Cautious Coventry BS re-enters the 90% market.

Really2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The property bulls are looking backwards with little understanding of why the market moved as it did.

Could you explain that?
I presume you were forecasting last year that 90% mortgages at good rates were going to be available by the 3/4 of this year?

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The property bulls are looking backwards with little understanding of why the market moved as it did. Every market has a corrective phase before another bull run will commence.

For my part, I would'nt say I was bullish, merely that we have bounced off the bottom.
I have had a few self made multi millionaire clients buying lately though and the general sense from them is it's an 'ok' time to buy, and come what may the tenants will pay thier mortgages and they end up with some more real estate.

It's striking how these people I meet don't have anything like the in depth technical information as displayed by some pessimistic types on this forum. I draw parrallels with The Apprentice where Surallan favours good business insticts over illustrious sounding titles and qualifications. Pessimists armed with affordability graphs give an impression of competence, but in the end I suspect thier instincts just are'nt up to par.

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

For my part, I would'nt say I was bullish, merely that we have bounced off the bottom.
I have had a few self made multi millionaire clients buying lately though and the general sense from them is it's an 'ok' time to buy, and come what may the tenants will pay thier mortgages and they end up with some more real estate.

It's striking how these people I meet don't have anything like the in depth technical information as displayed by some pessimistic types on this forum. I draw parrallels with The Apprentice where Surallan favours good business insticts over illustrious sounding titles and qualifications. Pessimists armed with affordability graphs give an impression of competence, but in the end I suspect thier instincts just are'nt up to par.

Why would a multi millionaire know any better?

I know 3 guys that had one creative idea. Putting operating software that ran on computer mainframes onto the first PC's. For their trouble they got a $1 royalty on every PC that got shipped by IBM.

They all walked away with £50 million in the end. And never had a second profitable idea to follow......

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

Could you explain that?
I presume you were forecasting last year that 90% mortgages at good rates were going to be available by the 3/4 of this year?

In my mind the property market is similar to Lehmans. The bank is no longer trading but the assets and trades are going to take 10 years to unwind. Where the profits and losses are actually going to fall are as yet unknown. When Lehmans stopped trading it had assets of £600 billion. So not an insignificant sum.

The same can be said of the property market. All the individual trades (mortgages) that make up the jigsaw need to be unwound. And proper credit lines of funding need to reestablished.

Many seem to treat markets as a game of monopoly. Where it all stays again from afresh.

The Coventry is not lending new money. It is lending on the conservative basis it always has done. Merely directly funding away from other borrowers. As the Building Society is purely funded by retail deposits not wholesale funds, funds will be limited. More than likely it would give preference to borrowers in its own locality as well rather than a national basis.

Many lenders didnt take excessive risks during the boom years. So expecting them to take up the slack of those now departed is a pie in the sky dream. We are rapidly heading back to the days of boring profitable banking.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The property bulls are looking backwards with little understanding of why the market moved as it did. Every market has a corrective phase before another bull run will commence.

a generalised point that is correct but unfortunately has absolutely nothing to do with splitting it by bull or bear.