of the W........

I'm not bearish. :j


I trade long not short. As there is opportunity in every market. Its more a question of taking a balanced view.

Just as it takes a fully laden oil supertanker 20 minutes to come to a stop after turning off its engines. An economy isn't as nimble as a one man business. A one man business can change direction in a split second.

As I was taught working for my first PLC Finance Director, think outside the box and always look at the wider picture. Don't get bogged down in personal issues that cloud your thinking.