MSE News: Unemployment rises by 88,000

Former_MSE_Guy

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"Unemployment climbed by 88,000 over the three months to August to reach 2.47 million, official figures showed today ..."

Read the full story:
Unemployment rises by 88,000

Thanks to inspector monkfish for the original post. This thread was merged to prevent duplication

inspector_monkfish

09:30 14Oct09 UK SEP ADJ JOBLESS CLAIMANTS WAS FORECAST AT +25000
09:30 14Oct09 UK SEP ADJ CLAIMANT RATE WAS FORECAST AT 5.1%
09:30 14Oct09 UK ILO 3 MOS TO AUG UNEMPLOYMENT +88000, 7.9% RATE
09:30 14Oct09 UK 3 MOS TO AUG AVERAGE EARNINGS +1.6%
09:30 14Oct09 UK 3 MOS TO AUG AVG EARNINGS WAS FORECAST AT +1.4%
09:30 14Oct09 UK 3 MOS TO JUL AVG EARNINGS REVISED TO +1.8%
09:30 14Oct09 UK 3 MOS TO AUG ILO JOBLESS FELL 1,000 VERSUS 3 MOS TO JULY

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09:34 14Oct09 Sterling Gains On Better Jobs Data
DJ MARKET TALK: Sterling Gains On Better Jobs Data

0834 GMT Sterling gains after August jobs data came in better than
expected. The claimant count was +20.8K against expectations of a 25k rise and the unemployment rate stayed at 7.9% instead of the expected rise to 8%. GBP/USD trades up some 40 ticks to 1.5980 and EUR/GBP drops to the day's low of 0.9309.

inspector_monkfish

Lowest 3 month yy increase in average earnings excluding bonuses since records began in 2001.

Smallest rise in claimant count since May 2008

Highest claimant count rate since September 1997.

Highest claimant count level since April 1997.

Lowest quarterly increases in ILO unemployment level and rate since May-July 2008, although the 7.9 percent rate of ILO unemployment equals the figure for May-July 2009 which was the highest rate since Sept-Nov 1996.

Lowest number of vacancies since records began in 2001.

Really2

I really hope unemployment as now peaked. If it has that would be odd as we are still not out of recession yet.

inspector_monkfish

09:38 14Oct09 UK ECON: Modestly Better Unemployment Data

October 14, 2009

Claimant count came in at a change of 20.8k for September compared to expectations for 25k increase so slightly better than expected data. The unemployment rate (for August) was unchanged at 7.9% compared to forecasts for a rise to 8.0% so again another modest surprise. The data is slightly better than expected but still reflects net job losses on the month and thus does not necessary translate to better news for the economy just that it could have been worse. The data will not have much of an implication for the BoE outlook which rests more on their updated November inflation forecasts.

halight

So not good but it could have been worse.
Job loss is slowing but are we still looking at 3m by christmas?

inspector_monkfish

LONDON, Oct 14 - The number of Britons claiming jobless benefit rose by 20,800 in September, less than expected and the smallest rise since May 2008, official data showed on Wednesday.
But the claimant count rate hit 5 percent, its highest since September 1997. The wider ILO jobless rate came in at 7.9 percent, below expectations for a reading of 8.0 percent.
The figures show that while unemployment is still rising in Britain, the rates of monthly increase are easing, in a sign that the labour market may not be as hard hit by recession as some had feared.

********************************************************

ANALYST REACTION
PHILIP SHAW, CHIEF ECONOMIST, INVESTEC

"More encouraging that we had hoped. The rise of ILO unemployment by 88,000 was significantly less than we had feared and significantly less than a month ago.

"It does suggest that the pace of deterioration in the jobs market is easing quite sharply which is encouraging for the outlook for a sustainable recovery."



ALAN CLARKE, BNP PARIBAS

"The ILO numbers were much better. But given that the claimant count had already shown a decent improvement it was inevitable that the ILO was going to get better as well."

"We've had the real bad blow out in the labour market data now we've just got bad numbers. We're going to continue to shed jobs until the economy is growing back at potential or above and that is still some way off."

"On the earnings numbers, if the UK has got an inflation problem it is not coming from earnings. With underlying earnings slowing yet again. There is lots of supply of workers and not a lot of demand for them because vacancies are going down and that points to slower wage growth."



LENA KOMILEVA, TULLETT PREBON

"The claimant count increase is below expectations. Overall the figures reinforce perceptions that the pace of deterioration in the UK labour market is moderating.
"The wages figures suggest firms are controlling costs tightly."

mbga9pgf

Really2 wrote: »

I really hope unemployment as now peaked. If it has that would be odd as we are still not out of recession yet.

I think you have just answered your own question.

If Christmas trading is a failure and we see slips in expectations in the Q3 figures, all bets on levelling unemployment are off.

The figures were off sentiment. Claimant count increased by 20,000.

Want to guess what heppens after the election once whitehall budgets are cut 30%?

The number of people seeking work in the three months through August rose by 88,000, the smallest increase since the quarter through July 2008, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Claims for jobless benefit rose by 20,800 in September, less than the 24,500 median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 28 economists.

Bloomberg.

lemonjelly

I don't think unemployment has anywhere near peaked I'm afraid. What we hear in the news is the announcements. The job losses take place later - 3 months later ish allowing for consultation etc.

Additional closures/job losses are still being announced and looked for by employers. The majority of companies still seem to be looking for costs to cut. Here's a small example near me http://www.expressandstar.com/2009/10/13/more-than-100-jobs-go-at-virgin-base/. The article also highlights other redundancies which have happened in recent times all in 1 location. There are still (IMO) lots to filter through.

In addition, Jobcentres - mainly in the midlands & north - have been swamped by new claims. Makes you wonder how far behind they are in processing these claims (spoke to a jobcentre this week who advised they're at least 6 weeks behind). These figures have yet to filter through (& I know in birmingham jobcentres were recieving 10,000 new applications a week).

I was also reading an article where retailers were saying they didn't intend to take on the seasonal staff over the christmas period which they generally do.

It's not 3 million by Christmas that worries me, it's where the figure will be going january-june 2010.

abaxas

"Things can only get better"

lemonjelly

MSE_Guy wrote: »

Thanks to inspector monkfish for the original post. This thread was merged to prevent duplication

By the way, would like to say a big thanks to MSE Guy for this part of his post. I've seen some outrageous comments about MSE staff before, way out of order. I really like the impact and explanation of the above text. To me it removes barriers.
Cheers MSE Guy!:beer: