Now I may be a novice but I am trying to learn

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Sterling - Euro Rate



Right - This is the Sterling - Euro exchange as of today.

As you can see it is not too far off the depths of December.


My question is this- Is it? or is it not a good time to buy the £?


(My thoughts are & they are not whole thoughts because I have never previously been interested in the subject & I am just trying to work out if a bloke is a !!!!!! or not).


My understanding is The pound is likely to drop further because of:
our continued need of QE & Eurozone relutance
our immediate stagnation
the now definate likelyhood (contrary to a recent report) of a double dip due to £800bn



Anyways I was at the funeral of my father in law 2 weeks back & their was a another function going on in the same hotel at the same time.

The other function was a business club of some sort.

I was at the bar ordering some expensive beverage when one of these "business" people said to the pack he was with "its time to invest in the pound".


Now my question is this, was it/is it a good time to invest in the pound? I personally am quite satisfied it has further to fall & will approach further towards 105 if not below it.

Anyways. Does it make money in any way shape or form to have bought the Pound over the last couple of weeks? or was this guys just a misguided fool who now looks like a knob to all his friends?


What I am worried about is my lack of knowledge, honest...

purch

If you believe the Government will be able to substantially reduce spending, and substantially reduce their budget deficit, then this would be a good time to think about buying GBP.

If you don't, then maybe not !!! :eek:

1984ReturnsForReal_2

purch wrote: »

If you believe the Government will be able to substantially reduce spending, and substantially reduce their budget deficit, then this would be a good time to think about buying GBP.

If you don't, then maybe not !!! :eek:

So are you saying because its so low if you are in for the long term the gains can be much higher, if the Government arent wrong, even if it falls a few more points on top of the 4 it has already since he said it?

CLAPTON

basically lots of 'experts' (with billions to play with) are already guessing the answer to your question and are buying and selling based on their assessment of the situation.

do you feel you (or this board) can do better than they?

Generali

1 - Betting on short term FX rates is an excellent way to make a small fortune but only if you start with a large fortune

2 - Just because the price of an asset (any asset) is less than it was at some other point in time doesn't make it cheap, just cheaper than it was

3 - Don't think you can beat the market. The market is the average of everyone's decisions. Why would yours be better than average?

1984ReturnsForReal_2

CLAPTON wrote: »

basically lots of 'experts' (with billions to play with) are already guessing the answer to your question and are buying and selling based on their assessment of the situation.

do you feel you (or this board) can do better than they?

Possibly....

I certainly wouldn't of advised anyone buying the pound 2 weeks ago if I knew this meant people would be worse off if the pound rate dropped.

To me, at that time, it was a foregone conclusion it was going to drop.

At the time I thought hold on, I cant be hearing this & then thought maybe I was wrong & buying high made you money somehow...

I had to question myself & just looked at it again today.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Generali wrote: »

3 - Don't think you can beat the market. The market is the average of everyone's decisions. Why would yours be better than average?

That depends on how average I am...

& by he way, its not an average of decisions, its mostly an average of expectations, hope, information & misinformation.

mr_fishbulb

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

That depends on how average I am...

& by he way, its not an average of decisions, its mostly an average of expectations, hope, information & misinformation.

It's an average of decisions made on expectations, hope, information & misinformation.

Generali

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

That depends on how average I am...

& by he way, its not an average of decisions, its mostly an average of expectations, hope, information & misinformation.

No. It's the average of people's decisions to buy and sell.

That other stuff (and other things) is what drives those decisions.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

mr_fishbulb wrote: »

It's an average of decisions made on expectations, hope, information & misinformation.

Precisely.......

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Generali wrote: »

No. It's the average of people's decisions to buy and sell.

At a price & to have that price you have to have all the other stuff.