MSE News: Halifax: house prices up for third successive month

Dan:_4

doire wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Isnt Labour wonderful! Only took them 12 to 18 months to sort out such a mess! :rolleyes:

They have got my vote next May.

doire wrote: »

Wonder what happens when interest rates go back up, unemployment rises, QE stops etc etc etc

The large monthly increases we have been enjoying will slow right down, some months will be negative.

Thrugelmir

Dan: wrote: »

The large monthly increases we have been enjoying will slow right down, some months will be negative.

Neat little caveat.

"Some" of course being an unspecified number. :rolleyes:

StevieJ

doire wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Isnt Labour wonderful! Only took them 12 to 18 months to sort out such a mess! :rolleyes:

Wonder what happens when interest rates go back up, unemployment rises, QE stops etc etc etc

Labour - 4 more years, 4 more years, 4 more years

Many a true word (as the saying goes ), I will be one now voting Labour, after the Sun decided it could control the election :eek:

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Neat little caveat.

"Some" of course being an unspecified number. :rolleyes:

the insertion of the :rolleyes: (roll eyes) means that you disagree with his view/prediction...
i don't see you saying how many months this number will be either...

it's very easy to pick on peoples posts but not put your view forward :rolleyes:

IMO there will be 2 months negative before Christmas.;)

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

the insertion of the :rolleyes: (roll eyes) means that you disagree with his view/prediction...
i don't see you saying how many months this number will be either...

it's very easy to pick on peoples posts but not put your view forward :rolleyes:

IMO there will be 2 months negative before Christmas.

I wouldn't try and predict anything at the current time.

There are so many fundamental uncertainties that where we will end up is anybodys guess. :eek:

Though we'll be here in 12 months time (:o) still debating the issues of the day.

julieq

You have to bear in mind that the "crash" might not have happened at all, or at least not happened in the same way, had there not been problems with the banking system based on criminally reckless lending in the US secured against essentially valueless assets and then rolled up and sold on so that the original lender didn't need to worry about the quality of the debt. That really had nothing at all to do with the UK housing market, but clearly had a massive effect on the situation as it developed because it changed a lot of the underlying basis.

You can understand what has happened if you look at the situation as two completely separate issues, the global banking crisis and the overinflation of UK housing prices. There was a house price correction due against increasing interest rates in a growing economy, but the trend was for a stagnant market, not a massive deflation, there was simply no reason for that to happen. On the other hand the banking crisis was like throwing a boulder into the pond, big waves and took a long time for the water to settle back, but once it has we will get back essentially to where we were, so really the long term outlook has to be stagnation when interest rates start creeping back up again, and we also have the correction by currency value which I've mentioned a few times.

Anyway, we'll see. I still think we'll see prices falling back over the winter, but on the other hand there could well be enough panic from people thinking it'll cost them a fortune to wait to sustain or even increase prices further. I was being told earlier in the year that there would be a long period at the bottom, so there was no harm waiting. That's starting to look a little unreliable as a prophecy now.

lethal0r

time to knock base rate up a notch

the_ash_and_the_oak

julieq wrote: »

You have to bear in mind that the "crash" might not have happened at all, or at least not happened in the same way, had there not been problems with the banking system based on criminally reckless lending in the US secured against essentially valueless assets and then rolled up and sold on so that the original lender didn't need to worry about the quality of the debt. That really had nothing at all to do with the UK housing market, but clearly had a massive effect on the situation as it developed because it changed a lot of the underlying basis.

You can understand what has happened if you look at the situation as two completely separate issues, the global banking crisis and the overinflation of UK housing prices. There was a house price correction due against increasing interest rates in a growing economy, but the trend was for a stagnant market, not a massive deflation, there was simply no reason for that to happen. On the other hand the banking crisis was like throwing a boulder into the pond, big waves and took a long time for the water to settle back, but once it has we will get back essentially to where we were, so really the long term outlook has to be stagnation when interest rates start creeping back up again, and we also have the correction by currency value which I've mentioned a few times.

Anyway, we'll see. I still think we'll see prices falling back over the winter, but on the other hand there could well be enough panic from people thinking it'll cost them a fortune to wait to sustain or even increase prices further. I was being told earlier in the year that there would be a long period at the bottom, so there was no harm waiting. That's starting to look a little unreliable as a prophecy now.

kind of agreeing w some of this. Pretty interesting because there's been disagreement about whether what happened in 2007 was caused by what happened in the US or whether it would have happened anyway. The answer to that for a time seemed to be "Well we'll never know" but with whats happened this year it looks like we will know after all (if the conditions were there for a crash regardless of what happened in the US then surely they are still there and we will see prices fall again. If those conditions were not there and it was US-driven - then we won't)

Don't agree that prices stagnating at bottom is an unreliable prophecy though (think its really rather early to be dismissing that idea - at least until transactions are higher again imo)

Thrugelmir

julieq wrote: »

You have to bear in mind that the "crash" might not have happened at all, or at least not happened in the same way, had there not been problems with the banking system based on criminally reckless lending in the US secured against essentially valueless assets and then rolled up and sold on so that the original lender didn't need to worry about the quality of the debt. That really had nothing at all to do with the UK housing market, but clearly had a massive effect on the situation as it developed because it changed a lot of the underlying basis.

You can understand what has happened if you look at the situation as two completely separate issues, the global banking crisis and the overinflation of UK housing prices. There was a house price correction due against increasing interest rates in a growing economy, but the trend was for a stagnant market, not a massive deflation, there was simply no reason for that to happen. On the other hand the banking crisis was like throwing a boulder into the pond, big waves and took a long time for the water to settle back, but once it has we will get back essentially to where we were, so really the long term outlook has to be stagnation when interest rates start creeping back up again, and we also have the correction by currency value which I've mentioned a few times.

Anyway, we'll see. I still think we'll see prices falling back over the winter, but on the other hand there could well be enough panic from people thinking it'll cost them a fortune to wait to sustain or even increase prices further. I was being told earlier in the year that there would be a long period at the bottom, so there was no harm waiting. That's starting to look a little unreliable as a prophecy now.

Why cannot we accept that British banks and other lenders created problems specific to the UK ?

NR would have failed at some point in time. The fragility of its business model was exposed when the wholesale money markets closed. If NR had been allowed to continue for longer matters could have been far worse. In any event it wasn't nationalised until 6 months after its initial cash flow problems. Until the extent of its Granite securitisation off shore, off balance sheet lending surfaced.

Heyman_2

lethal0r wrote: »

time to knock base rate up a notch

With the preferred measure of inflation at a whopping 1.6% and dropping?