MSE News: Nationwide says house prices at 2008 levels

baileysbattlebus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Woo Hoo.:j

Year on Year positive on the first major national index.

(some of the regional ones already went YoY positive last month)

:beer:

I know it's a major index and it was good enough when prices were falling - but I must admit to having a bit of a problem with the Haliwide indexes of late.

The Nationwide don't publish the numbers of transactions and haven't for quite a while, which leads me to believe the transaction numbers are small. or small enough for them not to want to publish them.

And I know in theory the way they calculate their house price is not supposed to be affected by volumes - but I do have a bit of an uneasy feeling about that.

When I look at the latest LR figures for our area (Wokingham) - the prices are down 9% on a year ago, which is a big improvement on the 17.2% down a couple of months ago and the transaction numbers are up by over 50% since February.

I suppose which ever way you look at it things are changing.

Degenerate

heyman wrote: »

:beer:

timber!!!!!!!!!!

Generali

The price of the average UK home as measured by the Nationwide has increased by £19 which ain't bad considering the UK is enjoying her worst recession since WWII.

My guess is that a lot of the support to prices has come from falling supply. That in turn has com from 2 places, house builders not building as many new homes and the 'accidental landlords' (the evidence for the latter is mentioned in the Nationwide report):

“The surge in so-called ‘accidental landlords’ has limited the supply of property in the sales market and increased the stock of homes available to let. These differing supply trends have led to diverging price trends between the sales and lettings markets. Whereas house prices have risen by 4.1% year to date, the available evidence suggests that rents are currently lower than where they started the year, thus putting downward pressure on rental yields.

At some point interest rates will rise and that will presumably cause some problems to these 'ALLs' as their costs rise. So what happens then? Well that points to an increase in supply again as some have to sell. For the full picture we have to include demand. That may well rise with supply as the British seem to have lost none of their love for home ownership. However, it ain't necessarily so - it is quite possible for interest rates to rise while unemployment is rising and interest rates are below anything pretty much anyone has ever seen in pretty much every country on the planet.

Interesting times. I think supply will increase without demand. That doesn't make me right (yet).

JonnyBravo

Generali wrote: »

Interesting times. I think supply will increase without demand. That doesn't make me right (yet).

Hardly going out on a limb though.
I'll agree with you if it helps..... oh and many "commentators" seem to be saying this too.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

I know it's a major index and it was good enough when prices were falling - but I must admit to having a bit of a problem with the Haliwide indexes of late.

The Nationwide don't publish the numbers of transactions and haven't for quite a while, which leads me to believe the transaction numbers are small. or small enough for them not to want to publish them.

And I know in theory the way they calculate their house price is not supposed to be affected by volumes - but I do have a bit of an uneasy feeling about that.

When I look at the latest LR figures for our area (Wokingham) - the prices are down 9% on a year ago, which is a big improvement on the 17.2% down a couple of months ago and the transaction numbers are up by over 50% since February.

I suppose which ever way you look at it things are changing.

Most of the discrepancy is caused by two things.

1. LR lags badly..... It's at least 3 months behind. Nationwide is a far more "real time" indicator.

2. LR includes cash buyers, who as we all know are in a position to negotiate harder and pay less for property.

If you're an ordinary person, looking to buy a house with a mortgage, Nationwide is a more accurate reflection of what is going on in the market today than LR on a national basis. Of course the local/regional actual sold price stats are the most accurate, and some of them (RoS, SPC, etc) don't lag as badly as the LR. If you're a cash rich investor, you can probably still pay less anywhere though.

Really2

Generali wrote: »

Interesting times. I think supply will increase without demand. That doesn't make me right (yet).

But the current rises are on lack of supply, how much more supply will we need for this to become neutral (no rises no falls).
With 90% LTV coming back it is going to add more demand again.

I really do feel we need to get some family homes built fast or we are going to be in this perpetual cycle forever and never reaching the goal of a stable affordable market.

Unfortunately the UK demand never seems to drop unless prices drop off a cliff.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

Interesting times. I think supply will increase without demand. That doesn't make me right (yet).

In which case house prices should fall, which would lead to a decrease in supply, which would see prices stagnate, which should see demand rise, which would lead to house prices rise and on and on and on..........

the_ash_and_the_oak

I think 90% LTV coming back (a good thing) increases demand but the ones that have been shown here seemed to be around the 3.5x level. Think this is pretty good for everyone really. It should increase the demand but at a capped level.

Don't think the exclusion of this section of the market is a good thing for anyone - and don't think low transaction levels are good for anyone either (my parents need to move!)

IveSeenTheLight

Really2 wrote: »

But the current rises are on lack of supply, how much more supply will we need for this to become neutral (no rises no falls).
With 90% LTV coming back it is going to add more demand again.

I really do feel we need to get some family homes built fast or we are going to be in this perpetual cycle forever and never reaching the goal of a stable affordable market.

Unfortunately the UK demand never seems to drop unless prices drop off a cliff.

On the supply factor, I think it is not a simple case of more property being available on the market, I think that there needs to be more property that people want on the market.

There are currently plenty of supply from what I've seen, it's just that they are just not necessary what people want.

Really2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

On the supply factor, I think it is not a simple case of more property being available on the market, I think that there needs to be more property that people want on the market.

There are currently plenty of supply from what I've seen, it's just that they are just not necessary what people want.

Or where they want them. I believe the numbers coming on the market are at record lows, that is why you only have the !!!!!! left and rising prices.
The good ones coming on the market are selling quickly at a higher price (than equiverlent !!!!!! house:)), that is why it seems there are no good ones on the market.

How ever it is dressed up over all supply is very low (numbers coming on to the market against houses coming off).
As I have said my EA family member as told me demand is not the problem at the moment it is houses coming on to the market and funding (but the latter is a lot better)

To add weight (no he does not run frank knight first Google article
http://m.immo-news.net/index.php?action=article&numero=6639&PHPSESSID=a7d02623591b2039349f299244e77754#1

"The volume of property on the market in September was down nearly 30% year-on-year. In fact, compared with September 2007, the volume of stock was down by almost 50%. This tight supply has been set against relatively strong demand, with viewing levels and the volume of new applicants noticeably higher - up 80% and 30% respectively, again year-on-year. "